Friday April 15th 4:15am AEDST (Fox Sports)
The Premier League threw up some interesting matches last week. We went 4 winners from 6 bets last week, but our best bet let us down with Peter Wright having a bit of a shocker. He’s been very consistent all season, so it was disappointing he dropped away last week. One thing we can read and learn from his performance was that the pressure on these players has dramatically increased. The best match of the night was MVG versus Thornton – two guys with very little pressure on them. MVG is assured of a finals spot while Thornton really has nothing to lose now that he’s avoided relegation. Pressure can make any mortal weak at the knees. I don’t care who you are or what sport you play, when the pressure is on, we can all crack.
So that’s something we’ll be looking to keep in mind with our bets moving forwards. Which players are under pressure to hold their spot or stay in contention? And who is playing like they have nothing to lose?
For discussion throughout the Premier League and all darts related banter, join in the coversation with me on Twitter @BullsEye_Bets.
Here are our best bets for Week 11 of the Betway Darts Premier League:
Robert Thornton vs Peter Wright
As we mentioned in the intro, these two players have vastly different motivations for the remainder of the Premier League season. The Thorn has nothing to lose, and that’s a dangerous spot to be in for his opponents. He has done well to make it this far after a terrible start to the season, and with a playoff spot unlikely, he’ll play with total freedom. That’s what happened last week against MVG as once again Thornton pushed the world number one all the way while averaging an impressive 104.23.
Snakebite Wright was the opposite last week. He would’ve loved to get two points against a scratchy Adrian Lewis, and he had his chances. Wright could only average 93.43 and missed closing out the match to leave with just one point for a draw. With three players above him all locked on 13 points, and Wright sitting two points behind, he will be desperate to get the win here or he’ll fall off the pace.
I feel that Wright can definitely bounce back here, but I won’t be tackling the usual average line market just in case the pressure takes hold again. However the 180s market looks appealing. Thornton has been hammering the 180s recently with 5 last week, and at least 3 in four of his last five matches. I’m happy to back him to cover the line of 2.5 180s. Wright is also good for at least three, so you may like to consider the match over 6.5 line at a better price of $2.10 at Sportsbet.
If you would like to bet on the head-to-head market, then I think Wright should bounce back here and get a win under his belt.
Raymond van Barneveld vs Phil Taylor
This will be a beauty with darts legends Raymond van Barneveld and Phil Taylor colliding. Barney would be disappointed with his loss to James Wade last week, but it really was just one mistake that was the difference in the match. He desperately needs points from this match to stay in contention for the playoffs however it’s going to be tough against the table-topping Taylor. The Power was very good last week to shake off reigning world champ Gary Anderson in a comfortable 7-3 result. Taylor looks focussed and will be tough to beat this season.
I would lean towards the match being a tight one, but for betting purposes, the 180s market is again of interest here. Barney hasn’t been bad on the maximums with at least three in each of his last five matches, and eight of ten matches this season. Backing him to cover the 2.5 line at $1.66 at Bet365 is certainly a viable play. However we’re looking for a better price so we’ll take Barney to throw more 180s than Taylor. Both players have the same number of 180s this season (31), but Taylor’s number is inflated with the seven he threw against Dave Chisnall and the five against Robert Thornton. Taylor has only hit three 180s once in his last five matches, while Barney has been far more consistent with this stat throughout the season.
Bet: Raymond van Barneveld most 180s at $2.25 at Sportsbet (best bet)
James Wade vs Adrian Lewis
An intriguing match-up will see James Wade take on Adrian Lewis. Two rather contrasting characters and styles offers some great betting options for us. The winner will be in the top four at the end of the evening while the loser will be back into the pack. Pressure!
Wade is usually cool as ice though, and he has been in some decent form recently, drawing with Gary Anderson and defeating Raymond van Barneveld before a tough loss against Phil Taylor in his second match of the night last week.
I believe Wade is a clutch player who can rise to the occasion in this match. As we saw against Barney last week, Wade will be tough to break and if he can land a big checkout then I don’t think a win is beyond him here at juicy odds of $2.87 at Bet365. For a safer option, you could consider the over 10.5 legs bet at CrownBet at $1.59. That would mean that a 7-4 result in either direction would get you the chocolates.
Adrian Lewis has been up and down all season which makes him a hard man to bet on as you never know what you will get. Last week, Lewis didn’t handle the pressure too well against Peter Wright.
He escaped with a draw, but should’ve lost the match, and only threw a 88.68 average. He has only achieved a 100+ average once in his last 13 major matches, and his season average of 97.32 is only ahead of Robert Thornton of those remaining in the Premier League. Sportsbet have set his line at 98.5, and while Lewis could certainly come out and better that, I think when you factor in his poor recent form and stats, as well as the pressure that will be on the result of this match, a case could definitely be made to make a play at the unders.
The checkout markets are another interesting one where Lewis is favoured due to the fact that he’s the favourite in the match. Lewis has landed a ton-plus checkout in just 3 of his 10 Premier League matches this season. Compare that to Wade who has checked out three figures on 8 of 11 occasions this season, including a couple of massive checkouts earlier this season. We know that Wade is brilliant on his checkouts, and we think he’s going to be competitive in this match, so it seems a great bet to side with him in this market as well.
We could take the overs on the 98.5 checkout line at Sportsbet, but I think we’ll go with the head-to-head match-up and take Wade for the high checkout of the match versus Lewis.
Michael van Gerwen vs Gary Anderson
The world number one against the reigning World Champion will be a classic contest this week.
MVG has definitely been off the boil in recent times, and after three draws in a row, he would’ve been relieved to get the two points against Robert Thornton last week in a high-quality match. There were signs that MVG was back to his best with some thrilling scoring and a 117.95 average, and he did reach three finals in the Players Championship during the week, but there are still concerns for the Dutchman. He lost two of those finals – one to Benito Van De Pas and the other to Ian White in a shock 0-6 whitewash, which truly is a remarkable result for a world number one.
He’ll need to return to his best against Anderson who was also a bit scratchy last week in a 7-3 loss to Phil Taylor. Anderson will need to improve greatly from that to beat MVG. The only players in the Premier League that Anderson has lost to this season have been Taylor and MVG and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue here.
I can’t see any value in the other markets, so we’ll stick with a MVG victory as the play.
Bet: Michael van Gerwen to WIN at $1.66 at Sportsbet
Raymond van Barneveld vs Robert Thornton
Barney and The Thorn back up for their second match of the evening in a battle of the bottom of the table. Barney will be hoping to grab a win and starts favourite in this match at $1.96. While I think Barney should win, and wouldn’t talk you out of betting that, it’s hard to recommend that as a bet because this match could go down to the wire. Thornton will fancy his chances of grabbing two points and if he played like last week, he should go very close!
Rather than betting the match result, we’ll look at the 180s market for reasons we’ve already talked about in the earlier matches. With this match being their second of the evening, you would hope they will have found their groove by this point, so the maximums will again take a hammering. So we’ll back the over 5.5 line $1.80.
Bet: Match over 5.5 180s at $1.80 at Bet365
Make sure to read full terms and conditions of any betting promotion before placing any bets.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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