Just four rounds remaining for the 2015 AFL season as we continue to look for value with our AFL betting tips. Lots of interesting games this week, so be sure to read on for our AFL Round 20 betting tips.
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Sydney Swans Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Friday, August 14 at 7:50pm AEST)
The Swans fell out of the top four after their disappointing loss to the Cats last week. They need to bounce back this week and it looks like they might have to win every game for the rest of the season to lock up a spot in that top section of the ladder. Fortunately for the Swans, I think they have the Magpies outclassed, especially at the SCG.
Collingwood actually haven’t played at this ground for 15 years, which makes it kind of hard to judge the influence this to have. By default I think we certainly have to give the edge to Sydney in this department.
One of the big talking points coming into this game will certainly be that the Swans will be without Buddy Franklin once again, while the Pies have names Travis Cloke. Will this be enough for the Pies to win? I don’t think so. The Magpies have just shown no reasons to get behind them lately and really weren’t that great in their win over Carlton last week. I don’t think the Swans will blow it away, but with a spot in the top four on the line and a home game, they should get the job done. Will be getting on the Swans under 39.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Adelaide Crows (Saturday, August 15 at 1:45pm AEST)
The last game of the season couldn’t come quick enough for the Bombers. Unfortunately they have four games remaining and I can’t really see them winning any of them – certainly not this Saturday’s game against the Crows.
The Crows are coming off a big win against the Tigers and will now rate themselves every chance to make the top eight. Because of that, they won’t come into this game lightly. I would be worried if I was a Bombers supporter. The Crows played on a Friday night last week at home, so they will be fairly fresh for this one. The Crows are ranked second for marks inside 50, while the Bombers have scored under 70 points in four of the last five games. Despite the line being quite high, I think the Crows can cover against the Bombers and I might even nibble at the over 40.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-26.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
North Melbourne Vs. St Kilda (Saturday, August 15 at 2:10pm AEST)
North Melbourne have strung together a solid couple of months of football after underperforming for much of the year. They are sixth on the ladder at the moment, but will need to win every game they can to lock up a finals appearance. Lucky for them they play St Kilda in Hobart this weekend.
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of North Melbourne the last few weeks has been their scoring prowess – putting 127, 118 and 110 on the board. They really have been gelling lately and the Saints are going to find this one tough. If this game was at Etihad, however, I would be saying the almost six goal line is huge value for the Saints. I still think they can cover this line, but personally will be staying away from this game down in Tassie.
Tip: No Bet
Port Adelaide VS. GWS Giants (Saturday, August 15 at 4:05pm ACST)
The Giants head to Adelaide to take on the Power on Sunday afternoon and will be desperate to win to keep their finals hopes alive. I actually find it somewhat surprising that the Power are such heavy favourites. It’s obviously because the game is at Adelaide and Scully, Coniglio and Treloar are out, but I still think the Giants are better then 4-5 goal underdogs here.
With the solid season the Giants have had, you just have to back them to really be fighting to win this game. They know Port Adelaide were woeful against the Dogs last round and will have found plenty of holes in their game throughout the week. The kids who come in and replace Scully, Coniglio and Treloar should also be keen to show their chops and make a case to fit in the team in coming weeks and next season. With no finals on the line will the Power really have the hunger to stand up and win this game? Maybe in front of the home crowd, but I still like the Giants at the line.
Tip: Giants at the line (+25.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
Geelong Cats Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, August 15 at 7:20pm AEST)
It’s not often the Hawks go into a game against the Cats only paying $1.24. These two rivals have played some of the most memorable games of the last decade and usually they are close to an even match up. The times have changed, however, and the Hawks deserve to be favourites.
These two teams met in Round 1 of this season with the Hawks winning by 62 points. I don’t think they will win by that much this year. The Cats have played some good football of late and are certainly a finals chance. They will be desperate for this one to try and stay in the eight. I do lean towards the Cats to cover the line, but ultimately think this game is best left alone.
Tip: No Bet
Brisbane Lions Vs. Carlton Blues (Saturday, August 15 at 7:20pm AEST)
It’s a battle for the wooden spoon! Going to try and look at this one without thinking about whether or not it’s in the best interest of teams to tank and get that number one draft pick. So in saying that, we really like the look of Brisbane to beat Carlton at the Gabba on Saturday night.
The Lions have been backed into $1.68 at some books and I actually rate them at around $1.60 in this spot. The Lions were solid in their loss against the Suns last week and will appreciate having two weeks in Queensland. The Blues, meanwhile, were actually okay against the Pies last week, but that was a game at the MCG and they always seem to stand up against their rivals. I simply think the Lions have a much better list. Rockliff and Hanley are starting to build some momentum and those two players have more talent than anyone at Carlton. Stefan Martin has been in good form and will be more influential than Kreuzer. Happy to get on the Lions.
Tip: Lions Hd-Hd - $1.78 at Sportsbet
Richmond Tigers Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Sunday, August 16 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Tigers continue to be that strange team that wins when you don’t expect and loses when you expect them to win. We thought they would get the victory last week, but they ended up losing to the Crows. Once again we expect them to win, but this time we can’t see any other outcome.
Compared to the rest of their season, the Suns have had a solid few weeks, drawing with the Eagles a fortnight ago and getting a rare win against the Lions last week. I don’t think they will continue that form into this game. The big factor here is the MCG. The Tigers love this ground, while the Suns barely play here. The Suns do have a good record against the Tigers, but only in Queensland. The Tigers get Deledio back, Cotchin is playing his 150th game and they have something to prove. The Suns will be (somewhat) competitive, but the Tigers should win.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at CrownBet
Western Bulldogs Vs. Melbourne Demons (Sunday, August 16 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Bulldogs have been the talk of the town of late. No one had them finishing in the top eight preseason and here they are in the top four. It’s going to be tough to keep that spot and it all starts by not losing games like this weekend’s against Melbourne.
The fact this game is at Etihad is a big plus for the Bulldogs. They simply love this ground, while the Demons have amazingly not won at Etihad for 21 straight games.
The Demons have actually played better football lately, but with this game at Etihad and with the Dogs firing on all cylinders, you can’t see them winning this game. The Bulldogs get Bob Murphy back and I expect them to win this game by 4-5 goals. That means the line is just about right. So you can either get on the Bulldogs under 39.5 or sit this game out. Personally I will be sitting it out.
Tip: No Bet
Fremantle Dockers Vs. West Coast Eagles (Sunday, August 16 at 2:40pm AWST)
There aren’t many bigger matches than this one – a derby in the West between the two top teams on the ladder. There isn’t much hype around the Dockers and maybe a big stage like this is what they need to turn the football world into believers.
The ins for the Dockers is what makes them look the good here as Fyfe, Johnson and Pearce all come in. Amazingly, the Dockers didn’t really struggle without those guys, which is saying something. The Eagles meanwhile, lose Selwood, McGovern and LeCras.
These derbys have actually become quite predictable over the years – the Dockers win by 6 goals or less. We think that streak will continue and will be getting on the Dockers in a tight one.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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