The 2016 Betway Darts Premier League enters the final week of the regular season with anticipation building for the Play-Offs which start next week. Three of the four semi-final spots have already been decided, but top spot is still up for grabs, as is the fourth spot which will go to either Adrian Lewis or Peter Wright, depending on their fortunes this week.
We nailed our most confident bet of the season last week, and will be looking for similar trends this week. It’s difficult to bet on match markets with players having different levels of motivations, but there is still value to be found in some of the other markets. Don't forget to join in the conversation on Twitter @BullsEye_Bets!
Here are our best bets for Week 15 of the Darts Premier League:
A meaningless match for both parties, but they will be keen to finish the Premier League season on a winning note.
James Wade will be bitterly disappointed with his efforts last week. With a chance at the top four up for grabs, Wade missed crucial checkouts early and was then smashed by Peter Wright. He’ll be looking to bounce back this week, but again, motivation may be pretty low here.
Robert Thornton on the other hand has been struggling most of the season. However I watched a match over the weekend between Thornton and Dave Chisnall from the PDC event in Gibraltar. It was a sensational match with something like eight maximums, some massive checkouts and both players averaging well over 110 for most of the match. Chisnall got the win 6-5 and went on to reach the final of that event, but Thornton was far from disgraced. If he could play like that in the Premier League then he wins more matches than he loses.
With those form lines in mind, and the lack of motivation around this match, I’m going to gamble and predict and upset here with The Thorn to get the win. And since it’s the last week of the regular season, I’m going to go for glory and take Thornton to win plus the most 180s at juicy odds.
Bet: Robert Thornton to win + Most 180s @$6.00 at Sportsbet
This is a match of mixed motivations with Adrian Lewis desperate to secure a Play-Offs spot but it’s going to be a tough ask against World Champion Gary Anderson. Lewis must grab at least a point here, otherwise Peter Wright has the chance to pinch fourth spot with a win in the last match of the evening.
Lewis was a late withdrawal from the Gibraltar event due to family illness. How that has affected his preparation for this match is yet to be seen. His form has been sketchy and last week he was completely outgunned by Phil Taylor. Can he lift himself for this do-or-die battle?
He’ll have to push Gary Anderson who is safely tucked away in third spot in the standings. He can’t finish anywhere but third, so this match has no meaning for him. However he’ll want to do good friend and countryman Peter Wright a favour and knock off Lewis here.
Anderson should win but with the different motivations, I think it’s best to leave the match betting alone.
I’m interested in the 180s market which I again believe is way too high for an Adrian Lewis match. Lewis averages just under 2.5 maximums per match in the Premier League this season, but has a total of just two 180s in his last four matches combined. Anderson averages just over 3.0 maximums this season, but the line for this match has been set at 6.5 or 7.5 depending on bookie, which I feel is way too high. Take the unders and enjoy the easy money from our best bet of the night.
Bet: Adrian Lewis vs Gary Anderson under 7.5 180s at $1.66 at Sportsbet (Best Bet)
Top spot in the Premier League standings has all come down to this contest between the two best players in the world – the #1 ranked Michael van Gerwen and the 16-time World Champion Phil Taylor. MVG only needs to draw to retain top spot while a victory for The Power will see him take the £25,000 bonus. So to say there’s plenty to play for here is an understatement!
MVG is a warm favourite and looks hard to beat. He won the event in Gibraltar over the weekend and has been pretty strong in his last two Premier League matches. However Taylor was also in good form last week, and besides his rare loss to Peter Wright two weeks ago, he really hasn’t done much wrong all season.
When these two last clashed in Week 7, it was a hard-fought draw but there were plenty of swings in the match. MVG shot out to an early lead before Taylor clawed his way back to secure one point.
I see this match being equally close with so much to play for. It should be a very high standard, and will be a great test of the talents of these two to see how they cope with the pressure. MVG will be tough to crack while a draw is a distinct possibility. We’re going to take the over 10.5 legs which looks a safe bet. I can’t see either running away with this and as long as they get a 7-4 result either way then we’re a winner.
Bet: Phil Taylor vs Michael van Gerwen o10.5 legs @$1.62 at CrownBet
By this stage Peter Wright will know if his fate is in his own hands. If Adrian Lewis has won earlier in the night, then this match becomes a dead rubber. However if Lewis has lost then Wright will know that victory here against Barney will put him into the Play-Offs. That’s will be a huge incentive for Wright if this match is live, and you would think he’ll be able to get the job done with at least a victory. However if Lewis secured one point with a draw, then Wright will have to win 7-1 or 7-0 here to advance which will be tough.
However since we won’t know the situation until the night, it’s really hard to give a tip. If Wright is live, I would back him to win at $2.00. So if you think Lewis will lose, then you could take Wright now. Otherwise wait and see and back it just before the match if you can.
If it’s a dead rubber, then who knows what happens. Probably best to steer clear.
Barney has been smashing the 180s lately, so the overs was tempting but I would prefer a 5.5 line rather than the 6.5 being offered, so again I think we have to sit out.
Bet: If Peter Wright is live to make the Play-Offs then, Peter Wright to WIN at $2.00 at Bet365. If the match is a dead rubber, then NO BET.
For a bit of fun, and hopefully some extra profit, I’ve put together a 180’s multi which I like the look of this week! One Hundred and Eeeeeeeiiiiiiiiiiiiggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhttttttyyyyyyyyy!!!
Thornton vs Wade – Under 7.5 180s
Lewis vs Anderson – Under 7.5 180s
Taylor vs MVG – Over 4.5 180s
Wright vs Barney – Over 4.5 180s
Total Odds: $2.84 at CrownBet
Promos may not be available to all punters, so always read terms and conditions!
_ _ _
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
The third edition of the National Electronic Sports Tournament gets underway this weekend with 8 of the best Chinese League of Legends teams duelling it out. we preview the event and give our betting tips here read more
Indigenous Round continues on Sunday with another three games on the card to wrap up AFL Round 10! We preview all the games and give our best bets here! read more
Racing returns to headquarters in Melbourne this Saturday, with a nine-race card at Flemington. Check out our preview and betting tips for every race on the card here! read more
There are approximately 90 Group 1 level harness races in Australia and New Zealand each year; we've highlighted some of most high profile races on the annual racing calendar here. read more
Harness racing form can be daunting to punters that are new to the sport and form analysis for the trots is certainly different to that of the gallops or greyhounds. We've listed what we think the most important factors to consider are when studying the form for a trots race. read more
Barrier draws are crucial in racing and they are especially important in harness racing. We've explained why barriers are such a key part of harness racing form study and their importance to determining a horse's chances here. read more
There are many common terms used in harness racing that may not make sense to those new to the sport. Our harness racing glossary will help you understand what some of the key terminology means. read more
Round 10 of the AFL season offers a fantastic nine game slate kicking off Friday night with the Swans hosting the Magpies! We have all of the odds for the Round 10 action here read more
Our 2019 Brownlow Medal leader was the only contender to pick up votes during Round 9 according to our vote predictions. Do we have it right? Check out our thoughts for each AFL match here. read more
We have nine players within three votes of the leader in the race for the 2019 Brownlow Medal after Round 8 of the AFL season. Check out where our votes went and who the big movers are here: read more
We're up to Round 9 of the 2019 AFL season, with the action kicking off on Friday night with West Coast hosting Melbourne. Here's the Round 9 betting odds and lines for every match of the round, with thanks to BetEasy. read more