The UFC always likes to make a splash to mark their debut in a significant new market and that's certainly the case with UFC 205.
Almost 12 months ago to the day they booked Etihad stadium and brought out Ronda Rousey for a record-breaking show in Melbourne. Now, after winning a decade-long legal battle, the UFC finally makes its debut in New York City and bring its special kind of entertainment to the Garden.
UFC 205 is stacked with three title fights and the Notorious Conor McGregor taking on Eddie Alvarez. Read on for our preview and UFC betting tips of the main card!
UFC 205 Betting Tips
Eddie Alvarez (C) 28-4 vs Conor McGregor (c) 20-3
Conor McGregor is looking to become the first fighter in UFC history to hold belts in two weight classes and the world’s most famous arena, Madison Square Garden is the perfect setting. Standing in his way is veteran Eddie Alvarez who won the lightweight title from Rafael Dos Anjos after a long stint as Bellator’s lightweight champion. Despite eventually emerging victorious, McGregor’s two fights with Nate Diaz showed off some pretty glaring weaknesses in the Brash Irishman’s game. He faded badly early in both fights, but I wonder how much of that was down to fighting at 170 pounds and Diaz’s incredible pace.
McGregor is obviously an extraordinary striker with innovative timing and movement. He throws everything with great power and accuracy, but there’s some Irish magic in his slip left hook. He likes to be the one coming forward and is excellent at creating space for his punches and using inside angles. I think McGregor’s style is much more effective when he is the taller guy and he will enjoy having a reach advantage over Alvarez after two fights against the lanky southpaw Diaz. McGregor employed a lot more kicks in his fights with Diaz and I think he continue that against Alvarez. McGregor effectively uses offence and movement to avoid takedowns, but the jury is still out on how he handles top class wrestlers.
Raised on the mean streets of Philadelphia, Eddie Alvarez is affectionately known as ‘the underground king’ due to him being long considered the best lightweight not in the UFC. He is a well-rounded fighter with technical boxing and effective MMA wrestling. He has good footwork and works the body and head in combination. He has solid striking defence, but tends to get wild when an opponent starts connecting and that will be dangerous against someone who cuts angles like McGregor.
Despite being wobbled regularly in fights, Alvarez has a great ability to recover and hasn’t been finished by strikes since 2007. He isn’t known for his punching power and his TKO of Dos Anjos was the first finish of his UFC career. Whenever Alvarez can close the distance he will be at a big advantage. He can hold McGregor against the fence and dirty box or control him on the ground. He has excellent cardio and will no doubt try and stifle McGregor’s offence to drag him into the latter rounds.
Prediction: McGregor fights are always so hard for me to pick. He has such a big advantage range striking, but such a disadvantage everywhere else. I’m looking forward to how he deals with the Alvarez takedown threat and it wouldn’t surprise me if McGregor catches him with a step in knee. McGregor generally likes to be the one coming forward, but I think he will have a lot of success in this fight countering Alvarez’s pressure. Alvarez has no problem fighting boring to win and I think if he can hold McGregor up against the cage for 25 minutes, he will do it. Even if McGregor fades again I think he can do enough damage to Alvarez in the opening stanzas that it won’t matter. Conor McGregor by 2nd TKO
Tip: Conor McGregor multi’d w/ Joanna Jedrzejczyk - $2.02 at Sportsbet
Tyron Woodley (c) 16-3 vs Stephen Thompson (#2) 13-1
This is one of the rare times when a debuting title challenger comes in as the betting favourite, but Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson has earned the accolade by cementing himself as one of the most formidable strikers on the UFC’s roster. Tyron Woodley won the Welterweight strap by knocking out former champion Robbie Lawler with a big overhand right two minutes into their encounter. All but one of Woodley’s UFC wins have come by KO or TKO and despite his impressive NCAA wrestling background he is known primarily as a knockout artist. Woodley relies on basic right side strikes, but he covers distance so effectively that it often catches opponents off guard. He has tremendous power and is always quick to follow up on a compromised opponent. He wrestles most effectively up against the cage where he can pin opponents or use it to get them down and into dominant position. His explosive style does mean he tends to gas out and the only fight he has ever had go past the 3rd round was a loss to Nate Marquardt.
