UFC 208 will mark the debut of the women’s 145 pound featherweight division. The division was clearly created for Chris Cyborg, but with yet another doping violation hanging over her head, the opportunity to become the inaugural UFC featherweight falls to Holly Holm and Germaine de Randamie. The debut of featherweights is particularly interesting for Australian MMA fans, as probably our most promising prospect outside the UFC fights in this division. Megan Anderson is the Invicta featherweight champion and a call up to the UFC beckons. Being a new division, there isn’t a lot of contenders and Anderson may soon find herself in a position to try and become Australia’s first UFC champion. Add to that a number of bona fide Brazilian legends and UFC 208 becomes an exciting prospect. Read on for our full card preview and UFC 208 betting tips.
Holly Holm 10-2 vs Germaine de Randamie 6-3
Former boxing Champion Holly Holm will take on former Muay Thai champion Germaine de Randamie in a throwback to the early ‘style vs style’ days of the UFC. 2016 was a very disappointing year for Holm. After shocking the world with a headkick KO over Ronda Rousey in November 2015, Holm lost two fights and her belt last year. Despite coming off two losses, she now has the opportunity to rebound by becoming the first female to hold UFC belts in two weight classes. Although the fifth round submission to Miesha Tate was devastating, it was the lacklustre 5 rounder with Valentina Shevchenko that really took the wind out of Holm’s sails. Being a multiple time boxing world champion, Holm usually has the luxury of being far superior on the feet. She used simple footwork and combinations, like masking headkicks with punches, to great effect. This was the first time she encountered a similarly credentialed striker and she had no answer for Shevchenko’s counter game and was frustratingly inactive for large portions. Holm has always stuck to a cautious gameplan and unless opponents run full steam into her power punches, ala Rousey, her inactivity can cost her when trying to win rounds. Holm isn’t known for her ground game, but she should have a significant grappling advantage. I can’t see her getting a submission, but she can certainly ride out rounds in dominant positions. De Randamie won’t have the same speed and technical proficiency as Shevcenko, but she is another excellent striker and probably the hardest hitter Holm has faced to date.
Germaine de Randamie was 37-0 as a kickboxer when she decided to transition to MMA. She was not given the same slow build as Holm and had already faced veterans Julia Budd, Julie Kedzie and current batamnweight champion Amanda Nunes all within her first seven fights. Despite losing two of those fights she is now reaping the rewards of her baptism of fire. She has finished her last two opponents impressively and showed off an exciting striking arsenal. De Randamie likes to employ a lot of movement and is best when on the outside countering. She is particularly accurate to the body. De Randamie is definitely gaining the most advantage moving up to 145 pounds. She one of the bigger, more athletic fighters and uses it menacingly in the Thai clinch. As expected her Achilles heel is the ground game and that’s been exposed in all 3 of her losses. Training in the Netherlands, I doubt she will be making massive improvements in that area, but it may not matter as Holm has only attempted 2 takedowns in her entire MMA career.
Prediction: This one has the potential to play out entirely as a kickboxing match, even if de Randamie gets a knockdown I can see her asking for a stand up. On the feet, I give the edge to de Randamie. She has shown off a much more dangerous striking offense, albeit she is yet to put it together against top class competition. I think Holm will try and implement some grappling, even if it is just to get de Randamie thinking about it. She doesn’t have a blast double and will need to be careful when locking up as de Randamie has a nasty clinch game. But Holm showed against Rousey she has excellent lateral movement and ability to land counters when retreating from the clinch. De Randamie will go into the fight as favourite, somewhat surprising considering the step up in competition, but Holm is coming off a big loss against a similar opponent. I slightly lean Holm, thinking that she can steal tights rounds with takedowns and will probably be the one dictating the pace in the final rounds. However, my best will be on fight to go to decision. I can’t see Holm getting a finish and her defence is such that she should be able to withstand the de Randamie barrage. Holly Holm by Split Decision.
Bet: Fight to go the distance – $1.80 at Ladbrokes
Anderson Silva (#7) 33-8 vs Derek Brunson (#8) 16-4
It’s a testament to how good Silva was in his prime that he is still considered one of the greatest of all time despite how poorly the last four years have gone. Silva hasn’t registered a win since 2012; in that time he has lost his belt, had a gruesome ‘in cage’ leg break and had his only win overturned due to testing positive for steroids (which he claimed under oath, came from a tainted supply of Thai Viagra). For the decade prior to that he lorded over MMA’s middleweight division with perfect Muay Thai and matrix like reflexes. He holds the record for consecutive UFC title defences (10) and is responsible for some of the octagon’s most incredible moments. At 41, he is very clearly on the decline and that’s rarely a fun ride in combat sports. This issue with fighters who rely on their reflexes for defence is, when they start to lose a step they become very hittable. He looked timid against Nick Diaz, slow against Michael Bisping and completely outmatched against Daniel Cormier. However, Brunson is a considerable step down in competition from those fighters and is a manageable task for even a compromised Silva.
Derek Brunson recently had a 5 fight win streak snapped by Australia Robert Whittaker in Melbourne. While that fight was incredibly entertaining, Brunson was criticised for abandoning all semblance of defence and wildly chasing Whittaker around the octagon before getting countered and finished. But that is Brunson’s M.O., his last four wins have come by first round KO and he has no issue running chin first into a firefight. When he chooses to use it, Brunson has a pretty strong wrestling game and if he is smart will look to exploit Silva’s weak takedown defence. More likely though, he will push forward, look to back Silva against the cage and start uncorking haymakers. Against one the best counter strikers the sport has ever seen, no less.
