Our resident horse racing expert, and Perth local, Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips from Ascot in Perth.
Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and we suggest you punt at one of bookmakers we consider the best Australian sports betting sites.
Fantastic field assembled for the final Group 1 of the WA Racing calendar. Two weeks ago the track really favoured the on paced runners with the rail at the 3m position for the first time this season, but it goes back to the 6m position which has tended to race very evenly. That means the backmarkers in the race should have a better chance of making ground than those on Railway Stakes day.
As for the surface, there is a Thunderstorm expected in Perth on Saturday, with up to 10mm of rain expected to fall. That could see us racing on a soft track by the time we get to the Kingston Town Classic.
The complexion of this race is very interesting with Perfect Reflection coming up favourite with just 50kg on her back as a 3YO filly. The last female to win this race came all the way back in 1999, and while 3YO's actually have a reasonable record in the race in recent times (3 winners in the past 8 years), no 3YO filly has won the race in over 30 years (possibly more, my history cuts off at 1983).
Of the last 9 editions, 8 winners have started at $5.50 or less, with Playing God in 2011 the outlier when winning at $21. Every winner since 1994 has had its last start at Ascot, so the visitors Magic Artist and Extra Zero will be the odd ones out. And since 2002, every winner has come at the top or the bottom of the weights, with the winning weights all being 52kg, 58kg, 58.5kg or 59kg.
Let's go through the runners:
EXTRA ZERO: Comes over from Melbourne for David Hayes and Tom Dabernig after finishing midfield in the Mackinnon. He's very hard to catch but his best form would see him probably win this. The possibility of a wet track is really disadvantageous for him and he will have to come from a long way back with barrier 15.
BLACK HEART BART: Bart comes up a pretty good price here at $9. He drew wide and shouldered top weight in the Railway last start and still finished off well to run 4th on a leader biased track. I think he will get 1800m, especially with a much better draw in gate 3 here. Of course has to carry weight again but gets all the favours. Only query is if the rain comes given he's only ever run on Good tracks. Rates highly though.
TOWER OF LONHRO: Thought he was a good roughie last start in the Railway when he was 3rd up, which is when he always peaks, but he didn't finish off and finished well back in the field. Up 6kg under WFA conditions so we can put a line through him.
MAGIC ARTIST: The horse I keep coming back to. His form leading into this is clearly the best in the race. Should have won the Mackinnon first up when he was terribly unlucky, and then ran very well to finish 4th in the Emirates over the unsuitable 1600m trip. Draws barrier 1 so can position where he wants and Damien Oliver takes the ride. The 59kg isn't much of a concern given he carried that in the Mackinnon, and horses carrying this weight have a good record in the race. The only concern with him is the rain but he ran well on 'soft' tracks in Melbourne so it depends how wet it gets. Rates a huge chance.
BASS STRAIT: Didn't run on in the Railway and goes up 6kg in the weights under WFA conditions. Not for me.
WOODSVILLE: 1 placing from 7 runs 2nd up, 1 placing from 15 runs at the track and the 1800m is too short for him. Pass.
HAZZABEEL: Looks the likely leader in the race. Sat outside of Good Project in the Railway and steadily weakened to finish 5th. From barrier 5 he should find the lead a bit easier but he's another that takes a hike in the weights. Not good enough here.
DARK MUSKET: Hasn't been good enough in BM72+ races let alone WFA Group 1 races.
BALMONT GIRL: Ran a really good race to finish 3rd in the Railway. Got all the favours from barrier 2 and she will get that same run again from the same barrier here. Rises 4kg in the weights and has the 'mares curse' to shake, but she gets a great run and expect her to go well again.
REAL LOVE: Blistering win first up in the Asian Beau over 1400m and ran well again in the Railway last start to finish midfield. Up 3kg in weight here but draws to get a fantastic run from barrier 7. She finished alongside Delicacy in the Railway but her stablemate came from further back. She should run well, especially with her good barrier.
DELICACY: Loved her effort in the Railway despite the very negative ride from the wide barrier (not blaming Pike). She was only let go in the final 300m and attacked the line really well. Up 2.5kg in weight and draws horribly once again so she will go back and try to run them all down. 1800m might just be too short once again.
NEVERLAND: Having a throw at the stumps here after three consecutive wins this preparation. Massive step up to Group 1 WFA here and does draw a touch sticky. Gets Douglas Whyte on board which is a huge plus but looks a bit outclassed nonetheless.
MAN BOOKER: Good win in the Group 2 WA Guineas last start but was perhaps a bit lucky given the way the track was playing on the day. Still, it was a good win and he drops right down in the weights to 52kg here, so he might run a cheeky race up on the speed with no weight.
LONDON LINE: Loomed as the winner in the WA Guineas when coming from off the pace. Looked to peak on his run slightly but he does get the blinkers on for the first time here. No weight on his back and drawn well, he could run a good race. Query over 1800m though.
