It was a cracking day at Ascot last weekend for Railway Stakes Day, which made up the first leg of the TABtouch Masters. The track was in terrific order and played fairly all day, and Scales of Justice took out the Group 1 under an outstanding ride from Douglas Whyte.
We now move on to the second leg of the Masters which is Winterbottom Stakes Day, and this is the most exciting race of the carnival, in my opinion. The weather here in Perth is absolutely scorching this weekend and temperatures are set to reach 37 degrees on Saturday! The rail moves out 3 metres to the 6 metre position but I'd expect the track to play fairly based on what we saw last weekend.
2016 Winterbottom Stakes Day Betting Tips
Race 1 - CROWN TOWERS PLATE 1000m
Great race to start the day with some promising young sprinters and it looks like the turf might be set ablaze here (due to the pace not the weather). I count four clear leaders but every single horse in this race has settled in the first two at least once before.
It looks a race between DAINTY TESS and DELANEY and they are tough to split being at opposite ends of the weights. Delaney was a great winner on debut for us and ran good time too. She settled outside the leader on that occasion, and from barrier 2 it wouldn't surprise me to see her hold the rail and lead. DAINTY TESS has the experience on the board with five wins and four 2nds from 11 starts. From barrier 3 I see her taking a sit due to the big weight. She has to lump 58.5kg but gets Oliver on board. If she takes a sit, I think she can run over the top of them late. SLIK SAM and FAERIE WHISPER others to include.
Tip: Dainty Tess
Race 2 - AMELIA PARK LAMB HANDICAP 1600m
Another good race and some good form lines in this, too. POUNAMU beat a few of these last start after running 2nd to Scales Of Justice two starts back. He goes up 2kg but gets Oliver booked to ride and draws barrier 4. Very hard to beat. STAR EXHIBIT dead-heated with Pounamu for 2nd behind Scales of Justice two starts back, and is 2kg better off at the weights on this occasion, but was beaten by Pounamu last start at equal weights. Was blocked early in the straight though and does get the services of Pike today so should go very close. The horse I want to be on, however, is OUTLAW PETE with Hugh Bowman on board. This horse ran a huge race first up behind Tradesman and Scales of Justice, and then last start was blocked the entire straight when finishing 2.25L behind Pounamu. Goes up in weight but actually 0.5kg better off than Star Exhibit and Pounamu, and from barrier 5 with Bowman on board he won't be getting blocked today! I think he's put the writing on the wall and we're getting $5.
Tip: Outlaw Pete
Race 3 - AVENUE Q HANDICAP 1500m
Really tough race this one. Prepared to side with JASPARA who deserves his chance after two strong wins in midweek company. The horse that ran 3rd to him last start has since come out and won, albeit at one of the country tracks. Should settle midfield from barrier 7 and he can make the step up with the form he's in. ASTRONOMITE has been a nightmare for punters this prep, going down at $1.70, $2 and $2.30 at his last three starts. He was disappointing last start, but from barrier 3 with Pike back on board he has absolutely no excuses today. Bet365 opened Macavity $26 and he's now into $5 (one of the traders may be looking for a job). He's a former Sydney horse who won with ease on his WA debut at York, before travelling wide the entire race last start to finish 4th. The stable sure know how to pull off a plunge so I'm very wary of him with Tim Clark on board. Preselection and Sigil also with claims in a wide open race.
Tip: Jaspara
Race 4 - J.J. RICHARDS & SONS HANDICAP 1200m
Best bet of the day here in LENIENCE and I'm very keen to load up at the $2.80. This horse is going super with three 2nds in his last three starts, with two of those behind State Solicitor who is set to run in the Winterbottom later in the day. The other was behind a horse called Coming Back who will be a force to be reckoned with in WA when he comes back from a spell. Should get a gun run from barrier 3 and looks very hard to beat. Main danger is GIGANTE who continues to run well in this grade, while DENDEE looks an interesting runner first up from a spell with 54kg and Tim Clark on board.
Tip: Lenience (Best Bet)
Race 5 - MUMM CHAMPAGNE-CRYSTAL SLIPPER STAKES 1100m
Interesting race for the two-year-olds with a couple of strong triallers set to debut. I'm tipping SOUNDCHECK to bounce back here after a fairly luckless debut. He missed the start on that occasion and was held up before working home strongly along the rail. Drawn a bit awkward in barrier 9 here but with Damien Oliver taking over today I'm pretty keen to get involved. KEEPER KEEN won that race with a sizzling turn of foot so deserves favouritism, while RIASC and RUBIA MISS both come out of the same trial and can feature in the finish here.
Tip: Soundcheck
Race 6 - TABTOUCH-TATTERSALL'S CUP 2100m
Another wide open race but happy to go with Pike's mount DARK ALERT at his third run back from a spell stepping up to 2100m. He finished 3rd behind Tonto and Bedamijo last start but was still open to improvement after such a long spell. Draws awkwardly in 11 but $5.50 is a good enough price. ZARANTZ poses a big threat after finishing midfield in the Railway Stakes. Reports are he's going very well and to have a stab at the Group 1 last week suggests as much. Bowman takes over which is a good sign but the negative is 0 placings from 8 starts at Ascot. Bedamijo, Kia Ora Koutou, Properantes and Tonto all hold minor claims, while YOUNG LIONEL could be the value at $17 up to this distance.
