This Sunday will see Rogers Place in Alberta, Canada, play host to a cracking card for UFC 240. The lineup is highlighted by a much-awaited Featherweight clash between Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar in the Co-Main Event.
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However, due to Edgar notably losing a step it’s hard to see much of a path to victory, especially as it’d likely requiring outlasting the tireless Holloway down the stretch. Instead, I’d recommend a prop play. Overs will likely make sense in this bout, with both fighters being legendarily durable, and Edgar lacking the defensive lapses of Brian Ortega that allowed Holloway to pile ludicrous amounts of damage on the BJJ fighter.
Deiveson Figuerido is clearly a spectacular athlete, possibly the Flyweight division’s best, but his workrate issues have contributed to his status as a somewhat ‘finish or bust’ fighter. Alexandre Pantoja’s workrate, grappling wiles and striking should be enough to ensure that he is consistently picking up rounds along with taking advantage of Figuerido’s defensive lapses.
Alexandre Pantoja is true to the classic ‘Brazilian Jiu Jitsu + Muay Thai’ archetype that has been used to great effect in the UFC. I feel that he is a very similar fighter to Formiga who recently was able to shut Figuerido out with disciplined offense on the way to a 30-27 unanimous decision. He’s more than capable of tangling in the grappling with Figuerido, and should be safe on the feet.
As a result, I feel that Pantoja is clearly the value side at the current price of $2.00 for his win market. Figuerido will likely need a knockout to win this fight, and Pantoja is defensively sound enough to remain upright in the face of Figuerido’s bursts of high-powered offense. As a result, I’d recommend a play on Pantoja to win at $2.00.
In my opinion, Jotko is a top 10 Middleweight who’s been on the wrong side of a few spikes of variance in his last few fights. Barriault is fringe UFC-class, with a game that lacks strong points aside from some decent clinch striking. Although I’d usually be reluctant to play mild favorites in UFC, I’m happy to look at playing Jotko with his current price.
Jotko should have notable advantages in range striking, cardio, fight IQ, athleticism, grappling and more. Clinch striking is the only area I see Barriault really having a meaningful chance of success, though Jotko’s mental state has been a bit shaky in recent fights. Nonetheless, Barriault’s last bout was against Andrew Sanchez, a fighter with similar attributes to Jotko aside from being a lot shakier in cardio and durability. His loss in that bout makes it difficult to see him as lasting at the level of fringe-ranked Middleweights that the UFC has been matching him up against. The main difficulty here is trying to predict what Jotko will do, as Jotko is both willing and capable of grinding out wide decisions against fighters he should be able to finish easily.
As a result, I’d recommend sticking to Jotko to win at $1.62 instead of trying to get fancy with his prop plays. Jotko submission may be value if it’s at least $6.00 at release, but it’s hard to rely on his initiative and willingness to push a finish.
The first of the big three races in the Melbourne Spring takes place this Saturday with the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. The $5million feature has attracted a strong contingent of international runners, along with the best of our local stayers in what should be a terrific race. Get our runner-by-runner guide here! read more
A red-hot field has been assembled for the $14million TAB Everest this Saturday, with 12 of the country's elite sprinters set to line up over 1200m at Royal Randwick. Check out our runner-by-runner preview and betting tips for the race here! read more
Our final weekday of racing sees us focus on racing at Warrnambool, Taree and Bathurst, before a blockbuster weekend featuring The Everest and the Caulfield Cup! Check out Luke Krahe's best bets for Friday's racing here! read more
In the third instalment of our Betfair instructional series, we take a look at understanding staking plans and how they can be used to stay in control of your bank roll read more
In our next strategy guide for the Betfair platform, we take a look at understanding how the Betfair markets work and what different types of backs and lays you can place with Betfair! read more
Unlike your ‘normal’ betting agency where it’s you versus the Bookmaker, Betfair is a peer-to-peer wagering platform. Betfair allow you to both ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets, which gives you complete control and a totally unique betting experience. View how full guide to backing and laying here read more
There are approximately 90 Group 1 level harness races in Australia and New Zealand each year; we've highlighted some of most high profile races on the annual racing calendar here. read more
Sportsbet have launched a brand new racing product just in time for the Spring Carnival! Check out more info on their new 'Same Race Multi' feature here read more
The Group 1 Cox Plate is the Australasian weight-for-age championship, run over 2040m at Moonee Valley on Saturday, October 26th. With $5million prizemoney on offer, the race attracts the best local and international middle-distance and staying horses. As we enter the post-Winx era, this year's race shapes as an open betting race; check out the latest odds here! read more
The 2019 Caulfield Cup is one of the biggest races on the Australian racing calendar and will be held at Caulfield on Saturday, October 19th. Check out the latest betting odds for the $5million Group 1 courtesy of Palmerbet here! read more
The TAB Everest is set to be run at Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 19th, with a $14million prize purse up for grabs. Check out the latest betting odds for the world's richest race on turf! read more