2026 is off to a hot start with back-to-back pay-per-view UFC cards to start the year. After a highly entertaining PPV last weekend, Alexander Volkanovski headlines the UFC 325 Sydney card, rematching Diego Lopes for the Featherweight title. While in the co-main, Dan Hooker takes on Benoit Saint-Denis in what promises to be a barnburner. Aussie fan favourites Tai Tuivasa and Junior Tafa also make the walk this weekend in a card full of hometown heroes.
Ben Talintyre brings us his UFC 325 best bets on the card below.
UFC 325 Predictions & Tips
Sunday, February 1st 2026, 1:00pm AEDT
Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
As always with rematches, the question is, what has changed since the first encounter? Heading into their first clash, there was a belief that Alexander Volkanovski was washed. He had been knocked out in back-to-back fights by Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev. However, he quickly silenced his critics with a vintage performance where he completely dismantled Diego Lopes, winning four of the five rounds. Since then, he has had nine months off and now meets the Brazilian again.
Lopes quickly bounced back from his title defeat by sleeping Jean Silva with a spinning backfist in the second round. While that was an impressive showing, I cannot understand why the market for the rematch has this so close. Volkanovski is the more polished striker, arguably has the better wrestling, has the better fight IQ and won relatively comfortably the first time they met. I was expecting the Aussie to be around $1.20, especially in front of his home fans, but he has gone up at around the $1.70 mark. I couldn’t have smashed that line faster when I saw it, and I recommend you do the same.
Alexander Volkanovski to win
$1.72 (5 units)
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Rafael Fiziev
Mauricio Ruffy and Rafael Fiziev have opened as a pick 'em fight, and much like with the Volkanovski fight, I am surprised. The pair are both strikers who are happy to throw down, although Ruffy has a clear power edge.
Fiziev has long been overhyped, and the gaps in his game have been exposed in recent years. Whereas Ruffy’s grappling Achilles heel is under little threat here, despite Fiziev leaning on his wrestling more in recent fights.
Coming in off a submission loss to Benoit Saint-Denis, Ruffy will be hungry to return to the win column, and I believe he will be a big problem for the Lightweight division in the years to come.
Mauricio Ruffy to win
$1.90 (3 units)
Aaron Tau vs. Namsrai Batbayar
Kiwi Aaron Tau will make his UFC debut this weekend against Namsrai Batbayar, and I am keen to side with the New Zealander. Tau fell short in his Dana White Contender Series opportunity in 2024, but reeled off three straight wins, including two on the Road to UFC series, to punch his ticket to the big time here. Tau has an in-your-face pressure style, exactly what will trouble Batbayar.
The Mongolian fighter also managed to win back-to-back Road to UFC fights to book his spot here, and he has been on an impressive run of late. Batbayar has not reached the six-minute mark in any of his five-straight wins.
However, he has previously shown he doesn’t have a great gas tank and is very hittable. That will be a real problem against the City Kickboxing product, which has never been stopped and is truly relentless. Back Tau with confidence.
Aaron Tau to win
$2.05 (3 units)
