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2017 AFL: Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips

June 20th 2017, 4:39pm, By: Drop Punta

The byes are over and that means it's back to a nine-game week of footy as the 2017 AFL season marches towards the pointy end. Fortunately managed to come out of the byes around +5 units in profit, but I'm still looking to improve even more on a poor start to the season. Hopefully can find some winners with my 2017 AFL Round 14 preview and betting tips.

2017 AFL Round 14 Betting Tips

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks (Thursday, June 22nd at 7:20pm ACST)

The Crows are flying at the top of the ladder and are showing no signs of slowing down as they face the Hawks at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night.

Round 14 kicks off a horror three weeks for Hawthorn as they have the scary task of taking on the Crows, Giants and Cats in consecutive weeks. They are every chance to go winless throughout that period and so will likely find themselves stuck in 17th place. Although statistically possible, it's almost a certainty the Hawks will miss the finals for the first time since 2009. The Crows, meanwhile, just need to keep the foot on the gas to lock up a spot in the top four and that starts with winning games like this. The last time they took on the Hawks was in Round 2 of this year where they got a 24-point victory at the MCG. The Hawks managed to put up 89 points that week, but overall have averaged just 78 points per game this season which can in part be attributed to the fact they are only taking 8.9 marks inside 50 per game. The Crows are ranked first in this department, averaging 15.3 marks inside 50 and that's going to be a real problem for Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval this week. Their veteran defenders have struggled at the best of times and it's not going to get an easier with James Frawly still out and now concerns over the length of time Josh Gibson will be sidelined. It would never be surprising to see the Hawks get up and put in a big effort for a Thursday night game, but at Adelaide Oval against a scoring powerhouse, you have to think things could get ugly. Just a small play on the Crows to cover the line.

Tip: Adelaide at the line (-46.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)

 

Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers (Friday, June 23rd at 7:50pm AEST)

After starting the season with six straight losses and being ridden off for the year, the Swans head into Round 14 on the back of five wins in a row and now sit just one game out of the top eight. This week, however, they face another tough test by taking on a refreshed Bombers who went into the bye after demolishing Port Adelaide in Round 12.

It's been a long time since the Bombers defeated the Swans and even longer since they have done it in Sydney. The Bombers have also lost three of their four interstate games this season, so will find this Friday night game at the SCG challenging even with the confidence they gained from their massive effort against Port Adelaide. They are also taking on an in-form Swans who have averaged 102 points per game over the last six games, and more impressively, conceded just 70 points per game. The Bombers played completely on their terms against Port Adelaide and will need to do that again if they are any chance against the Swans. They should be competitive, but this is too tough an ask on the road.

Tip: Sydney by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1.5 units) 

Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, June 24th at 1:45pm AEST)

Port Adelaide play at the MCG for the first time this season with a clash against the Magpies set to be one of the more interesting games of Round 14.

The Magpies are still riding a bit of a roller coaster in 2017, but at times have played high quality football. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, showed us they weren't indestructible when they were dismantled by 70 points by the Bombers two weeks ago. That's probably why the bookies have only set the line at 3 points, but I think there is value to be found betting the Power here. They average 105 points per game - which is ranked second to their rival Crows, while they impressively also allow the least points per game at 78. No doubt Collingwood are in form, winning three of the last four prior to the bye - and most importantly they scored over 100 points in three of those four games. The Pies will also be buoyed by the likely return of Jamie Elliot up forward and Ben Reid up back. However, I think Port Adelaide are set to be a new challenge all together. I don't think it will be like the last time the two teams met at the MCG with the Power winning by 67 points in Round 11 of last year. Against a team like Port Adelaide, the Magpies will have to play more defensive than they have in the last few weeks and that's going to come at the expense of their own scoring ability. Have to take the Power at a small line like this while it's available.

Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-3.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (2.5 units)

 

Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants (Saturday, June 24th at 4:35pm AEST)

Last week's bye couldn't come quick enough after the injury riddled Giants lost to the Blues in Round 12 and now they look to steady their season and solidify their place in the top four as they take on the Lions on Saturday afternoon.

This is arguably the toughest betting game of the week. Yes, I think the Giants will win, but the question is whether they will be able to cover a 34-point line. If the Giants had a full-strength list, the line would be closer to 50 points - even with the game being played at the Gabba. Their loss to the Blues was damning, but I think it was a bit of an anomaly. The Blues have been a strong defensive unit all season and the Giants clearly didn't come to play. They would have appreciated the break last week and will be out to make a point against an opponent who concedes a massive 117 points per game. They did look strong at the Gabba against Fremantle two weeks ago, but prior to that were demolished by the Power and Crows in Brisbane, allowing scores of 150 and 140 points respectively. I think the Giants are similar beasts to the two South Australian teams and the young Brisbane defence will be stretched. No doubt the depth of the Giants' list is being tested, but i'm happy to have a small play on the Giants to cover this line against a poor Brisbane.

Tip: GWS Giants at the line (-34.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)

 

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, June 24th at 7:25pm AEST)

It was only eight months ago that the Bulldogs were the darlings of the competitions, but as we enter Round 14 of the 2017 AFL season they are nursing what the media are calling a 'premiership hangover'. It's not absolutely clear if that is the case just yet, but the last two weeks haven't been pretty and there will be a lot more criticism to come if they don't bounce back against the struggling Kangaroos.

