2014 Manikato Stakes
When: Friday night, 9:45pm
Where: Moonee Valley Race 7
The Manikato Stakes is a weight-for-age race over 1,200 metres with a cracking line up this year full of Australia’s best sprinters, and some of the best sprinters in the world!
Last year it was Buffering ($6.50 at Ladbrokes) who broke through for his maiden Group 1 victory in this race, and now with four G1’s to his name, he’s back to do it again. There’s a lot to like about Buffering’s chances in this race. Last start in the Moir, Buffering held on from a Lankan Rupee and a fast-finishing Rebel Dane, but you would think Buffering’s race fitness would be improved even further second-up for this race. They couldn’t get past him last start, what will be different this time around?
Lankan Rupee ($4 at BetEasy) clearly has a preference for a longer straight, with a couple of upset losses as a short-priced favourite at the Valley during a disappointing season so far. However his form isn’t actually that bad, as both losses were extremely tight. The question will be if Lankan Rupee allows Buffering to dictate up front. In the Moir, Lankan Rupee shot out of the gates and got a length clear, before easing back and conceding the lead to Buffering without a fight. I can’t see that mistake happening again.
The other big contender, and favourite, for the race is Terravista ($3.80 at Palmerbet). Some are claiming he is the best sprinter in the world right now. That may be true, but he’s never raced outside of Sydney and has never run the Melbourne way. The form from the G2 The Shorts also hasn’t proven too strong, so this is a huge step up in class against some of the best sprinters going around. Terravista might win, but there are too many factors against him to justify such a short price.
For a bit more value, Rebel Dane ($10 at Ladbrokes) looked impressive in the Moir but can’t give up such a huge start to Buffering. Will likely sit further forward to be within striking distance, so certainly not without a chance. Famous Shamus ($26 at Luxbet) has also had a very solid preparation, and at good odds, might be one to include in exotics.
Verdict: Buffering has an ideal gate in barrier 4 to shoot forward, take the lead and do his thing. The intrigue of the race will be the tactics of Lankan Rupee. He can’t let Buffering dictate but from barrier 9 it might be hard to do too much. Lankan Rupee might prefer a sit, but if he gets caught wide, will be forced forwards. Buffering will get the rails run and I can't see Lankan Rupee or Terravista winding up enough in the small straight to pass him.
1st Buffering ($6.50 at Ladbrokes)
2nd Lankan Rupee ($4 at BetEasy)
3rd Terravista ($3.80 at Palmerbet)
Buffering will always give you a bold showing, and happy to take the each-way odds. Hard to see him missing a place.
