The UFC Apex Center plays host to an absolute barnburner of a main event this weekend as Middleweight contenders Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori meet in the Octagon. In the co-main, Grant Dawson and Rick Glenn battle it out and Jessica-Rose Clark looks to add to her impressive last fight display with another win when she meets Panama’s Joselyn Edwards. We take a look at my best three bets on the card below.
UFC Fight Night Betting Tips
Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori
Paulo Costa returns to the Octagon for the first time since his first pro loss, a title fight demolition to Israel Adesanya. While Marvin Vettori also enters the Octagon on the back of his loss to the current champion.
Twelve of Costa’s thirteen wins have come by finish, eleven being knockouts and he has proved to be a formidable opponent to all but Adesanya. For a big man, Costa has impressive output and he can maintain it for multiple rounds. He averages over seven significant strikes a minute yet showed a clear defensive flaw against Adesanya, an uneducated rear hand. This means that he has not properly learnt and worked on using his rear hand to deflect and roll punches. If he has been able to fix that defensive deficiency, he will be able to walk any man down confident that he won’t be on the end of big counter shots. This issue was first seen against Yoel Romero but was perfectly exploited by Adesanya so I am hoping for his sake he has watched some tape and worked on it.
My big concern with his opponent Vettori is his failure to admit his flaws. Vettori is not a proven finisher either and if his wrestling doesn’t pay dividends he is there to be beaten as his last three fights have all gone the distance. I believe he will struggle to take down Costa as he will need to push him back to the fence behind his jab. The way to beat Costa is to counter his forward pressure and that just isn’t Vettori’s style.
Originally, I was going to stay away from this fight but the more I analyse it, the more I believe Costa has every chance of catching Vettori and stopping him. So therefore I am going to back Costa to stop the Italian Dream.
Paulo Costa by KO/TKO
$3.40
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyn Edwards
Honestly Jessica-Rose Clark’s last fight victory was sneaky impressive. She stopped Sarah Alpar dominantly in the third round and showed remarkable improvement from her previous fight. Her opponent Joselyn Edwards comes into this fight off a defeat to Karol Rosa.
I don’t think enough people paid attention to what Clark did in her last fight. In this matchup she should outstrike and out wrestle Edwards on route to a one-sided victory. Clark looked much stronger and faster in her last fight and if she continues on this trajectory she can compete with the top ranked Women’s Bantamweights. Snap up the close to even money odds while you can because the competition will only be getting better from here on out for the Aussie.
Daniel Lacerda vs Jeff Molina
Jeff Molina for mine could have a similar trajectory as current Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno. Molina’s Contender Series win over Jacob Silva showed that he can overcome adversity, take a shot and adapt on the go. He won his UFC debut in close fashion but once more showed his grit, determination and ability to adapt the game plan on the run. His opponent Daniel Lacerda is a Brazilian prospect who to be fair hasn’t faced anyone of note. There isn’t a lot of vision of Lacerda’s fights but unless he is a top UFC prospect I don’t see him beating Molina. Molina should be able to mix up the striking with his wrestling and push a pace that Lacerda simply won’t be able to handle. I am therefore having a confident bet on Molina to make it two on the bounce to start his UFC career.
