2016 Magic Millions Preview & Tips

January 8th 2016, 5:29pm, By: tim_tips

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Jeep Magic Million 2YO Classic 1200m

Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast has become a tremendous event on the annual racing calendar with over $10million up for grabs across the 9 races on the card.

The 2YO Classic is the headline act, along with the 3YO Guineas, with both races worth an astounding $1.2million to the winner. Generally this is where some the most exciting 2YO's are understandably on show, and the day acts as a nice lead up to the Golden Slipper in March.

This year's version of the 2YO Classic sees a very short priced favourite in Capitalist for Peter and Paul Snowden, who have a history of making their mark in the country's biggest races. With a capacity field of 16 set to line up it will be interesting to see if this potential star can dominate this race in the same fashion as his only two starts so far.

The Gold Coast track typically doesn't favour front runners, with former race caller Alan Thomas frequently mentioning how hard it is to lead and win here. The surface itself should return to the Good range after a couple of hot days that followed the downpour of rain during the week. 

This race looks like it is going to be run at break-neck speed from the moment the gates open. Claro El Banco, Dieters, Sundance, Just Orm, Highland Beat, Zelady's Night Out, Slumber Party and Mooshakissa have all led in most of their starts! That is 9 of the 16 horses engaged that have led in their races, and half of those have drawn out wide meaning we could see fireworks early on. 

As is the case with many good 2YO's though, if they are the best horse in the race they normally just go to the front to stay out of trouble so it is likely we will see a couple of those ridden differently today. However, the tempo still looks to be extremely hot, which will enhance the chances of those running on even more.

Let's go through each runner:

CAPITALIST: Has the potential to be a star 2YO after winning the Wyong Magic Millions and Breeders Plate effortlessly. The only way I see him getting beat is if he gets stuck behind tiring horses from barrier 2, because he won't be leading. With even luck he just wins.

CLARO EL BANCO: Won the Magic Millions Clockwise two starts ago at Ballarat but weakened badly after leading last start in the Wyong Magic Millions won by Capitalist. Drawn the car park, hard to see him featuring.

DIETERS: Undefeated after recording back to back wins at Doomben. He's one that has been ridden up on speed at his two runs so we may or may not see him ridden cold. Can't knock his form. Eachway chance.

NIKITAS: Bolted in first up and then ran on ok in the BJ McLachlan last start behind Zelady's Night Out. Gets a gun run from barrier 3 and if the pace is as hot as expected it will suit him.

NICCOLANCE: The other runner for Peter and Paul Snowden and they actually said during the week that they expect him to be very competitive in this. Finished 2nd behind Capitalist last start but was comfortably beaten and I can't see him turning the tables, but could run 2nd to him again.

JUST ORM: Ran 3rd to Dieters on debut before winning at the Sunshine Coast last start. From barrier 8 he will likely be looking for the lead. Think there are a few better than him in this.

PUNISHING: Been well beaten in his last two starts and draws the car park here. Blinkers go on for the first time and Damian Browne is a positive jockey booking but I can't have him after his last two performances.

HIGHLAND BEAT: Very interesting runner for David Hayes and Tom Dabernig. Won easily at Moonee Valley two starts ago before coming to Sydney and running 2nd last start. Winkers applied here and he's from a very strong stable. Watch.

ZELADY'S NIGHT OUT: Undefeated from three starts to date including a good win in the Group 3 BJ McLachlan last start. However, she is another that has led or settled on speed at all three runs but from the second widest barrier she won't get it easy today.

CANDIKA: Undefeated from two starts but they were much easier races than what she faces today. Draws the inside gate which will help her cause although she will settle off the speed and be looking for a run. Tough task.

FARAWAY TOWN: Racing in decent form but I'm not so sure about the strength of the races she has bee competing in. Wide barrier doesn't help either so she would need to improve quite significantly.

SLUMBER PARTY: Run down by Zelady's Night Out in the BJ McLachlan last start. She was first up on that occasion so should improve into this but she draws the widest barrier which makes her life very tough.

MOOSHAKISSA: Convincing win two starts back in a maiden at Warwick Farm before finishing runner up at Rosehill last start. This is much tougher and the barrier doesn't help.

RARE OCCURRENCE: Decent win on debut at Doomben when she got taken wide on the turn. Hasn't been seen since and comes into this first up. Might not be good enough but keep an eye on her at big odds.

RAINY DAY WOMAN: Gets a run with the scratching of Sundance and gets a nice run from barrier 7 but will still find this too tough.

ZAFINA: Still a maiden and looks tested in this field, especially from the widest barrier.

Summary

Two scratchings so far with both Sundance and Conchita coming out of the race which is very disappointing because I thought both stood a good chance of filling the placings, especially Conchita. Nevertheless I find it hard to see anything beating the hot pot CAPITALIST here. He brings the best form to the race and the races he has won have been in dominant fashion without being fully extended. Should settle just off the speed and with even luck he should be winning this.

I think the Snowden stable can quinella the race with NICCOLANCE who they did give a decent push for during the week. He finished 2nd to Capitalist last start in the Wyong Magic Millions and while I don't think he can turn that around, he is a decent chance of running 2nd again. Competing with him for that spot could be DIETERS, NIKITAS, ZELADY'S NIGHT OUT, SLUMBER PARTY and HIGHLAND BEAT at big odds.

Looks a great race for 2nd!

1st CAPITALIST
2nd NICCOLANCE
3rd NIKITAS
4th HIGHLAND BEAT

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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