UFC Freedom 250 takes centre stage on Monday (AEST) and the whole world will be watching the premier mixed martial arts organisation's event on the White House lawn. In a card not to be missed, Justin Gaethje will try to dethrone Illia Topuria in the main event. In the co-main, Alex Pereira will make his Heavyweight debut against Ciryl Gane for the interim title. American fan favourites Sean O’Malley, Michael Chandler and Bo Nickal will all compete in this one-of-a-kind event.
UFC Freedom 250 Preview & Betting Tips
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Ilia Topuria comes into this fight as arguably the most feared man in the UFC. After knocking out Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway at Featherweight, he went up to Lightweight and did the same to Charles Oliveira to become a double champ. The Georgian-Spanish fighter has a background in grappling yet has raw power in his hands. That makes him a difficult challenge as he has not only shown his incredible striking but back in 2022 put on a grappling masterclass against wrestler Bryce Mitchell which made the American almost quit the sport.
Now he faces Justin Gaethje, known for his willingness to trade in the middle and put on entertaining fights. At 37 and after taking countless damage throughout his career this is a brutal task for the American. He has tried and failed on multiple attempts to claim the UFC Lightweight title, and without a doubt, this is his final chance. Despite also having a wrestling background, his jiu-jitsu is near non-existent. At any point this fight hits the mat, Topuria could do whatever he wants to Gaethje. Both Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov submitted him in mere moments when they got a hold of him and while Topuria isn’t quite that level of grappling, he isn’t far off it.
Gaethje’s path to win is to land something hard on Topuria and make sure to capitalise if he gets him rocked. Otherwise, this is going to be an ugly beatdown and not the end to the card that Donald Trump would want to see, as it will be a one-sided demolition job.
Topuria to win by KO/submission
$1.35 (4 Units)
Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira moves up to Heavyweight for the first time to face perennial contender Ciryl Gane. Pereira has quickly become the biggest star of the UFC on the back of dethroning Israel Adesanya and then steamrolling the Light Heavyweight division. His opponent, Gane, has only two losses in his UFC career, one to Jon Jones and the other to Francis Ngannou.
Most recently, he fought Tom Aspinall and got the best of the opening exchanges before an eye poke saw the fight waved off as a no contest. While he waits for another shot at Aspinall - who continues to struggle with the eye injury sustained in that fight - he faces Pereira.
Gane’s fighting style uses pinpoint striking and movement to create angles to land big shots. Pereira, on the other hand, uses leg kicks and his hands and reads the reactions his opponent gives him. From there, he stalks his prey like a lion waiting for an overreaction so he can land something devastating.
While Pereira’s power is sure to still translate at Heavyweight, his struggle will be getting in a kickboxing battle against a notable kickboxer. Gane has only ever struggled with those who offer a grappling threat. He even turned Ngannou into a wrestler.
If the Brazilian is to win, I believe it will be on the back of making huge strides in the grappling department, thanks to the mentorship of Glover Teixeira. If they go strike-for-strike, I would back Gane to come out on top.
In saying that though, I fear this fight could be a bit of a slow one. Both men will respect the striking and power of the other, and this looks set to be a real battle of tactics. Therefore, I see it going into the championship rounds at the very least, and I am happy to play the over here.
Over 2.5 rounds
$1.60 (4 Units)
Main card multi
To get some better odds, we will combine Sean O’Malley and Bo Nickal into a multi. O’Malley gets a perfect opponent to showcase his flashy striking in Aiemann Zahabi. Zahabi has good jiu jitsu but not the wrestling to match, and packs very little punch in his striking. Zahabi is being fed to O’Malley here for a highlight KO, given Americans may struggle to get wins on UFC Freedom. Expect him to do just that.
While Bo Nickal is the other who has received somewhat of a manicured opponent. Kyle Daukaus is a bit of an all-rounder who does everything well but not great. He is 2-0 since returning to the UFC and gets a match-up that is a nightmare. Daukaus has solid grappling when he is the one initiating, but his takedown defence is far from solid. Expect Nickal to grab his back and ride him until he locks in a choke, likely in the opening minutes.
Sean O’Malley + Bo Nickal
$1.56 (4 Units)
