Friday April 1st 5:15am AEDST (Fox Sports)
The 2016 Betway Premier League Darts enters Week 9 in Cardiff and that means it’s the final week for players to avoid relegation. The bottom two after this week’s matches will say goodbye leaving the top eight to duke it out for the rest of the season. That means the pressure is on Dave Chisnall and Michael Smith this week to try and make something miraculous happen as they currently sit in the dreaded relegation zone.
Darts is a great sport to bet on as the results are often pretty consistent to expectations and it’s not widely known so there are often great spots to find value in markets and make a consistent profit. For discussion throughout the Premier League and all darts related banter, join in the coversation with me on Twitter @BullsEye_Bets.
Here’s our look at the best bets from Week 9 of the Premier League:
The first match of the night should be a beauty with the World Champion Gary Anderson on a 6-match winning streak in the Premier League. James Wade is always dangerous, and does have the only defeat of MVG to his credit this season, but Anderson to win looks a sound play.
Both of these players are not heavy 180s throwers. Anderson has 22 for the season which puts him 7th in the league while Wade’s 21 sees him tied in 8th place. That’s an average of 5.375 180s combined, so I’m pretty happy to take the under 6.5 180s play in this one.
If you want to look at other options, I like Wade to have the highest checkout at $2.20, but I’ll instead suggest a small play on Wade’s high checkout line of 94.5. He’s covered this mark 16 of the last 21 major matches, and six from eight in the Premier League this season, including the last four matches.
The Power has been in great form this season of the Premier League. His only hiccup came back in the first week when he dropped a match to Barney. Since then he has been a rock and was especially defiant to fight back against MVG and earn himself a draw. He comes up against Michael Smith who has had a rough induction into the Premier League and sits at the bottom of the table. Smith can still avoid relegation with a win, but it appears unlikely as Taylor won’t want to drop this one. Taylor at the line look a solid play. Taylor (24) and Smith (21) are also not heavy 180 throwers this season. Smith has been off the boil while Taylor is known for switching up to his favoured 19s. The under 6.5 180s line again looks worth a small bet.
Chizzy has been the disappointment of the season and a loss here will see him relegated from the Premier League. He always appears threatening with his 33 180s the most of anyone in the league this season, but his checkout percentage of 34.62% is the worst in the league, which tells the story of his problems. His lone victory was way back in Week 1 against the equally-poor Robert Thornton. I can’t see Chizzy suddenly turning his form around here against Peter Wright and the price we are getting on Wright to win is excellent. Wright added another final (and runner-up result) to his resume at the German Masters over the weekend and he really has gone to a new level in 2016. Both are also strong 180s hitters and although the line of 7.5 isn’t exactly small, CrownBet simply have the price wrong at $2.10 in a market which is around $1.80 elsewhere so it’s worth a small play.
The Thorn is back from the dead after a win against Michael Smith and a surprise draw against MVG last week to get himself off the bottom of the table and out of the relegation zone. Points here in this match would almost certainly secure him another seven weeks in the Premier League. Thornton was simply terrible in the early weeks but the last three matches has shown great improvement. It’s just hard to know which Thorn will come out to play. If he brings his best, he could upset Adrian Lewis who is often just as inconsistent. Lewis hangs onto a top four spot in the league, but his average is the worst of the top seven and his checkout % is the worst of the top eight. He’s just not playing that well. Two players with form that’s hard to read, I’d rather sit this one for match betting, but wouldn’t deter you from a stab at Thornton to win at $4.50.
One market I do like is Lewis to have the most 180s. He’s had 28 this season which is the third highest of the league, while Thorton is on a league-low 15. Now Thorton did throw nine of those in his last three games, but I still like Lewis to get the job done at a good price.
Bet: Adrian Lewis most 180s $1.82 at CrownBet
A classic all-Dutch affair to complete the evening with a bang. Can Barney replicate his World Championships heroics and knock off the world number one? I think it’s possible, but it will take his very best. Barney has had close losses to Wade, Smith, Wright and Lewis this season, and if some clutch throws had gone his way, he would be sitting higher than his current position of 7th on the table. So his form is not as bad as it looks. MVG won another title over the weekend at the German Masters, yet his form has been a bit patchy. It’s crazy to say that but it’s only because his standards are so immensely high. The draw against Thornton was totally unexpected, and you feel that MVG really needs a win here to get back some momentum and maintain top spot on the table. He will be very focussed but I expect Barney to put up some resistance.
A market that I love to bet is the overs for the high checkout of Barney. He’s a high checkout specialist. In his last 20 major matches, Barney has had a high checkout of 100+ in 17 of those matches. A couple were longer than the 12 legs of the Premier League, but one of the three he missed was just a three-leg match. He’s had 100+ checkouts in six of the eight Premier League matches this season. Sure, he’s up against a focussed MVG here, but however you look at it, I feel that the line 86.5 offered at Sportsbet is extremely low. This line was 98.5 last week against Lewis, and Barney covered. He landed multiple 100+ checkouts against Chizzy the week before. There is the risk that MVG blows him away and Barney doesn’t get a look in at a double, but if Barney can win a 3 or 4 legs then there’s a great chance of landing this bet.
Bet: Raymond van Barneveld Highest Checkout over 86.5 $1.83 at Sportsbet
Make sure to read full terms and conditions of any betting promotion before placing any bets.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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