Midweek racing will see us head south for the running of the 2016 Launceston Cup. Tasmania's finest have been joined by some mainland raiders to form a high quality field for the Group 3 race and our resident horse racing expert @Tim_Tips is here to offer up his best horse racing tips for the race.
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Betfair Exchange Launceston Cup 2400m - Group 3
The running of the Group 3 Launceston Cup takes place on Wednesday night and Before You Bet has a comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the 2400m event.
Though I don't have exact figures for 2400m races at Launceston, statistics indicate that barriers 2-7 are most effective over the 2100m at this track. What we know for sure and certain, however, is the track will be very wet for the running of this year's Cup.
The track is currently rated a Soft 5 but there is 8-20mm of rain predicted on Wednesday so I think it is safe to assume the track will be somewhere in the Heavy range.
There looks to be a decent amount of speed in the race with GeeGees Golden Girl, Ollie's Gold, Mr Moneypenny and Oerter all capable of leading. I'd expect Ollie's Gold to be the one to press on from barrier 5, leaving GeeGees GoldenGirl with the run of the race from barrier 4.
Let's take a brief look at each runner.
UP CUPS: Has won his last three races including the Group 3 Hobart Cup. Has to lump top weight here as a result and barrier 15 means he will get a long way back. Did beat GeeGees Golden Girl with 59kgs two starts back. Heavy form not convincing.
GEEGEES GOLDENGIRL: Narrowly defeated by Up Cups at her last two starts. Gets in better at the weights compared to last start, and her heavy form is good. Gets the run of the race from barrier 4 and looks hard to beat.
GEEGEES LA QUITA: Been beaten a combined 26 lengths at her last three starts. Not going well enough.
GLADSTONE: Good run last start and looks ready to peak here stepping up to 2400m. Untested on heavy ground but has 4 placings from 6 starts on Soft. Should run well.
OLLIE'S GOLD: Should lead from barrier 5. Good run last start after working to get to the lead. Has never placed over 2400m which is the concern. Not for me.
PLAYER ONE: Comes up with barrier 1 which could be a disadvantage given he gets a long way back. Ran on well in the Hobart Cup last start, though he's never placed over 2400m. Only placed twice from 8 starts at Launceston. Place chance more than a winning chance.
SCHOCKEMOHLE: Last two runs have been pretty good in Melbourne. Steps up to 2400m for the first time but should get a decent run from barrier 2. Has 4 placings from 8 runs on Heavy, looks a good value chance.
SMOKE 'N' WHISKY: Been running very consistently lately and got a deserved win last start. Only run over 2400m was two starts back which was a forgive run. Good run from barrier 7 expected, hasn't performed on Heavy tracks but has 4 wins on Soft so looks an each way chance.
AGGREGATOR: Big run in Melbourne last start over 2400m. Mick Kent wouldn't send it over here just to make up the numbers but has a real lack of form on wet tracks which is the big concern.
MISTER MONEYPENNY: Finished last and second last at his past two starts. Not going well enough.
OERTER: Interesting to see if they choose to press forward from the wide barrier. He's been going well lately and he's won 2 races and placed a further two times from 8 starts on Soft so he might like the wet ground. Needs luck but can run a place.
HUGO: Racing in good form and loves this track with 8 placings from 11 starts. Has placed 6 times from 9 starts on Soft ground but untested on Heavy. Good run from barrier 3. Place chance.
ARIANNE: Another Melbourne horse coming over and has been racing consistently in harder races in Melbourne. Will go back from barrier 12 and be charging home. Should appreciate the rain so she's a good each way chance.
SETTLER'S STONE: Running better than his form suggests but he'll get a long way back and not expecting him to turn the tables on Up Cups and GeeGees GoldenGirl.
Summary
Going for a bit of value here with one of the Melbourne horses SCHOCKEMOHLE. He's been racing well in Melbourne and I think the step up to 2400m should suit him. He's shown ability on wet ground before and from barrier 2 he should get a nice run. Think the $10 on offer is decent value.
GEEGEES GOLDENGIRL has been racing superbly and will get the run of the race from barrier 4. She's got good wet form and will have absolutely no excuses. PLAYER ONE could get a long way back from barrier 1 and find trouble but he's been building up to a race like this and should't mind the wet ground, while UP CUPS has been impressive in winning his past three starts and could very well beat them all again but will have to prove himself in the wet.
ARIANNE, SMOKE 'N' WHISKY and AGGREGATOR are others to include in an open race.
1st SCHOCKEMOHLE
2nd GEEGEES GOLDENGIRL
3rd PLAYER ONE
4th UP CUPS
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
