UFC 214 is easily the best card the UFC has put on in 2017. It has three title fights and one of the most anticipated, high level rematches of all time. The other two fights promise to be all action slugfests; this is one not to be missed. We preview the main card in our UFC 214 betting preview below.
Daniel Cormier (c) 19-1 vs Jon Jones 22-1
After being stripped of his belt for a felony hit and run, Jon Jones was supposed to return at UFC 200 to reclaim what was rightfully his. However 3 days before that event it was revealed that Jones had tested positive for a banned substance (later found to be from a tainted erectile dysfunction pill..) and he was removed for the card. To say Jones’ career has been shrouded in controversy is an understatement of epic proportions, but he is finally starting to embrace his bad boy persona and it makes for fantastic drama. His opponent Daniel Cormier is the antithesis of Jones, a clean cut, well-spoken former Olympian. The fact these two athletes are the two greatest fighters to ever compete in the light heavyweight division makes this a rivalry for the ages.
Jones talent has never been in dispute, he is the Michael Jordan of MMA and if it wasn’t for his constant suspensions he would have undoubtedly gone down as the greatest of all time (he still very well may). He is technically brilliant in all areas and athletically gifted. His biggest advantage is his reach and he uses it so well with pawing jabs and oblique kicks. Cormier is a much less well rounded fighter, but his ability to use his wrestling to control a fight has been unstoppable against everyone other than Jones. He is excellent when he can force opponents up against the cage and uses excellent dirty boxing to make up for his constant reach disadvantage.
Prediction: The first fight was much closer than the unanimous 49-46 scorecards would have you believe. While Jones was able to pick apart Cormier from distance, the majority of the fight played out in close quarters, where the striking was pretty even. One of the most surprising things to come out of the first fight was Jones’ ability to negate Cormier’s wrestling and he even landed a few takedowns of his own. It wasn’t till late in the bout that Cormier was able to get his wrestling going and took a round from Jones. Despite the closeness of the first fight, Jones was clearly the better fighter and I don’t think Cormier has improved enough to close the gulf in ability. However it’s the intangibles that give me pause here. Jones has only fought once since January 2015 and that performance against Ovince St. Preux was by far and away the worst of his career. Whether he fought down to his competition or it was legitimate ring rust is hard to tell. What is clear is, in the years since their first fight Jones has had more demons than the Ghostbusters to navigate, whereas Cormier has been focussed on one thing, beating Jon Jones. I don’t think Cormier will win, but I also think the odds are far too short on Jones. Instead I will bet this fight to go to decision, neither of these fighters are particularly dangerous finishers and neither of them have ever been finished, this has 5 round classic written all over it. Jon Jones by 49-46 decision.
TIP: Fight to end by decision - $1.62 at Sportsbet
Tyron Woodley (c) 16-3 vs Demian Maia 25-6
In the co-main event Tyron Woodley will look to defend his belt for the third time against one of the greatest BJJ practioner of all time, Demian Maia. Woodley won the belt in July 2016, after flat-lining Robbie Lawler with a brutal overhand right 2 minutes into the first round. He then went on to have two of the most lacklustre title fights in welter weight history against Stephen Thompson, leaving him one of the most maligned champions on the UFC roster. A former NCAA div 1 wrestler, Woodley is an incredibly gifted athlete. Woodley’s striking is characterised by long bouts of inactivity, punctuated with terrifying bursts of all out energy. But there is very little in between. His major weapon is the overhand right, but he also has some nasty leg kicks. Owing to his stature and wrestling background, Woodley’s takedown defence is as good as we’ve seen at welterweight and I don’t expect he will shoot many offensive takedowns against a grappler of Maia’s calibre.
At 39, this is surely Maia’s last shot at UFC gold. His first title shot is unforgettable for all the wrong reasons, as the great Anderson Silva chose to avoid almost all contact and dance around the octagon for 25 minutes earning one of the most bizarre victories in UFC title history. Throughout Maia’s early career he was almost exclusively a grappler, but he has recently added a serviceable kick boxing game, that he uses to push opponents against the fence. On the ground he is best described as smothering. While he possesses excellent submissions, he is more about control and I can’t remember a single time an opponent has escaped his back mount. Maia looked a bit off the pace in his last outing with Masividal and although he took a decision, Masvidal had a lot of success on the feet, particularly with leg kicks. Prior to that he had looked unstoppable. Incredibly he managed to beat Carlos Condit, Matt Brown, Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny, while only absorbing 13 total strikes.
Prediction: On paper this is a terrible match up for Maia. A wrestle-boxer is Kyrptonite for the BJJ practioner and Woodley is the poster boy for Welterweight wrestle-boxers. Maia has next to no chance of getting Woodley down in the open octagon, but if he can back him up against the cage he can find success with chain wrestling. Maia struggled with Masvidal’s leg kicks, so he will find Woodley’s a nightmare. Due to his low output style, Woodley rarely wins rounds decisively, so unless he gets a finish this one will be tight on judges’ scorecards. However Woodley has dynamite in his right hand and Maia doesn’t have the striking defence or speed to avoid it. Woodley by 2nd KO.