Tip: Dark Alert
Race 7 - TABTOUCH REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: THE ROAD TO ASCOT 1200m
The top three here in my eyes are LUKE'S GOLD, GRANLARADO and HARRY THOMAS, which is just about how the market sees it too. But it really is a hard race to get excited about; this is basically the WA version of the Country Championships in Sydney.
LUKE'S GOLD has won three from four which includes a city win on debut in August. Dead-heated with Sharkmouth at Northam last start and has couple of things in his favour here, namely Damien Oliver aboard and barrier 7 after the emergencies are scratched. HARRY THOMAS is the one I'll be betting on each-way here. Won by 3.5L on debut at Bunbury before just being run down at the same track last start. From barrier 2 here he will lead and could be hard to run down with 54kg on his back. GRANLARADO was eating up the ground when 3rd in that same race at Bunbury behind Danefin and Harry Thomas. He settled last and managed to get within 1.25L so if he can settle closer from barrier 5 (after scratchings) then he will be somewhere in the finish.
Not an overly inspiring race but HARRY THOMAS will give us a good sight out the front at $7 while LUKE'S GOLD is the hardest to beat.
Tip: Harry Thomas EW
Race 8 - CROWN PERTH-WINTERBOTTOM STAKES 1200m - Group 1
Outstanding field assembled for the Winterbottom Stakes and it should be a cracking race.
I can't go past MALAGUERRA here, especially because I took $4.50 about him immediately after Lankan Rupee was ruled out a few weeks ago. We were on him in the Darley and he delivered big time to assert himself as one of the premier sprinters in the country. There looks to be a fair bit of pace so I'd expect him to box seat from barrier 1 and if he gets a gap he should win.
TERRAVISTA is the obvious danger and brings a different formline after flashing home to finish 2nd behind Redzel first up. If he were to produce his best form he would win this, but we haven't seen him put two good runs together for a while now. The barrier draw suits him the best out of anything though, as he'll take a sit behind the speed from barrier 5 and get the run of the race. No surprise to see him win.
Perhaps the forgotten horse in the race is TAKEDOWN who won consecutive Group 2 races at the start of the prep before running 2nd to Voodoo Lad where he arguably should have won. He had to work early with the big weight last start so prepared to forgive him. If he slots in from barrier 8 there's no doubt he can run a big race here.
The best of the locals is ROCK MAGIC, in my opinion, but the huge concern with him is the news that he has bar plates on for the race. I've got the word straight from the trainer's mouth that he has a pretty bad crack in the quarter of his hoof so will wear bar plates to support his heel, which really isn't ideal. For that reason I am going to have to leave him out, which is unfortunate as I thought he's be a major player here and WA's best hope of winning.
The best hope for the locals might now fall to the promising STATE SOLICITOR who has worked his way through the grades, though a WFA Group 1 against the top horses in this race might be a bit much to ask at this stage of his career. FIRST AMONG EQUALS could be the value in the race at $23 having been blocked the entire straight at both of his past two runs. There isn't much at all between him and Rock Magic so the disparity in prices is wrong.
SHEIDEL also can't be dismissed for Damien Oliver. She has won an astounding 9 from 10 at this track and will probably lead from barrier 6. She has a bit to do to turn the tables on Malaguerra but she has plenty of winning experience here. VEGA MAGIC a rough hope but up to WFA conditions looks a tough task.
Happy to be on Malaguerra here, with Terravista the biggest danger and First Among Equals the value.
1st MALAGUERRA
2nd TERRAVISTA
3rd FIRST AMONG EQUALS (Best Value)
4th SHEIDEL
Race 9 - GET THE TABTOUCH HANDICAP 2100m
Another competitive race over the staying trip. BIG RED COSTA was advised to be going back last start but ended up 3rd, one out one back and bolted in. From barrier 5 I'd expect he would position in a similar spot and with only 55.5kg after the claim he looks well in. O'REILLY'S CRUMPET has been crying out for extra ground in his past couple of starts so the step up from 1600m to 2100m should suit him down to the ground. Pike jumps on and from barrier 7 he should get every chance today. MAGIC ROCKET might actually be the best stayer in the race and has good form behind The Forgotten One but from barrier 14 he will get dragged back to last, and with 59.5kg on his back (3.5kg more than anything else) he may struggle to pick them up.
Tip: Big Red Costa
Best Bet: Race 4 Lenience
Gets his chance to break through after three good runner-up finishes. Has run into some very handy horses but faces an easier field today. Drawn to get all the favours and looks the clear standout on the card!
Best Value: Race 8 First Among Equals
Simply ridiculous price at $23! This horse hasn't seen an ounce of daylight in his past two starts and before that he was beating home Rock Magic who is $8 here. The trainer is very bullish about his chances and from barrier 9 he won't get strung up today. Hugely over the odds.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
