The UFC comes to Brazil for Fight Night 164. The card is full of value and there is sure to be plenty of finishes, especially on the undercard. Fight Night 164 is headlined by light heavyweight contender, Jan Blachowicz against Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, who makes his light heavyweight debut as he looks to make one last run at the title.
Main Event
Jan Blachowicz vs. Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza
Souza comes up to Light Heavyweight for the first time as a real stalwart of the Middleweight division who has really only lost to the top fighters in that division. He is extremely dangerous but the jump from Middleweight to Light Heavyweight is no easy feat and against a monster in Jan Blachowicz, it is about as hard as it can get, even with it being in his native Brazil. While the crowd is a big plus for Souza, Blachowicz is incredibly durable, able to withstand whatever Jacare can throw at him and on top of that, has the cardio to make five rounds without much of a problem. While you cannot undervalue Jacare’s skill set and threat, especially on the ground, I just don’t see him being able to beat Blachowicz here.
Jan Blachowicz by KO or Points
$1.72
Undercard
This is a value packed undercard where I am enticed by almost all the fights but have settled on four that are worth a play at very enticing odds.
Sergio Moraes vs. James Krause
Sergio Moraes is a seriously top-level grappler and while he has been prone to forget his game plan, if he keeps his composure here, he can win and win quite comfortably. While Krause is on a five-fight win streak, this is a step up in competition and he isn’t a good-enough grappler to keep Moraes off him. Moraes keeps his head (hopefully), drags him to the ground and gets the tap.
Value: Moraes by Submission $5.50
Sergio Moraes to win
$2.70
Ricardo Ramos vs. Eduardo Garagorri
Both these fighters are finishers and this is likely to be one of the most condensed action-packed fights you will see. Ricardo Ramos has six first-round finishes in his 15-fight career while Garragorri is undefeated and has racked up nine first-round finishes himself. The main difference is Ramos’ ground game and wrestling. Garragori’s grappling is at best mediocre and Ramos ultimately gets this to the mat and gets the finish.
Ricardo Ramos by Submission
$5.00
Warlley Alves vs. Randy Brown
Again, I am predicting another submission here. Alves is very dangerous on the ground and has a nasty guillotine. I do think Alves can come unstuck with his cardio as it has hurt him before but at the $5 it presents great value. He gets this done with his customary guillotine before there is a chance for his cardio to fail him.
Warlley Alves by Submission
$5.00
Ariane Lipski vs. Veronica Macedo
I have been a little disappointed by Lipski since her Octagon debut going 0-2, as she really did look the goods before. Macedo is the weakest opponent she has faced since her UFC debut and Lipski is the far more accomplished striker. She shows us why she was hyped up and gets her first win inside the octagon as the underdog.
Ariane Lipski to win
$2.10
