After going 4/6 correct AFL betting picks for a solid profit in Round 19, it's time to find more winners during the home stretch of the footy season! Plenty of interesting games this weekend, so make sure to read on for my 2016 AFL Round 20 betting tips.
AFL Round 20 Betting Tips
Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies (Friday, August 5 at 7:50pm AEST)
It's 12th vs 13th on Friday night at the MCG, but at the moment it feels more like a battle between a finals contender and a wooden spooner as the Pies are coming off a strong victory against the Eagles and the Tigers have been humiliated two weeks in a row. It would simply be horrible to be a Richmond supporter at the moment and I don't think it will get any better in Round 20.
On current form you couldn't possibly think the Tigers can win this one. They have put up a combined 67 points over the last two weeks and during that time conceded a combined 225 points. The Tigers are capable of better football than this, but they don't have much to play for at the moment. The heat from the media has been at an all-season high at the moment, so it will be interesting to see if they crumble in the face of the scrutiny or if they show a bit of pride. Clearly the bookies think they aren't a total lost cause, setting the line at a very fishy -12.5. I'm trying to find reasons as to why the line is so small and I all keep coming up with is reasons to back Collingwood. The Tigers are currently ranked 15th for scoring this season and 17th for inside 50s. They are also the worst tackling side in the comp. No doubt they need to respond to the criticism they are receiving and the big stage on a Friday night might polarise them, but can't look past the Magpies. It feels like a fishy bet and like one of those games that could be a tight Friday night clash, but sometimes you just can't ignore form.
Tip: Collingwood at the line (-12.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, August 6 at 1:45pm AEST)
Sydney and Port Adelaide come into their game on Saturday afternoon on the back of handy victories on the road last week. Fortunately for the Swans this one is at the SCG which will prove to be a huge advantage - not only because the Power have travelled two weeks in a row, but also because Sydney have won 10 of the last 13 at this ground.
The last time these two teams met was at the SCG last season and the Swans got up by 10 points. Josh Kennedy was best on in that game and that could be the case again if he's ridiculous form last week is anything to go by - he had 45 touches, kicked 3 goals and had 11 centre clearances. The line is set pretty high for this game, but I think it will be a competitive contest as two of the best tackling sides in the comp go head-to-head. Before last week the Swans hadn't been putting up big scores this season and I can't see the floodgates opening up here. They do have the best defence in the competition which will be helpful to stop the likes of Chad Wingard weaving his magic. The Swans should get the win, but taking them in a relatively close game.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, August 6 at 2:10pm AEST)
The Hawks haven't looked unstoppable this season, but they keep getting the victories and are currently on top of the ladder and looking like making it a 10th win in a row when they play Melbourne on Saturday.
There is no doubt the Demons have improved immensely compared to last season. They are competitive in almost every game and I think they can once again be competitive in Round 20 against the Hawks. I don't think they have what it takes to win, but I don't think the 34.5 point line is representative of their chances. These two teams met in Round 11 of this season and the Hawks won by 20 points. I can see this game being a similar a margin. The Demons haven't lost a game by more than 40 points since Round 13 and that was on the road at the SCG. If Max Gawn and the Demon midfield can win the contest in the middle of the ground than this won't be a cake-walk for the Hawks. They should maintain their winning streak, but thinking it will be be a relatively tight margin.
Tip: Hawks by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants (Saturday, August 6 at 4:35pm AEST)
It's hard to fathom that Gold Coast's first season was in 2011, which was a full year before the Giants began in 2012. No doubt the AFL thought the Suns would be ahead of the Giants in development in 2016 - or at the very least at the same stage. That's absolutely not the case heading into this clash on Saturday afternoon as the Giants are genuine premiership contenders in 2nd place on the ladder, while the Suns struggle in 14th.
If this game ends up coming down to a midfield battle, the Giants will smash the Suns. Guys like Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward, Tom Scully, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio are absolutely elite. With Garry Ablett, Jaegar O'Meara, Aaron Hall, David Swallow and Dion Prestia all on the sidelines, the Suns don't have even one player of the calibre of the Giants I just mentioned. The Suns saving grace is their forwad line led by Tom Lynch who Jonathan Brown said in the media this week is the best player in the comp - yep, even better than Danger he reckons. I'm not sure about that, but there is no doubt he will have to play a huge game to be a chance against the Giants. Because this game is at Metricon I do think the 40-point line is a little reactive to GWS's dismantling of Richmond last week. I'm leaning towards the Suns being able to cover that line and maybe find some value in the Giants under 39.5 at $2.50. However, going to take a safe line on this one and sit out the betting.
Tip: No Bet.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, August 6 at 7:25pm AEST)
The biggest game of Round 20 is no doubt when the Bulldogs and Kangaroos take to Etihad Stadium on Saturday night. Both teams need all the wins they can get, lest they finish 8th and have to take on the team in 5th during the finals which will be one of the tough Sydney, Geelong, GWS or Adelaide.
