After a massive UFC pay-per-view card last weekend, the UFC returns to its Las Vegas home for this weekend’s Fight Night card headlined by former Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz and rising contender Aleksandar Rakic.
In the co-main Ryan Spann takes on Ion Cutelaba in a fight sure to provide fireworks and Katlyn Chookagian faces Amanda Ribas in a Flyweight bout with potential title implications. We take a look at my three best UFC bets on this weekend’s card below.
UFC Fight Night Betting Tips
Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic
These fight odds are truly ridiculous. Jan Blachowicz wilted in his title fight against Glover Teixeira but he clearly didn’t look himself and his fights before that he was all class so how he turns out as being the underdog against Aleksandar Rakic truly has me scratching my head.
If Blachowicz gets back to basics he simply wins. If he sets up his boxing, mixes in takedowns and just pressures Rakic he will dominate this fight. Rakic has looked impressive since joining the UFC but just three fights ago he lost to Volkan Oezdemir, someone who would be $4+ against Blachowicz. Rakic and Prochazka have both been the UFC Light Heavyweight hype trains the past two years and while I am totally on board Prochazka’s hype, Rakic is just a solid kickboxer who still has a way to go in my opinion.
I will be backing Blachowicz with confidence as long as it doesn’t look like he has lost all confidence after his last fight defeat, in the pre-fight presser and weigh ins.
Jan Blachowicz to win
$2.40
Ion Cutelaba vs Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann and Ion Cutelaba while being far from the best 205lbs in the UFC, they do have six octagon finishes between them and have also been finished on six occasions combined, too, making this an exciting clash.
Ryan Spann is a lanky but decent striker with a ridiculous 81.5” reach which he uses well to fight behind a jab. His opponent Ion Cutelaba is not quite as polished but is one of the wildest men in the UFC, charging forward and swinging as hard as he can. The problem for ‘The Hulk’ is he doesn’t have the greatest chin and gasses out within minutes.
This fight will go one of two ways, Cutelaba either gets him out of there in the first round or fails trying and gets completely broken down by Spann.
While there will be a shaky few minutes, I am backing Spann’s height and reach to keep him out of trouble and catch Cutelaba coming in. It is worth noting that he had Johnny Walker on the ropes before being knocked out and if he can show patience and pick his shots, the win is there for the taking. We are also getting nice odds for a Spann victory to make that shaky opening minutes worth it.
Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario
This fight was originally scheduled for a fortnight ago but after Carlos Candelario came down with an illness it was rescheduled for this weekend.
The fact is I don’t have an overly big opinion of Carlos Candelario but until losing a split decision in his Contender Series bout he was 8-0 as a pro and 4-0 as an amateur and has shown he is a well-rounded fighter.
He meets rising Japanese star Tatsuro Taira here and Taira has faced absolutely nobody of note and I mean nobody in his young career to date. Going through Taira’s tape I was very underwhelmed considering he is a massive favourite. Taira has a good rear naked choke but very underdeveloped wrestling so I question if he will be able to get this fight to the mat on his own terms and Candelario is a massive step up in competition for him.
I have this fight at close to coin flip odds and while I am not declaring Candelario a moral, I believe we are getting great odds to back him to cause the upset win. Back the American to stop the Japanese rising star in his tracks.
Carlos Candelario to win
$3.10
