The final UFC pay-per-view of the year is here, and it is sure to get the pulses racing, with the two longest-serving men's champions putting their belts on the line. In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili will attempt to defend his title for the fourth time in the calendar year against Petr Yan. While in the co-main event dominant flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja will try to defend his belt for a fifth time as he faces promising young challenger Joshua Van. We take a look at my best bets for the final pay-per-view card of 2025 below, with odds thanks to Neds!
UFC 323 Preview & Betting Tips
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Dvalishvili will take on Yan for a second time this weekend. It is more of a fact that, as champion, the Georgian machine has cleaned out the division t han the Russian being deserving of another crack. Granted, Yan has won three straight since losing to Dvalishvili and outside that defeat, his only other two defeats are to Dvalishvili’s teammate Aljamain Sterling – once by DQ and the other by split decision.
However, the first time the pair met, it was as decisive as it gets, a unanimous 50-45 sweep of the scorecards on the back of 11 takedowns. Since then, he has actually gotten better, while I don’t think Yan has.
Yes, Dvalishvili is a short-priced favourite, but I find it hard to see this going any other way than another title defence. The price isn’t juicy by any means, but it is as safe a bet as a title fight will ever be.
Merab Dvalishvili to win
$1.30 (5 Units)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
Alexandre Pantoja is realistically only a win against Joshua Van away from doing what Merab has, clearing the division. Van is the only current top 5 flyweight he has yet to beat and poses a unique stylistic match-up.
Van is a dangerous striker who lands more than eight significant strikes a minute, and Pantoja has always been incredibly hittable. The problem is that, in my opinion, he is levels below the Brazilian. What Pantoja does well on the feet is his relentless forward pressure. While Van carries serious power, Pantoja only needs to parry a couple of hooks to get a hold of his opponent and, from there, look to take his back and take him to the mat.
Van has never been really tested in the grappling department, and if I am to take a stab at it, I don’t see it going well for him. Therefore, I am backing Pantoja to get a win by submission and further push his claim as being the Flyweight GOAT.
Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission
$2.45 (3 Units)
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Cejudo vs. Talbott looks like a technical masterclass and is the fight I am most excited for as an MMA enthusiast. Cejudo is currently on a three-fight losing streak, while Talbott comes in winning four of his last five.
However, the market has overreacted to Cejudo’s skid. Talbott has the striking advantage, but Cejudo’s Octagon IQ is his greatest asset and the one that saw him previously clinch double champ status. If Talbott can keep his footwork flawless, he can take this by decision. But I believe Cejudo will be able to blitz in and make it a grind of a 15 minutes on the top prospect and take a huge win. At more than 3-1, it is a no-brainer for what really is a coin flip fight.
Henry Cejudo to win
$3.10 (3 Units)