While North Melbourne have had their own injury woes in 2016, they pale in comparison to the Bulldogs who in the last two weeks added Jack Redpath, Jackson Macrae, Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis to their already long injury list. There are 10+ players from their best 22 out and four of those are arguably in their best 5 or so players. Luckily Matthew Boyd, Matthew Suckling and Dale Morris look likely to return this week after short stints on the sidelines. It's well documented that the Dogs were 'brave' in defeat against the Cats at Simonds Stadium last week and they will need a similar effort here. It's a little surprising that the Roos are only slight favourites considering the Dogs' injury list, but in saying that I do think the Dogs can be competitive. The Roos stood up for their game against the Saints, but prior to that have really struggled. Their midfield is still the biggest worry and with Jarrad Waite on the sidelines, things don't look so rosy down at Arden Street. Covering for Liberatore, Macrae and Wallis will be tough, but luckily a huge portion of the Bulldogs list spend time in the midfield and Luke Dahlhaus will be better for having returned last week. I'm not overly confident, but at these odds, I don't mind the look of the Bulldogs to win a close game.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.75 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Take Note: If Morris, Boyd and Suckling do not return in Round 20, I will reconsider my bet and depending on which of these / how many of these three are not named, either make this a 'no bet' game or switch to the Roos.
Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday, August 6 at 7:10pm AEST)
The Crows managed a massive 82-point victory against Essendon last week and this Round 20 game against the Lions at Adelaide Oval looks like another chance to boost their percentage.
When Adelaide are at their best they look like the most dangerous team in the comp and Brisbane won't be looking forward to this one. Fortunately for Lions' fans, big Sam Jacobs is on the sidelines, which should help their chances around the stoppages... But only slightly. The Crows outmatch the Lions on every part of the ground and will be happy to have Tex Walker back in the side this week as he kicked 7 goals the last time these two sides met. The last three games the Lions have played at Adelaide Oval resulted in losses of 113, 87 and 77 points. The bookies think that will be the case once again this week with the line set as high as 78 points. While the Crows will have a convincing win, 'm not a massive fan of this huge line. What I don't hate the look of is the Ladbrokes 'Footy Freaks' special for Rory Sloane to have 31+ disposals and Adelaide to win. Sloane is having a massive year and has managed more than 31 disposals twice in the last four games. The Lions, meanwhile, have had at least one opposition midfielder have 31+ disposals in the last five straight games and at least two opposition midfielders in 3 of those games. Sloane is leading the total disposals at Adelaide and should no doubt get a lot of the ball against the Lions, especially if Adelaide win by 10+goals.
Tip: Sloane 31+ Disposals & Adelaide to win - $2.25 'Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints (Sunday, August 7 at 1:10pm AEST)
Another game that should be quite competitive in Round 20 is when the Blues take on St Kilda at the MCG on Sunday. Although, you wouldn't think that would be the case considering Carlton have lost seven games in a row.
The Blues have played three quality top eight sides in the last three weeks with losses by 19 points to the Hawks, 6 points to the Swans and 7 points to the Eagles. They played really solid, defensive football and conceded no more than 82 points in any of those three games. That sort of effort will allow the Blues to go close to defeating the Saints this week. Ultimately, however, you have to favour the Saints who's only real slip-up in recent weeks was in their loss to the Roos last week. There are whispers that Marc Murphy could return this week, which will be very important against a midfield that includes the beastly Jack Steven. This is one of those games where I’m happy to take either side in a close game.
Tip: Either Team by Under 24.5 Points - $1.80 at Sportsbet (1 units)
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday, August 7 at 3:20pm AEST)
The only game more skewed in one side's favour than the Crows v Lions is when the Cats take on the Cats this Sunday afternoon.
This is another one that is all about percentage on the ladder. The Cats are currently only in the top four by 0.1 percent. They need top keep the Bombers to a low score this week and win by as big a margin as possible. The bookies have the line set at around 70 points which looks just about right. The Bombers were smashed by 82 points last week and you would think they will struggle to keep this one within ten goals. What I am concerned about is Geelong's ability to put a big enough score on the board to comfortable cover the line. They don't have as a powerful a forward line as the Crows and will need guys like Patrick Dangerfield to contribute on the scoreboard. Like many Essendon game this season, i'm more comfortable sitting this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles (Sunday, August 7 at 2:40pm AWST)
Round 20's 'western derby' probably doesn't have as much interest surrounding it as usual, but it might be the only game remaining for Docker fans to get excited for.
Interestingly both Aaron Sandilands and Nic Nat return this week which will certainly excite the local fans. The Dockers will be desperate for Sandy to improve their form as they come into this on the back of a massive 90-point loss to the Swans last week. The Eagles, meanwhile, have been severely lacking the presence of a player like Nic Nat and will need him to start making an influence if they are going to be any threat in September. The problem with the Dockers really does come to down to injuries. Even with Sandi back they are still short on quality midfielders and have always struggled up forward. West Coast have to use this game a spring-board for the rest of the season and should be looking to make a statement. They should be able to get an easy win here, but never confident with a blowout in a 'derby' game. Small play on West Coast to cover the line.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-27.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
