After 23 rounds and three exciting weeks of finals, we have reached the 2016 AFL Grand Final. Will the Swans win their third premiership in 11 years? Or will the Western Bulldogs break a 62-year drought and win their first Grand Final since 1954?
The AFL Grand Final certainly isn't the easiest game of the year to bet on, but fortunately my AFL tips have been quite successful during the finals series as I have gone +10.77 units over the last three weeks. Hopefully I can finish the season on a high note and pick another winner with my 2016 AFL Grand Final Preview and Betting Tips.
Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday, October 1st at 2:30pm
The Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs have had completely different journeys to make it into the 2016 AFL Grand Final.
After finishing the season on top of the ladder, the Swans faltered in the first week of the finals when they were destroyed by the Giants. They responded strongly, however, coming out and getting the job done against the Crows before decimating the Cats at the MCG. It takes a champion team to keep their heads up after a loss like the Swans had against the Giants. It seems like the Swans are back to being the team we know - a tough, slick, well organised unit.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, were written off in Week 1 of the finals, but ultimately defeated the Eagles in Perth, the Hawks at the MCG and then got a famous victory against the Giants at Spotless Stadium. That's just about the toughest run into a Grand Final in history. Now the question is whether the Bulldogs embrace all that accumulated confidence or if they peaked a week too early.
The Swans have far more experience on the big stage and while the football world seems to be desperately in the Bulldog corner, they are a proud club who will not be going down without a fight. There is no doubt this is going to be a very exciting affair.
In terms of injuries, both teams are hoping to get a couple of once doubtful key players into the side. The Swans are sweating on Jarrad McVeigh, Alir Alir and Callum Mills being ready for the big dance, while the Dogs seem hopeful on big Jordan Roughead getting on the pitch after his eye injury early in the GWS game. It's a positive sign that the Bulldogs got the win without Roughead on the field for the majority of that game, but he is key in their ruck stocks and in their defensive setup. The Swans trio of players, meanwhile, have all been key to their defence as well, while they would hate to be lacking McVeigh's immense premiership experience.
The last time the two sides met was in Round 15 with the Dogs winning in an absolute thriller when Jason Johannisen kicked a running goal with a few seconds to go, stealing a 4-point victory. That game was at the SCG, which is a huge positive for the Dogs. The Swans are no slouches at the MCG - proving that against the Cats last week - but the Bulldogs have also been dangerous on the sacred ground this year, winning all three of their games including the semi-final victory against the Hawks.
On current form, you have to say the Bulldogs are a real chance to break their premiership drought and sneak a tight victory. Unfortunately, the Grand Final is a different beast and sometimes form plays less of a role than expected. And regardless, the Swans are also in pretty good form.
The most positive signs the Bulldogs take into this week, however, is the fact they were able to keep Jeremey Cameron goal-less and to just five disposals. Patton and Lobb did bob up and kick seven goals between them because of that, but if they can keep Lance Franklin quiet in a similar manner to their job on Cameron, they are a huge chance. Sydney don't have the depth in their forward line like the Giants do - especially with Kurt Tippet in poor form. We saw what the Giants were able to do to the Swans a fortnight ago and as I have said in the past, the Bulldogs play a similar style to the Giants. I don't think the Dogs will decimate the Swans like the Giants did, but at the current price, I think the Dogs look like the play here. Will be taking them under 39.5 as my official Grand Final tip, while also utilising some of the head-to-head promos around.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $3.00 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Outside of the actual game it is always fun to have Norm Smith Medal and 1st Goal Scorer bets on the Grand Final - especially when there are some promos around to take advantage of.
For the Norm Smith, my official pick will be for Liam Picken as he has been one of the in-form players of the finals series and can make a noticeable impact on a game's result. Picken polled Coaches Association votes in Week 1 and 2 of the finals and seems value at $23-1 to take out the medal on Saturday.
Tip: Liam Picken to win the Norm Smith Medal - $23 at CrownBet
I will alsobe taking Josh P Kennedy as I think he is a great shot to get the most touches and could easily take the medal if the Swans win the game.
Tip: Josh P Kennedy to win Norm Smith ($9)
For the 1st Goal Scorer market, I will be taking Tory Dickson. He has kicked 7 goals across the three finals games, including at least one in each game.
Tip: Tory Dickson to kick 1st Goal ($9)
