An exciting midweek horse race is to take place at Newcastle race course on Wednesday and here is @Tim_Tips 2016 Newcastle Newmarket Handicap Preview and Betting Tips.
*** TAKE NOTE: The Newcastle races were cancelled at the last minute and the Newmarket Handicap was POSTPONED until Slipper Day where it will be the new Race 10 on the card to run out at Rosehill this Saturday. Any changes to the analysis below pertaining to a track change will be noted before the running of the Newmarket Handicap.***
Newcastle Newmarket Handicap 1350m - Group 3
Midweek racing receives a bit of flavour today with a respectable field set to contest the Group 3 Newcastle Newmarket Handicap. The 1350m event has a mix of previous Group 1 winners competing against potential Group 1 quality horses, as well as a few progressive benchmark types taking on a Group race for the first time.
The Newcastle track is currently a Good 4 but there looks a good possibility of showers throughout the day with up to 4mm of rain predicted which could see the track downgraded. I'm not sure it will quite get to Heavy but if the rain comes there's every chance we'll be racing on a Slow track come the Newmarket.
Pace in the race looks hot with Ecuador and Religify the likely leaders, as well as last start winner Bull Point who led from start to finish. Artistry will be looking to slot in from her awkward gate, while Lunar Rise should enjoy the run of the race from barrier 5. Sadler's Lake Aomen and Nancy will be fighting for spots in midfield, while Famous Seamus and River Lad could go back from their wide draws. Queen of Kariba and Amovatio look to be the backmarkers.
FAMOUS SEAMUS: Poor run first up but he was expected to take a lot of benefit from that and hsi 2nd up record suggests he is set to improves sharply. Won a decent Group 3 over a similar distance and with the same weight at his final start last prep so if he found that form he'd be competitive here.
RIVER LAD: Stradbroke Handicap winner back in 2014 but has struggled to rediscover that form. His run last start was actually respectable but he'd need to improve quite significantly to win this.
ECUADOR: Drops back from a WFA Group 1 to a midweek Group 3 here and he does have a decent record at both this distance and second up. He won't mind if any rain falls and from barrier 6 he will definitely be in the first two or three in running. Looks a strong chance.
AMOVATIO: Slightly disappointing first up when only managing a midfield finish in Canberra but he did finish the race off nicely. Bowman sticks with him which is a positive and from barrier 7 he should get a nice cart into the race. Could improve sharply and wouldn't surprise me to see him win.
SADLER'S LAKE: This is the one to be backing if the rain falls. Won very well first up last prep and has had two trials leading into this. Gets blinkers on for the first time and draws well in barrier 1. My concern would be the 1350m but he won first up over 1400m last prep so it may not be too much of a worry.
BULL POINT: Showed he could lead last start when he led all the way to win at big odds. The form out of that race has stacked up and he's won a trial since that win too. The wide barrier could see him go forward again here but the 1350m is the concern.
AOMEN: Has performed respectably around this level in his last few preps but hasn't broke through for a win for a while. Can produce a decent run fresh and from barrier 4 will get the right run but this is a decent race and it's hard to see him winning first up here.
LUNAR RISE: Huge performance two starts back where he traveled 4 wide without cover under 60.5kg on a wet track and stuck it out for a win. Backed that up with a decent performance to run 3rd in Canberra last start. This is a much harder race but he will get the run of the race from barrier 5 and he is going very well.
ARTISTRY: Won 4 out of 5 last prep and resumed this prep with a very commendable 4th after traveling 4 wide the entire race. Think she will improve off that run and if she can find cover today she rates a big chance. My concern would be if the rain came as she is 0/2 on wet tracks.
RELIGIFY: Led from start to finish last start under a big weight over this distance. Draws wide today so can expect him to roll forward in search of the lead, especially with only 54kg. Would need a firm track as both his starts on wet tracks have been unsuccessful.
QUEEN OF KARIBA: Went out an 80/1 pop in a Group 2 last start and ran on fairly well to finish 3.3L off Solicit. Not convinced about her ability over the distance as she is 0/5 but the rain could bring her right into this at big odds.
NANCY: Promising mare from the Sowden yard that resumed with a decent 3rd at Randwick. Should have taken a lot of benefit from that run, draws well in barrier 3 and drops to 54kg. She has a win on a Soft track to her name so the rain shouldn't matter too much. Big chance.
Summary
I'm tipping there will be a bit of rain about which should see the track downgraded to at least Soft. With that in mind I'm going to go for a bit of value here with SADLER'S LAKE who comes into this first up from a spell. His best form is on wet tracks and his win first up last prep was very impressive over a similar distance to what he gets today. He also has the blinkers on for the first time and from barrier 1 I'd expect him to be handy to the speed. The $8 currently on offer looks a decent price for an each way bet.
The two Snowden runners should be in the finish and both stand as winning chances. Nancy ran 3rd when first up and should have taken plenty of benefit from the run. She has a win on a wet track to her name so she should be there at the finish. Artistry ran a huge ran first up after covering ground and if the ground was guaranteed to be firm she would stand as a stronger winning chance but I have concerns over the potentially wet track.
Ecuador drops down from Group 1 company to contest this. He draws barrier 6 so should be in the first few runners. He holds a good second up record and a good record at this distance. It was only last year he ran 2nd in an Epsom Handicap to Winx so if he brings that form here he will win.
Famous Seamus, Amovatio and Lunar Rise all others to consider at bigger odds. Bull Point won well last start but I can't back him to repeat that here.
1st SADLER'S LAKE
2nd NANCY
3rd ECUADOR
4th ARTISTRY
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
