UFC on EPSN 5 Preview & Betting Tips

The UFC on ESPN series continues this weekend with the 5th edition headlined by a big clash between Colby Covington and Robbie Lawler! We have a full preview and betting tips for some of the key fights on the card below! 

UFC on ESPN 5 Betting Tips

Robbie Lawler V Colby Covington

The evening’s main event, and a classic binary fight. Covington will likely be trying to simply overwhelm Lawler’s power and striking acumen with pure pace. Lawler’s gastank is fairly average, so this may just work. However, Lawler is the biggest hitter and the hardest puncher that Colby’s faced in his UFC run. Colby’s shown signs of being hurt by lesser strikers in the past, which makes this encounter more interesting.

The core dynamic here is whether Lawler can get the finish before gassing. I believe that Colby will present plentiful opportunities for Lawler to make that happen, and thus I recommend a play on Lawler to win @ 3.0

Darko Stosic V Kennedy Nzechkuwu

This fight is one between two Light Heavyweight Prospects who have recently had their trajectories halted by their first UFC Losses. They are both exceedingly raw talents, but it is my opinion that Stosic is largely the more skilled fighter despite his cardio & output issues. Kennedy, on the other hand, possesses the obvious gift of his incredible reach, but is raw outside of a minimalistic striking game.

As such, it is my belief that Stosic likely wins if he ever manages to get meaningful top time. Paul Craig, who is not a bastion of great gameplanning, was able to outgrapple Kennedy when give a single opportunity, and he lacks the clinch & athletic abilities of Stosic. On top of that, I believe that Stosic is the better-schooled, more experienced and more powerful striker. Most fighters have been able to finish Craig upon landing significant offense, whilst Kennedy was largely unable.

The main win conditions for Kennedy are either a low-percentage headkick KO, or winning a close decision from putting up more consistent volume than the laggardly Stosic. However, if Stosic fights to his potential and with some drive, he should be able to fairly easily take this bout.

Hannah Goldy V Miranda Granger

Another low level fight, but on this card I believe the greatest opportunities are manifest in the fights between raw combatants. Hannah Goldy is largely a kickboxer, but possesses solid takedown defense and fine defensive grappling instincts. Granger is largely a BJJ practitioner, but lacks elite status in that gamut. As such, Granger’s path to victory is limited to spontaneous submission in my opinion. With Goldy paying 1.62 presently, and Granger’s win condition being so limited, she feels like a worthy play even if I’d usually be hesitant to play a raw favorite.

Goldy’s also got the edge in strength of schedule despite a lack of frequency in her fighting schedule. Gillian Robertson, who is currently ranked at Women’s Flyweight, is the best scalp on the record of either woman. Robertson also presents a higher level version of Granger’s grappling opportunistic path to victory, which increases my confidence in Goldy’s ability to shut it down.