Prediction: It goes without saying that if Anderson Silva was in his prime, this is a fight tailor made for a highlight reel KO. Brunson has really poor defence and is far too willingly to engage. However with Silva slowing down and his chin faltering, if Brunson does just come forward he may be able to land the KO blow before Silva is able to counter. If he chooses to wrestle he will find success and the days of Silva submitting people off his back are most likely over. Silva showed against Bisping and Diaz, he is still capable of keeping distance and being effective from the outside. He will also have a field day when Brunson inevitably slows down and his defence opens up. I was surprised to see Robert Whittaker open as an underdog against Derek Brunson and I’m almost as surprised to see Anderson Silva open in the same spot. I think these lines should probably be flipped and I like a bet on the Silva to breathe some life into his disappointing career twilight. Anderson Silva 3rd TKO.
Bet: Anderson Silva – 2.21 at Sportsbet
Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (#3) 23-4 Tim Boetsch (#13) 20-10
It’s incredible that BJJ Phenom Jacare Souza still hasn’t fought for a UFC title. Since entering the promotion, the former STRIKEFORCE champion has steamrolled every opponent with his only loss a highly controversial decision to current number one contender Yoel Romero. A combination of injuries and bad luck has limited his opportunities against the division’s elite and again he finds himself in an uninspiring bout against an overmatched opponent. Tim Boetsch is a brawler who likes to come forward to initiate wild exchanges. He has big power in both hands and has won two straight fights by KO. His ‘take one to give one’ style relies on a solid chin, but that has shown cracks in recent years. His ground game is not even worth breaking down as once the floor hits the mat it’s almost a guaranteed finish or 10-8 round for Jacare.
Prediction: This is going to be a tough night for Tim Boetsch, Jacare has shown consistent ability to dismantle opponents of his calibre. Jacare should get the better of it on the feet, but it won’t be long before he looks to drag this fight to the mat and go to work. Boetsch is known for incredible come back KO wins and that’s his only shot here. Despite this, the line on Jacare is too short. However I think the under 1.5 rounds is value. Tim Boetsch doesn’t like fights going to the 3rd round, win or lose all of his last 7 fights have ended in the first two rounds. Couple that with Jacare getting a finish in all but one of his UFC victories and I think this is destined to be a short, violent fight. Jacare 1st round submission.
Bet: Fight to go under 1.5 rounds - $1.80 at Bet365
Glover Texeria (#3) 25-5 vs Jared Cannonier (#15) 9-1
Prospect Jared Cannonier is taking a giant step up in competition when takes on former title contender Glover Texeria. Texeria has been amongst the best light heavyweights for the past 5 years and has only ever lost to the very cream of the crop including a 5 round decision to Jon Jones. He is a terrifying opponent with really good technical boxing and arguably the best offensive grappling in the division. A BJJ black belt, Texeria has good submissions, but at excels at controlling in top position and raining down unrelenting ground and pound. At the peak of his powers he steam rolls a prospect as green as Cannonier, but there are a few reasons to give you pause. Texeria is 37 and is coming off one of the most brutal KO losses of 2016; a monstrous upper cut landed flush from Anthony Johnson.
Originally a heavyweight, Cannonier is a powerful KO artist. After losing in his debut, he went on to win his next two fights including a decision overly the highly touted Ion Cutelaba. Cannonier is not just a slugger, he likes to work behind a jab, has good footwork and an impressive gas tank. Wrestling is clearly his weakness and that pairs ominously with Texeria’s ground prowess. I don’t think Cannonier has the technique to match it with Texeria, but his power and speed advantage will give him opportunities to land power shots.
Prediction: I like Texeria a lot in this fight and expected him to be a bigger favourite. He has the better stand up and if this fights gets to the ground, Cannonier will be in a world of trouble. Cannonier is a big powerful striker and he will carry a KO threat, but that’s likely his only path to victory. Assuming we get a similar version of Texeria, he should be able to work his inside boxing game, get body lock takedowns and earn a TKO stoppage. Glover Texeria by 2nd round TKO.
Bet: Glover Texeria multi’d w/ Dustin Porier - $1.84 at Ladbrokes
Dustin Porirer (#10) 20-5 vs Jim Miller 28-8
The main card kicks off with a fun lightweight scrap between Dustin Poirier and Jim Miller. Poirier was on the verge of title contention before suffering a deflating KO to Michael Johnson last time out. Training out of American top team, he is a dangerous kick boxer, with strong wrestling and a diverse submission game. He has good footwork and always throws in combination. He usually outworks opponents on the feet, but can struggle against power punchers. He has never lost to someone ranked outside the top 10 and always performs well in favourable match ups.
Jim Miller is a 25 fight UFC veteran and is currently enjoying a late career resurgence having strung together 3 consecutive wins. A pioneer of MMA in New Jersey, Miller is a very well rounded fighter, but doesn’t excel in any one area. He has good offensive wrestling and a really crafty submission game, but has struggled to adapt to grappling with the new breed of more physically impressive UFC athletes. On the feet, Miller has a tight boxing and diverse range of Muay Thai strikes, but isn’t known for punching power.
Prediction: In my opinion, Poirier will hold an advantage where ever this fight goes. Miller’s three fight win streak have all been against other fighters at the tail end of their careers and I think that’s the level he should be fighting at. Poirier has been susceptible to getting caught in submissions during transitions and I think that will present Miller’s best opportunity for victory. But I expect Poirier to keep this standing for the majority and probably earn a late TKO victory. Dustin Poirier by 2nd TKO.
Bet: Dustin Porirer vs Jim Miller – $1.84 at Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