No doubt the Kangaroos will come out firing and try to intimidate the Bulldogs just like Melbourne and the Swans in the last two weeks. The problem with the Roos is they don't really have the ability to back it up. They have played some horrible football recently and probably should have lost by a lot more against the Saints last week. Luckily they meet an out of form Bulldogs, so they are a chance, but the inexperience of their list - especially through the midfield - is showing. There is simply too much pressure on Ziebell, Gibson and Higgins to perform at the moment and this is where the Bulldogs should be able to win the game. If the Dogs do lose this one, you have to think it can be attributed to a mentality problem as there would be no other excuse. Expecting them to bounce back, but they still lack the firepower to put up a big score, so taking the margin.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (1 unit) 

 

West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, June 24th at 5:40pm AWST

The Demons and Eagles both come into Round 14 with 7-5 records, but it is arguably the Demons who will be more desperate for a win as they can see a finals berth on the horizon for the first time since 2006. It won't be easy, however, with this Saturday night clash being played at West Coast's favoured Domain Stadium.

Both these teams will take confidence from their wins last week, but the extra day's break and back-to-back to games in Western Australia is no doubt a big advantage for the Eagles. West Coast also have a fantastic record against the Demons, winning the last nine including six by more than 50 points - though that isn't the most reliable stat considering we are currently seeing the Demons play their best football in 10 years. If the Demons play like they did against the Bulldogs last week, they can beat anyone. They kept the reigning premiers to just 56 points and looked dangerous moving the ball forward. It's going to be a tougher game this week, but with Max Gawn back in the side and confidence at an all-time high I don't think an upset on the road is out of the question - especially against an inconsistent West Coast still lacking Josh J Kennedy. At the very least, I think the Demons will be competitive, so I’m happy to take a relatively generous line.

Tip: Melbourne at the line (+15.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit) 

 

Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers (Sunday, June 25th at 1:10pm AEST)

The Cats were disappointing against West Coast last week, but get a chance to bounce back against another Western Australian team as they take on the Dockers in Round 14.

The Cats moved into 3rd place after their string of wins at Simonds Stadium and are now back on the comfort of their home ground. They will, however, be without Scott Selwood who was proving to be an important cog in their midfield, while Nakia Cockatoo is also set to miss. Thankfully, Tom Hawkins will be back from suspension. They looked horrible without him as none of their forward line players - or forward line experiment Harry Taylor - were able to step up. The last time these two teams met was in Round 1 of this year with the Cats winning by 42 points and that's around the ballpark of how I see this game going. The Dockers simply can't score enough to threaten teams like the Cats and their last three games have shown us that the Dockers are struggling - especially in their pre-bye thrashing at the hands of the lowly Brisbane. Small play on the Cats to cover the line.

Tip: Geelong at the line (-34.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)  

 

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues (Sunday, June 25th at 3:20pm AEST)

Carlton managed the upset of the season so far when they defeated the Giants a fortnight ago and built on that win with a solid victory over the Suns last week. They are currently 15th on the ladder, but if they defeat the Tigers this week we will have to consider them a smoky chance to go on a late finals run. Richmond, meanwhile, are no certainty to make the finals themselves, losing three of the last five and slipping to 6th. It's a cliché because all games are important, but this really does feel like a 'must win' for the Tigers.  

The bookies have set the line for this one at -15 points, so clearly the Blues are considered a chance. I do, however, think this is going to be much tougher than the last couple of weeks. While it was a great performance, we have to consider their win over the Giants a bit of an anomaly against an undermanned team that simply underestimated their opponents and played very poorly. Then in the following week, how the Suns allowed Kade Simpson and Sam Docherty such freedom is ridiculous, while they never tried to quell Bryce Gibbs' influence either. The Tigers will learn from that game and should be able to get back in the winner's circle after a close loss to a reinvigorated Swans last week. As I say every week, the Blues are a strong defensive team and should stay competitive, so I will be taking the Tigers at the margin.

Tip: Richmond by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.05 at CrownBet (2 units)

 

St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns (Sunday, June 25th at 4:40pm AEST)

The final game of Round 14 sees the Suns travel down to Melbourne to take on the Saints at Etihad Stadium in what looms as one of the more interesting match-ups of the week.

With the fight for a place in the top eight so tight, the Saints can't afford to lose home games like this one. They managed a win against the Roos last week, but they didn't play all that well and will need to improve on that effort. There is no doubt they look like a more dangerous unit with Nick Reiwoldt in the side, but they are going to beat the Suns by locking down the out of form Tom Lynch and ensuring their midfielders like Jack Steven and Seb Ross get on top of the Gary Ablett led Gold Coast midfield. That's going to be quite the task considering the Suns are the top ranked centre clearance team in the comp. I do think the Saints win this game, but the line is too high. Thinking the Suns can cover here and are a sneaky chance to steal a win.

Tip: Gold Coast at the line (+25.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units) 

Note: Tip published before Suns' key outs including Gary Ablett. However, official play still stands. 

 

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