This weekend the UFC heads back to the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada where Jamahal Hill faces Thiago Santos in the main event. In the co-main a war between Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal is sure to ensue and Augusto Sakai and Sergei Spivac throw down in a battle of two of the larger Heavyweights. We take a look at my three best bets on this weekend’s UFC card below.
UFC Fight Night Betting Tips
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
This fight is between two fighters on opposite trajectories and one I assume the UFC made to showcase Jamahal Hill rather than see a resurgence of Thiago Santos. Santos has won just one of his last five, while Jamahal Hill has lost just one of his six UFC bouts.
While Santos is still dangerous it looks as if his age and cumulative damage has caught up to him, with his explosiveness and athleticism he carried up to the Jon Jones title fight seemingly gone. Hill on the other hand only faltered once, going to ground and being dominated quickly by slick submission artist Paul Craig. Outside of that, he’s destroyed Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute and Ovince Saint Preux. I think the no brainer pick is he dominates Santos on route to a statement win.
Jamahal Hill to Win
$1.40 (3 Units)
Augusto Sakai vs. Sergei Spivac
I believe the oddsmakers have got it wrong here. This is the type of fight that perfectly suits Augusto Sakai. He is a solid striker who is equal parts big and tough. His last three losses are against seasoned kickboxes and when he has fought wrestlers with lesser striking, he has come out on top.
Spivac is still developing and while his striking has improved, he is much more comfortable in grappling exchanges. I expect Sakai to control the centre of the Octagon and absolutely punish Spivac from range, likely securing a stoppage win, but we will back him at the money line as there is great value in that alone and it covers us if Spivac is stupidly durable.
Augusto Sakai to Win
$3 (3 Units)
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Stephanie Egger
I had hoped Mayra Bueno Silva would have gone on to be a good prospect after she booked her ticket to the UFC with a Contender Series ninja choke in just over a minute. Silva is just so frustrating to watch, she so often out strikes her opponents on the feet and then lies on her back after giving up a takedown chasing submissions.
Stephanie Egger comes into this fight full of confidence on a two-fight finishing streak where she has utilised her judo background well. I just believe her style plays into Silva’s close quarters bullying style. Back Silva to get the win as a small underdog.
Mayra Bueno Silva to Win
$2.20 (2 Units)