After 23 rounds of footy, the 2016 AFL season has reached the finals series! It all kicks off this Thursday night with the second elimination final before Friday and Saturday showcase the qualifying finals and the first elimination. Four massive games and four chances to find some value as I offer my 2016 AFL Finals Week 1 betting tips.
AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs (Thursday, September 8 at 6:10pm AWST)
For the last several weeks it was looking very likely the Western Bulldogs would end up playing their elimination final in Melbourne. Then West Coast came in and secured a home final by winning their last four including games against top prospects GWS, Hawthorn and Adelaide. The Eagles are peaking at exactly the right time and no doubt the Dogs would not be overly optimistic about their chances in Perth this Thursday.
The last time these two teams met was in Round 11 of this season with the Dogs winning by eight points. That game was at Etihad where the Dogs have a great record against the Eagles. It's a completely different story in Perth, however, with the Eagles winning the last four by margins of 77, 65, 70 and 123 points. The Bulldogs have been a better side this season than the last few, but this stat would certainly worry them. Josh J Kennedy has kicked bags of 7 goals twice and 10 goals once in three of those games at Domain and the Bulldogs will have to stop him if they are any chance of progressing in the 2016 AFL Finals.
Despite the Eagles being without Nic Nat, it's the Bulldogs who have the injury woes that will have the biggest effect this week. Easton Wood is the key here. He is the backbone of the Dogs defence and without him, Kennedy and the like will find it too easy to score. It sounds likely he will be on the field, which is a huge positive for the Dogs. Almost as important will be the inclusion of elite midfielders Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae who have both apparently trained well this week. Jake Stringer should also return to the side after a message sending stint in the VFL.
I think the Eagles win this game, but when the Bulldogs are at their best they can defeat any team. They showed that when they got the win against Sydney at the SCG earlier in the season. While I think this will likely be too tough for them to win, the 27-point line peaks my interest. If there was no pre-finals bye, I would say this could be a much larger margin, but the freshen up would have done a world of good for the young Dogs. They matched up very well against the Eagles back in Round 11 and I think they can be competitive in the elimination final - as long as they have some of the key inclusions needed, especially the naming of Easton Wood. The Dogs defensive efforts stack up with the best teams this season, having lost only one game by more than 25 points. We know how pressure intensive and defensive finals can be, so that's why I'm leaning towards the Dogs at the line.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (+27.5) - $2 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Take Note: If Easton Wood is not named, the line bet may need to be reconsidered. He is integral to the Bulldogs' defensive efforts against West Coast's potent forward line. Also watch for inclusions of Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae.
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks (Friday, September 9 at 7:50pm AEST)
There is no bigger game in the first week of the 2016 AFL Finals than this clash between the Cats and Hawks on Friday night at the MCG. It's one of the great modern rivalries that is about to have another chapter written.
While the losing team will get a second chance, history tells us that it is tough to lose the first week of the finals and then go on to win the Grand Final - although the Hawks managed exactly that last year. Regardless, there is no doubt this will be an extremely hard-fought contest. I do, however, think Australian sports betting sites have this one right with the Cats being slight favourites. The Hawks have been extremely vulnerable at times this season and with the loss of big men Ceglar and McEvoy, are looking even more vulnerable - while Ceglar is out for the entire finals series, it's looking like McEvoy will be back which is a positive.
When these two teams met in Round 1, the Cats won by 30 points and Patrick Dangerfield had 43 disposals. While I don't think we should put too much emphasis on a first round clash, I do think the Cats match-up very well against the slow-moving Hawks. If the likes of Dangerfield and Joel Selwood can get a hold of the Hawks in the middle, they should win this game. The likely inclusion of Scott Selwood will also help as he will sit on Sam Mitchell and thwart his influence.
Geelong have won 13 of the last 19 games against the Hawks since the 2008 Grand Final and I think will make it a 14th this Friday night. There is a lot of talk about the Hawks just having that winning x-factor where they 'get the job done' - showcased in their last-minute win against the Pies in Round 23. If the Hawks do get the job done in the first week of the finals, then I would struggle to underestimate them again this year. But ultimately I just can't see them being able to defeat the Cats this week. One thing I am fairly certain of and that's that the margin won't be a blowout. Expecting a close game.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants (Saturday, September 10 at 3:20pm AEST)
The AFL would be licking their lips at the prospect of a Sydney derby in Week 1 of the 2016 AFL Finals. I think a lot of fans are also keen to see if the young Giants can take their game to the next level and match it with elite outfits like the Swans.
The Swans are 15-point favourites for this one and I think that's actually a bit rich. If the game was at the SCG I would expect the Swans to be around that mark, but with this one being played out at ANZ, the Swans don't have a true home ground advantage. The last time the two teams met the Giants won by 42 points at Spotless Stadium, while back in Round 3 the Swans got the victory by 25 points at the SCG.
I just think the Giants match-up well against the Swans and they showed that back in Round 12. The Swans didn't have their full squad, but the usual suspects in Josh P Kennedy and Dan Hannebery played good footy and the Swans still really struggled. The Giants kept Luke Parker very quiet and that really hurt the Swans ability to impact the scoreboard. Lance Franklin played okay in that game, but will need to play more like he did in Round 23 if the Swans are to make this game a sure thing.
I do think the Swans win this game, but like the Cats vs Hawks clash, I think it will be extremely competitive. There has been a lot of chatter about the Giants lacking finals experience, but captain Callan Ward and Ryan Griffen played in multiple preliminary finals at the Bulldogs, Shane Mumford was a premiership Swan, Steve Johnson a premiership Cat and Heath Shaw a premiership Magpie. They have plenty of experience to be a real threat this finals series. This is no pushover and the Swans will have to be firing on all cylinders to secure a break and a preliminary final spot. Looking forward to this.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne (Saturday, September 10 at 7:10pm ACST)
The most one-sided game during Week 1 of the 2016 AFL Finals is certainly when the out-of-form North Melbourne head to Adelaide Oval to take on the Crows. Adelaide are more than five goal favourites and deserve to be.
The Crows defeated the Roos by 33 points at Adelaide Oval back in Round 14 and it seems bookmakers think that's how this game will play out. I think it comes down to scoring ability and that's where the Crows excel. They have put up huge scores in 2016, managing more than 100 more total points across the season than their nearest competitor. They allowed more points than most of the top eight, but were still better defensively than the Roos who just looked horrible for much of the second half of the season.
The Crows are simply superior to the Roos in almost every key stat area and while they struggled at home against the Eagles in Round 23, they were without key players Rory Sloane and Broadie Smith - both whom will return for this week's final. With this game at Adelaide Oval, I think the Crows win easily. The North Melbourne backline will have a very tough job, while the slow North midfield will really suffer against Sloane and co. All this is not to mention North struggling in their forward line and I don't think Jarrad Waite returning underdone will help too much in that department. Historically, not many finals are lost by huge margins, but I think the Roos are cooked and club officials admitted it when they didn't re-sign their veterans and pretty much spoke about a full rebuild. That wasn't the best way to go into this finals series and I can't see them getting the job done. I hope they are competitive for the sake of club champions Brent Harvey and Drew Petrie, but I lean towards a small play on the Crows covering the line.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-31.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
