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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez Betting Tips

October 7th 2021, 11:48pm, By: Ben Talintyre

UFC Fight Night Betting Tips

The UFC Women’s Flyweight’s most decorated jiu jitsu artist takes on one of the most feared strikers in this weekend's UFC Fight Night main event. It's Mackenzie Dern against Marina Rodriguez in what should be a cracking match up. In the co-main Randy Brown and Jared Gordon face off and young rising star Mariya Agapova looks to bounce back from her shock defeat last time out when she meets fellow 24-year-old Sabina Mazo. We take a look at the UFC Fight Night card and there is plenty of value to be had. Check out our UFC betting tips below!

UFC Fight Night Betting Tips

Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez

Quite frankly I believe this fight will be decided one way or another by midway through round 2. As a lover of all things jiu jitsu, I have followed Dern’s career before her MMA escapade. Dern is on a four-fight win streak, with three of those four wins coming by first round submission. 

Her opponent, Marina Rodriguez, is looking increasingly impressive over the past year, winning her last two fights over Michelle Waterson and more recently, a complete domination over hot prospect Amanda Ribas. While I can definitely see improvements in Dern’s striking, she is still well of that of Rodriguez.

Simply put, if Dern gets this to the mat in the first or second round she should win. Otherwise, she is going to be walking into strikes and will eventually be put away. Therefore, I am going to recommend two bets on this fight to cover both outcomes I see occurring. The first bet will be Rodriguez to win by knockout. Rodriguez has a takedown defense of just over 60% and can keep up a wicked pace. If she stuffs Dern early, she can tee off on her Brazilian counterpart as she wears and put her away. The second play is a saver on Dern by round 1 submission. She has won 3 of her last 4 that way and her grappling credentials are as good as it gets. If it gets to the mat early and Dern has a couple of minutes to work, I expect her to catch an arm and put Rodriguez away. 

ALSO: Dern by Rd 1 Submission ($6.00 at Sportsbet)

Marina Rodriguez by KO/TKO

$4.00

Charlie Ontiveros vs Steve Garcia

This is a pure striking fight and I absolutely love what the UFC matchmakers have put together here. It is as simple as, let’s put two massive Lightweights in a small Octagon cage with limited grappling skills and watch fireworks. 

Ontiveros will look like the bigger man but he has serious durability issues that make this a horror match up. I truly see Ontiveros charging at Garcia before trying to land a one-shot knockout. However, I envisage that plan backfires as I see a round 1 knockout for Steve Garcia here as I just see him folding Ontiveros inside the opening minutes, in a display to likely earn himself a post-fight bonus. 

Steve Garcia to win in Round 1

$2.50

Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa

When I first caught a glimpse of Alexandr Romanov, I thought this is a man that will run through the Heavyweight division. He is a massive man, who is almighty strong and has wrestling and submission skills. He is a perfect 14-0 with 13 stoppage wins, 9 by the way of submission. His opponent Jared Vanderaa is a mediocre Heavyweight. He will however, have the advantage on the feet as he does have somewhat underrated kickboxing and cardio. 

Unfortunately for Vanderaa, his takedown defense is not up to standard and Romanov should take him down and suffocate him before long, literally. I do see top control ground and pound as the likely route to victory for Romanov but I would prefer the safer route of him getting a round 1 finish as his submission skills are as much of a present threat. 

Alexandr Romanov to win in Round 1

$2.00

Ben is an avid sports reader, writer and viewer who immerses himself in the sporting world at any chance. He religiously follows world football (soccer) (up the mighty Reds (YNWA)), MMA and NRL, and tries to keep up to date on all sporting codes.

Ben is a western Sydney reporter for The Daily Telegraph and NewsLocal and has previously worked at Sky News and Fox Sports News. As a punter and sports betting analyst, Ben always looks for value. Before any tip or bet, Ben draws up his own market based off of his own knowledge before comparing to the sports betting markets. His best advice he has for punters is that a winning bet isn’t always a good bet!

Ben is always up to talk sport with anyone and everyone, and provide any further insight and thoughts into any sporting match or fight. So feel free to hit him up on Twitter! Ben's opinions are always his own and to the MMA fighters who he says are not good enough in his previews, he does do jiu jitsu but conceded you absolutely would still destroy him in a fight!

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