TIP: Woodley by KO or on points - $1.50 at Sportsbet
Cristiane ‘Cyborg’ Justino 16-1 vs Tonya Evinger 19-5
Cristiane ‘Cyborg’ Justino will finally get a shot at the featherweight title, a division that was set up in February purely for her to lord over. The inaugural division champion, Germaine de Randamie was stripped of the belt after she flat out refused to fight Cyborg. Cyborg is undefeated since her professional debut in 2005 and has won her last 12 fights by KO; usually in the first round. She is a truly terrifying kick-boxer whose speed, power and strength would not be out of place in the men’s middleweight division. Add to that she is high level BJJ practioner under Andre Galvao, but we have to take his word for it as she barely gets a chance to show it off in MMA. Forget Ronda Rousey, this is the best woman to compete in MMA.
As if fighting Cyborg isn’t hard enough, Tonya Evinger is doing it on short notice (after Australia’s Megan Anderson mysteriously withdrew) and will be competing at featherweight for the first time. But Evinger, the reigning Invicta batamnweight champion, is as tough as they come. She has won her last 11 fights, stretching back to 2011. She is a scrappy wrestler who doesn’t mind taking a shot to give a shot. Despite being the Invicta champion, Cyborg is in another stratosphere in comparison to her recent competition.
Prediction: Evinger is a veteran of female MMA and she will give a good account of herself now that she finally gets a shot on MMA’s biggest stage. However, Cyborg is a bridge too far and eventually she will eventually put Evinger away. However, Evinger is the toughest competitor Cyborg has fought in some time and I don’t expect this to be all one way traffic. Cyborg by 3rd round TKO.
TIP: Outcome of 1st round – to reach next round - $2.30 at Sportsbet
Robbie Lawler 27-11 vs Donald Cerrone 32-8
Other than Jones-Cormier, if there is one fight in this card you cannot afford to miss it’s this one! It’s a matchup between two of the UFC’s most consistently violent participants and is a guaranteed barn-burner. Robbie Lawler is a former multi promotion champion and is responsible for some of the most memorial bouts in MMA history. He is predominantly a striker, who relentlessly pushes forward while unleashing strikes. He is coming off a brutal first round KO to Tyron Woodley, where he lost his UFC title. But he has taken over a year off and has made a smart move in my opinion leaving ATT to train with Henri Hooft.
Donald Cerrone is one of the most beloved and active fights on the UFC roster, due in no small part to his ‘anytime, anywhere’ attitude. He is a Muay Thai fighter with a slick ground game to complement and is particularly renowned for head-kick knockouts. Like Lawler, Cerrone is coming off a devastating KO loss and I think a career of exciting fights is finally starting to catch up with him. He is a notoriously slow starter, which has cost him dearly in his quest for UFC gold. He is also uncharacteristically susceptible to body shots, which is no doubt and area Lawler will look to exploit.
Prediction: This is a fight between two veterans of the sport, with a lot of miles on the clock. Both these fighters prefer to stand and bang, but if it does hit the mat Cerrone will have a big advantage. In saying that, Lawler has some of the best takedown defence in the division. Cerrone has been known to wilt in big fights, while Lawler thrives on them. On top of that Lawler is bigger, strong and has a particular penchant for body shots. I like Lawler in this one. Robbie Lawler by 2nd TKO.
TIP: Robbie Lawler to win - $1.65 at Ladbrokes
Jimi Manuwa 17-2 vs Volkan Oezdemir 14-1
The first fight of night the will most likely determine who is next in line for the winner of the main event. While Jimi Manuwa has long been earmarked as a potential title contender, his opponent Volkan Oezdemir has exploded onto the scene with two massive upset victories over Ovince St Preux and Misha Cirkunov. Manuwa is coming off two vicious KO victories and is a devastating kickboxer. He doesn’t really feint, jab or throw in combination, but he has ridiculous power and lightning speed. His takedown defence is improving, but his defensive ground game is still a massive issue. He is capable of power chokes, but that’s more to do with brute strength than technique.
Oezdemir is a professional kickboxer turned MMA fighter who is showing really strong fight to fight improvement under the tutelage of Henri Hooft. He is a higher volume striker than Manuwa, but lacks his speed and power. He likes to throw in combinations and is good at mixing up punches and kicks. He is certainly more comfortable on the ground than Manuwa, but I don’t expect him to look for takedowns.
Prediction: I expect this one to play almost exclusively as a kickboxing bout and it should be interesting considering their clash of styles. Manuwa has a reach and power advantage, but Oezdemir is more durable and has a better gas tank. If Manuwa gets it done it will be vicious early KO, but I think there is value on the underdog to make it three upsets in three. Volkan Oezdemir by 3rd TKO.
TIP: Volkan Oezdemir to win - $2.50 at Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
