Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, October 7th.
Eight races at Warwick Farm on Wednesday for midweek metropolitan racing in Sydney, as we build up towards another blockbuster week of Group 1 racing. Joshua Reed has cast his eyes over every race at Warwick Farm and provided his tips and best bets below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 7th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (7) Petronius
Best Value: Race 6 - (5) Money Magic
This is a narrow maiden in my opinion, and I love the quick backup of (6) Pretty Good. I thought she went well at Kensington last Wednesday despite having to go back from the poor draw and riding for luck. She won’t have to worry about the luck here and should box seat in second or third behind the leader (5) Only Mine, and if she can keep tabs on her, I think she has that final dash to be able to break her maiden status. Her main rival is (2) Hot Spring Gold who is also on the quick backup and will give himself a chance if he is closer in the run. Although it is a small field, the closer the better, especially on the bend.
I am not overly keen on this race with a lot of mixed form and a fair few haven’t been exposed to this distance, so I have stuck with (5) Wristband who although has only won 1 race in his career, has been very consistent over 2400m in similar grade. The distance is no worry as he has shown this preparation in Melbourne so far, but last preparation in Sydney around this grade would be good enough to win this. He will carry no weight and providing he gets a kind run throughout, he should be too good but it does look a race that I would be playing carefully.
This is a pretty hot race and I thought I would stick with (5) Deniki after her first-up win at this track and distance. She has drawn well to hold the rail and potentially the lead depending on what (3) Malkovich does from his tricky draw and of course (9) Zorocat who will show speed from barrier 2. That looks the bulk of the speed with talented runners (1) Pyrmont, (2) Tilia Rose, (6) Rocketing By and (7) Ballistic Lover will be right there to capitalize if the leaders destroy each other’s chances. I don’t think that will be the case as (5) Deniki showed the tenacity when headed last start to keep fighting and looks to do the least amount of work from the ideal draw.
This looks a race of three with (2) Villami, (3) California Zimbol and (4) Pandemic who all met first-up last preparation in the Fireball where (2) Villami got the better of the other two, beating them by 4.1L and 5.6L respectively, which is why I think she can do it again. Just like last preparation, she comes back into the races on the back of one trial which was impressive and will be enough for her to start this preparation off with a bang. She is drawn wide and will stroll forward and although she has never raced over 1000m, her first-up form is good and the step back in grade might be what she needs to get the confidence. (3) California Zimbol and (4) Pandemic will be right there is there is any issues.
I think (8) Night Witches is the one I want to be with here though I think she has found her price for this contest. She was amazing last start at Warwick Farm when she dropped back from the awkward barrier and flew home in 33.84 for the last 600m to finish third behind Joviality and Invinciano. The form has stood up nicely with Joviality running okay in the Flight Stakes, Invinciano just won two on the trot on Monday and Alison Of Tuffy winning also. She is drawn much better to sit closer in the run and with a good steer from Tommy Berry, she is going to be hard to beat in the concluding stages.
Very tricky race here and your getting $5 the field, so I have decided to go a touch wider with (5) Money Magic who is returning for the first time since June where she was only fair in the Roses up in Brisbane. Before she went up there, she almost took out a BM74 Saturday race at Randwick, going down 0.8L over 1800m to Lando Bay. She is 2/2 first-up and her record on good tracks is good. The draw is awkward though with Josh Parr aboard, I think he will go forward and try and slot in a touch better than midfield. If he can navigate a good ride, it is a brilliant each-way bet. (6) Rathvilly Miss who is on the quick backup is worth having a small play also and perfect for your quaddie leg.
This looks the logical bet but has come up short, so I will be playing closer to race time on (7) Petronius. He finished 0.7L in fourth last start in Saturday grade behind Academy, Icebath and Criaderas which is ideal form for this race. Sticking to the 1400m third-up is ideal and McEvoy taking the ride will enhance his chances. From the nice draw, expect him to head forward and probably sit behind (3) Navy Cross who is resuming and (10) Budderoo Knight before peeling off them in the straight.
This impeccably bred mare who has trialled up well is over the odds in my opinion and I am willing to have a spec on (11) Saas Fee. Let us go back to her last preparation, which was her first long preparation, she broke her maiden status and on her third start she ran third in the Group 3 Belle of the Turf at Gosford behind Tinkermosa and Statuesquely. She then failed in a Group 1 and in my opinion didn’t like the soft ground before going for a spell. Her stats first-up are good and she should be hitting the line nicely over the 1200m. It is another wide open race with (10) Let It Pour, (6) Garrison, (9) Juan Diva and (3) Intrepidacious all likely chances also, hence why our play will be each-way.