BLACKWOOD: Ran a great race in the Guineas when coming from last after drawing wide. The pattern of the day really favoured the front runners so to get as close as she did was a good effort. Carries 50kg here but the trainer expressed his concern at running in the race and that's not very inspiring. Drawn horribly again as well.
PERFECT REFLECTION: Favourite for the race. She's 4/4 so far and her last win was extremely impressive given she'd missed a run leading into it. William Pike chooses to get down to 50kg to ride her and jumps off Delicacy so that's a pretty big hint at her chances. However, no female has won this race since '99, no 3YO filly has won in over 30 years, she steps up to 1800m for the first time, this is still her first preparation, she's draw wide and she takes on a high class field! She also steps up to take on the older horses and the boys for the first time in a WFA Group 1 at only her 5th career start. She will have to be a star to win this and I am happy to take her on.
Looking back at the history of the race and the past winners, I can't possibly be backing PERFECT REFLECTION here. While 3YO's have a decent record, females don't, and especially the 3YO fillies. She takes on the older horses and the boys for the first time and it is stil only her 5th career start in her first preparation. Steps up to 1800m for the first time and takes on a class field. Likely she will be wide throughout, I think the $4 is hard to take. Happy to possibly have a saver bet on her but nothing more.
I think if the track stays at a Soft 5 or better then MAGIC ARTIST rates as a huge chance. Historically the last 21 winners have all started at Ascot at their last start, but he might buck the trend. His two runs in high class Melbourne Group 1s have been outstanding, he draws the inside barrier and Damien Oliver rides.
BLACK HEART BART also rates highly and at a decent price too. Drew wide in the Railway and came from well back to finish 4th. Carries the weight again but draws very well so should get all the favours. Query on a wet track but expect him to go well again.
DELICACY can't be ruled out after a good run in the Railway from a long way back. From the wide alley she will again go back and have it all to do but she's an outstanding mare and with a track that gives backmarkers a bit more of a chance she might just win. Likewise, REAL LOVE gets a gun run from barrier 7 here and should be able to position a bit closer in the run. Expect her to go well.
MAN BOOKER could run well with no weight on his back, while BALMONT GIRL can back up her 3rd placing in the Railway despite the rise in weight. EXTRA ZERO is the blowout.
1st MAGIC ARTIST
2nd BLACK HEART BART
4th BALMONT GIRL
R1 - Arcadia Dream
R2 - Let It Slip
R3 - Liberty Rise E/W
R4 - Hobart Jones
R5 - Young Lionel / Who's To Blame (if it rains)
R6 - Ideal Image
R7 - Silverstream
R8 - Magic Artist
R9 - Express Dancer (if it gets a run) / Baraki Beats E/W & Heavy Set E/W (if Express Dancer doesn't get a run)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
We're not far away from another big weekend of racing and there's plenty of meetings to get involved in this Thursday! Our team is in terrific form so check out Luke Krahe's best bets at Seymour, Pakenham and Beaudesert here! read more
There’s another fantastic seven-game slate in the NBA this Thursday, the 14th of November. We have a full preview and betting tips for some of the key games of the day! read more
The 2019-20 NBL season continues this weekend with Round 7. Action begins on Friday night, which will be the first of six games taking place this weekend. Check out all our best bets for the round here! read more
CS:GO takes centre stage in the esports world again this week as the 2019 DreamHack Atlanta kicks off on Thursday. We have a full preview and betting tips for the $100,000 tournament here read more
In the third instalment of our Betfair instructional series, we take a look at understanding staking plans and how they can be used to stay in control of your bank roll read more
In our next strategy guide for the Betfair platform, we take a look at understanding how the Betfair markets work and what different types of backs and lays you can place with Betfair! read more
Unlike your ‘normal’ betting agency where it’s you versus the Bookmaker, Betfair is a peer-to-peer wagering platform. Betfair allow you to both ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets, which gives you complete control and a totally unique betting experience. View how full guide to backing and laying here read more
There are approximately 90 Group 1 level harness races in Australia and New Zealand each year; we've highlighted some of most high profile races on the annual racing calendar here. read more
The Melbourne Cup has transformed from the race that stops the nation into the race that stops the world in recent years, and Palmerbet are giving punters more bang for their buck with boosted odds on all Melbourne Cup runners this Monday! read more
The Melbourne Cup is known as the race that stops a nation, but is quickly becoming the race that stops the world! There's 42 horses left in contention for the 2019 Melbourne Cup, which will be held on the first Tuesday in November. Check out the latest betting odds for the race here! read more
Get fantastic odds of $4.50 for Te Akau Shark to finish in the top five in Saturday's Cox Plate thanks to Palmerbet. read more
The lottery is one of the more fun ways to gamble, and who hasn't dreamt of one day striking it mega-rich by landing a jackpot! What are the odds of winning the lottery, and is there anything you can do to improve your odds? We take a look at the luck involved with playing the lottery! read more