The final grand slam of the year is here. The US Open will take place over the next fortnight, and Ace is here with his thoughts on all of the outright markets. Check them out below!
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Men's US Open Preview, Predictions & Tips
Men's US Open Quarter 1 Preview
You could almost sum up this section with two words: Jannik Sinner. The Italian has had over a week to get over his illness that caused him to retire in the Cincinnati final, so he should be raring to go in New York. The other top seed in this section is Jack Draper, who we haven’t seen since Wimbledon, which I wouldn’t say is ideal preparation for a player who has had his fair share of physical struggles over the course of his career to date. The question for Draper is can his body hold up across the course of a fortnight on the hardcourt? That is the big question. I am happy to sit this quarter out. Sinner is under $1.30 here, and I have question marks over Draper who is clear second in the market, and Alexander Bublik has never set the world on fire in New York previously and is the third favourite. I was keen on Flavio Cobolli’s price pre-tournament however I don’t like his draw. A player who could push some of the top names over best of 5 sets is Tommy Paul, and he is the only one over $20 that I think can push the likes of Sinner and Draper were he to meet them.
Men's US Open Quarter 2 Preview
Although Alex De Minaur is probably outmatched when we get to the very pointy end of grand slams, this is a very interesting little pocket of the draw. He was the beneficiary of sneaking in to the 8th seed, and looking through this section I do think there is a touch of value in him to win the quarter. De Minaur is still a tough out for anyone over the best of 5 set format, and to beat him you need to be a player close to your best given his ability to cover the court. The seed closest to him in the market is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire more recently. The biggest potential challenge for De Minaur prior to a quarter final is Karen Khachanov, who looked great at times in the North American hardcourt swing (final of ATP Toronto 1000), then last time out retired due to injury, so there are some question marks. At the top of the quarter is Alexander Zverev, who has definitely looked a little stronger more recently, however I think I’d rather get involved in individual Zverev matches than back him to win 5 or 7 matches.
Men's US Open Quarter 3 Preview
The curious case of Novak Djokovic. He has shown glimpses at times in the last year or so, but he hasn’t commanded tournament wins like we have come to expect. Is he still a name that we can talk about in the grand slam outright markets? This is a tough portion of the draw, with the likes of Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, France Tiafoe and Jakub Mensik. I’d also argue there are a couple of other names who can genuinely threaten with their best level, including a trio of Americans in Brandon Nakashima, Seb Korda and Alex Michelsen. However, when you look at the way this section is made up, with Djokovic, Tiafoe and Rune all in the top portion of the draw and Fritz in the bottom portion, I am comfortable taking Taylor to win the quarter.
Men's US Open Quarter 4 Preview
It is hard to look at the make-up of this quarter and not hope that in about 9 days time that we will be thinking about a quarter final between Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton. I mean, I am thinking about it and a main draw match just hasn’t been played yet. Alcaraz has arguably the harder draw out of the two, but he also has the higher ceiling with his game. I won’t be taking the $1.50 for Alcaraz to make the semis, however I don’t think I have a strong lean to be opposing him heavily either here.
Men's US Open Outright Betting Tips
0.25 units Tommy Paul Quarter 1 Winner ($21 Ladbrokes)
0.5 units Alex De Minaur Quarter 2 Winner ($5.50 Bet365)
0.5 units Taylor Fritz Quarter 3 Winner ($4.33 Ladbrokes)
0.25 units Alexander Zverev/Alex De Minaur to meet in ¼ Final ($6 Bet365)
Women's US Open Preview, Predictions & Tips
Women's US Open Quarter 1 Preview
Sometimes I can sit down and write up these draw previews, and see a player like Aryna Sabalenka, and wonder how much time and energy I should expend trying to unpack the quarter. That just shows the dominance that she has, particularly in quarter betting. My first instinct was certainly that here when I saw she drew a quarter with Jasmine Paolini, a player who is at the mercy of Sabalenka given the power disparity. Nevertheless, there are a couple of players in this section of the draw that I do find to be quite interesting. In fact, there are a handful. The first name that stands out is Elena Rybakina, who is fresh off a win over Sabalenka on her way to a Cincinnati semi-final. Rybakina has a tricky path from early in week 1, with the talented Tereza Valentova a potential second round opponent, Emma Raducanu or Veronika Kudermetova in Round 3, and then potentially Paolini in round 4.
The volatility in this section does lead me to try and find a name in the draw here that has a decent early couple of rounds and could show a decent level to make a push, and the only name at longer odds here is Elise Mertens. Her overall form is pretty solid, and she has looked competitive at times against some of the top names, so she is well worth considering north of $20 in the market. You could also attempt a moneyline rollover, as she is likely to start an underdog against Tauson, and would be a large underdog in Round 4 vs Sabalenka.
Women's US Open Quarter 2 Preview
This looks to be an interesting pocket of the draw, and there is one player that has caught my eye above all others. I am happy to side with the favourite for the quarter in Mirra Andreeva. My knock on her has been her level dropping off at times in some of the smaller tournaments, particularly when things don’t go her way in 10-15 minute patches. She has a tricky first round against Alycia Parks, however her level on hardcourt should hold her in good stead against the majority of this section. On form, it is hard to get too excited over the likes of Jessica Pegula, Belinda Bencic, and Emma Navarro, and it would be a massive step up for Victoria Mboko to back up her Montreal heroics with a very deep run here.
Women's US Open Quarter 3 Preview
Madison Keys and Coco Gauff are the bookends of this section, which perhaps doesn’t have the same depth as the first two quarters. I must say, it is a little difficult to get a firm read on where Gauff is relative to the rest of the market, as yes, she is struggling severely with her second serve, however she is still being largely competitive against a lot of solid players. I think she has enough on this group (notably Osaka, Keys, Muchova, Noskova, Kostyuk), however it will only be a small selection at the $3.50 for Gauff to win the quarter here I think.
Women's US Open Quarter 4 Preview
It has been a fantastic second half to the season for Iga Swiatek, which isn’t something we have been able to say about Iga for the majority of her career. She looks to be incredibly tough to beat again here as well, with the 2nd seed’s toughest potential opposition the 4th round against either Diana Shnaider or Ekaterina Alexandrova. Given the odds on offer, I think this section is a pass for me at the moment. I am a big fan of Shnaider’s ceiling, but I need to see how she looks in round 1 first given she will be on a quick back-up from the Monterrey final. In the top half of this quarter, I think Amanda Anisimova and Elina Svitolina cancel each other out at their current prices and there isn’t a lot of value in my opinion. I will watch round 1, and then I might jump in.
Women's US Open Outright Betting Tips
0.25 units Elise Mertens Quarter 1 Winner ($23 Ladbrokes)
1 unit Mirra Andreeva Quarter 2 Winner ($4 at Ladbrokes)
0.75 units Coco Gauff Quarter 3 Winner ($3.50 at Ladbrokes)
