Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, September 2nd.
The first metro meeting of the Spring in Sydney comes from Warwick Farm today, with seven races on the card. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.
Tim Geers has assessed every race and offered his tips and best bets below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 2nd
Best Bet: Race 7 – (4) Twice As Special
Best Value: Race 5 – (7) All Tiara
Tipping against the early favourite here, which is (9) Miravalle. I was with her on debut when she drifted in the market and ran accordingly, finishing second last on the heavy track here at Warwick Farm. She was sent straight for a spell and resumes today with two trials under her belt. I thought those trials were fair without being fantastic. She resumes with blinkers on for the first time today and she also races on a good track, which could bring about sharp improvement, but she’s short enough at the price. (7) Covent Garden is another horse that disappointed on debut, also finishing second last on a heavy track at Canterbury. She was also sent for a spell after that and resumes with just one trial, which was fairly good. She wasn’t put under much pressure but found the line under her own steam. She finds a very winnable race first up today and I’m with her on top. (3) Yangtze Rapids is the Waller/JMac horse and looks ready to go after two trials.
Tricky little race. (3) Joviality was blessed with the track pattern favouring her last start but she was dominant and she was rewarded for two good runs without any luck leading into that. She draws well again today and I think she’s got more to come so I’m going to stick with her rather than jump off after she won. (4) Kaakit Akit was nominated for a stronger race a week or two ago but they choose to come here instead. She resumes today with two trials under the belt and Nash Rawiller on. She’ll find the lead and be hard to run down. (1) Sixgun was an impressive winner on debut before resuming in much stronger class than this against the likes of Anders, who has since won dominantly again. That’s the best formline for the race so back in grade today, it would be no surprise to see him win.
(7) Damaged gets another chance with me today. I was keen on him first up but he was completely unsuited the way the track played and I also think Boss made the wrong decision to come off heels and wide in the straight. It was a day you had to be glued to the fence on speed and coming wide in the straight was the wrong place to be. (6) Mr Mosaic won his first two starts at Kembla before failing here at Warwick Farm last time we saw him. He’s been dominant in two trials leading into his first up run, posting 8L and 3.8L margins. He is obviously hard to beat but looks short enough. (3) Junglized has finished in the money in five of his six starts when first up, so include him, while (4) Aeecee Vinco is undefeated first up.
This is a no bet race if I’ve ever seen one. (1) Home Ground brings the best form but he’s forced to carry 5kg more than any other horse in the race over the 2400m, so that certainly looks a leveller, and with a 3kg apprentice with very little city experience, I can’t be taking $2.50. (3) Red Hot Chillypins ran last in the same race as Home Ground last start, but she was only beaten 2.5L. She was 1.9L behind Home Ground and gets a 6kg weight swing today so on her home deck, she could be hard to beat. Firm ground a big query with her though as she’s yet to win from five starts on good tracks. If betting, I’ll have something very small on two at better odds. (5) Wild Sheila comes off a win at Newcastle last start. It was just her second career win from 17 starts but she at least comes into this having won on a good track over this distance. Kerrin McEvoy is on board and staying riders don’t get much better than him, even though he’s been a bit out of form in recent months. $6.00 could be worth a spec. (4) Aperol Sprint is from the Matthew Smith stable who is based here at Warwick Farm. She’s been battling around the country tracks and she’s another that is a query on the firm tracks as she’s never placed on one from four starts, but she’s placed in her last five runs and should be around the mark in a weak race.
I’m going to follow two horses out of the same Newcastle race, in (5) Gemmahra and (7) All Tiara. Gemmahra was first up there and was very well-backed, justifying the support to lead all the way and win by 1.3L. She’s had six starts on good ground for three wins and two 2nds, so the firm track will suit her here and she looks ready for midweek metro grade. All Tiara was 1.5L behind her back in 3rd. She comes here third up from a spell, which is about when she peaks. All three career wins have come over the mile and all three have been on good ground as well, so I think she represents the value at $31. (3) Miyake might be the best horse in the race but might also need the run. (6) Emmanuela was good first up but might be better suited back to the provincials, while (9) Silent Agenda has placed in her past six starts and returns to her home track, but she finds it hard to win.
(6) Nerone resumes today with two trials under the belt and draws well in barrier 1 with Jason Collett aboard. We might get a better price come jump time with a couple of other more fancied horses in the race. Godolphin have a good record at Warwick Farm, with a treble here last time we raced. With even luck, he should be in the finish. (3) Bartley didn’t get a lot of luck first up but gets a big jockey change today with JMac replacing Tim Clark. This is a drop in class so despite the wide draw, he’s probably the one they have to beat. (9) Return With Honour drifted very late in betting in Brisbane upon his resumption and the market told the story as he was never a factor. Nash Rawiller is booked today so expect them to be much more aggressive out of the gates. He should find the front and that will see him improve.
(4) Twice As Special ran down Torun first up at Randwick, which I think is a very good form line for this as I have a decent opinion of Torun. That was on a bog track so it’s hard to know how that will translate to a good track today but I don’t think there’s a whole lot to this race. She has won on good ground before and she won her only previous start at this track and distance, so she appears very hard to beat again. (3) Karaja may improve sharply back onto a good track third up, while (2) Phemonoe should also go much better with Nash Rawiller taking over from Louise Day.
(4) Twice As Special
$4.20