Before entering the UFC, Stephen Thompson amassed an incredible 57-0 record as a kickboxer. His only career blemish to date was a decision loss to Mat Brown who managed to hold him down for long enough to win 2 rounds. He has since teamed up with Chris Weidman and has sured up the his takedown defence. He originally comes from a sport karate background and has an unorthodox style which no one has figured out. He masks attacks very well and his kicks are particularly hard to defend. He has managed to avoid the takedowns in all but one of his fights, but wrestling is still the obvious path to victory against a striker of his calibre. Even if Woodley can’t get the fight to matt, if he can make Thompson focus on his takedown attempts it will open up opportunities on the feet.
Prediction: Whenever this fight is at range, Thompson will have a big advantage. Maintaining distance will by key to avoiding Woodley’s power shots and takedown attempts. Woodley is always dangerous and Thompson does like to keep his chin up and hands down, but once Thompson gets loose he should overwhelm Woodley on the feet. Woodley needs to implement a high pressure game and get Thompson backing up. Even if Woodley gets some success with his wrestling early, if he expends too much energy he will have a hard time defending Thompson’s kicks in the championship rounds. Rory McDonald recently survived 5 rounds with Thompson, but he has much better striking defence and I can’t see Woodley making it to the cards. Woodley’s best chance to win will be with a KO, similar to way he won the belt. I think the first few round will be close, but Thompson will eventually take control and should force a stoppage. Stephen Thompson by 4th TKO.
Tip: Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO - $2.63 at Sportsbet
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (c) 12-0 Karolina Kowalkiewicz (#2) 10-0
Two undefeated Polish fighters will do battle for the womens straw weight title, in a fight that is sure to get some love from New York’s big Polish community. Joanna Jedrzejczyk will look to defend her title for the 4th time and continue her very dominant reign. Jedrzejczyk was a multiple time Muay Thai champion before transitioning to MMA and her striking has looked a level above thus far in her career. She uses angles and flurries very well and opens up with big combinations when she has her opponent up against the fence. Her impenetrable takedown defence is what has allowed her to strike so freely and no one other than Claudia Gadelha has had any success grappling. Its rare for a 115 pound fighter to have stopping power, but Jedrzejczyk has earned a number of TKO finishes via damage accumulation and her elbows from the clinch can get particularly nasty.
Jedrzejczyk has looked great against wrestlers and grapplers, but this is the first time she is coming up against a striker who will be looking to match it with her on the feet. Not only is Karolina Kowalkiewicz Polish, she also comes from a Muay Thai background; so this should be an interesting style match up. Kowalkiewicz’s striking is hallmarked by movement, volume and defence. She can’t inflict the same amount of damage as Jedrzejczyk, but I can see her being able stay out of range and interrupt Jedrzejczyk’s rhythm with counters. Like Jedrzejczyk, Kowalkiewicz has displayed solid takedown defence, but I don’t see her needing it here. This will only be Kowalkiewicz 11th professional fight, but she remains undefeated and looked completely unfazed when taking a big step up in competition against Rose Namajunas.
Prediction: This fight will be worth it alone to hear long suffering commentator Mike Goldberg navigate this pronunciation minefield. It presents an interesting test for Jedrzejczyk who will have a much less stagnant opponent than in her previous title defences. Ultimately her power and accuracy should make the difference, but I expect it to be closer than the odds suggest. A finish is unlikely for either women, but Jedrzejczyk does have an outside chance of getting a late TKO. Joanna Jedrzejczyk by 49-46 decision.
Tip: Joanna Jedrzejczyk multi’d w/ Conor McGregor - $2.02 at Sportsbet
Chris Weidman (#2) 13-1 vs Yoel Romero (#4) 11-1
Long Islander Chris Weidman has been the poster boy for the legalization of MMA in New York and while he isn’t able to bring the middleweight belt to the Garden, I expect him to get an even bigger pop than McGregor. It will also be the first time his coach, New York MMA pioneer Ray Longo will get to corner someone in his home state. In Yoel Romero they have the perfect Heel. Romero is a Cuban Silver Medallist wrestler who has a well-earned shady reputation after instances of fence grabbing, stool stalling and PED suspensions. If it wasn’t for a ‘tainted supplement’ suspension, Romero would be contending for the middleweight belt after compiling 7 straight impressive victories in a stacked division. At 39 he is a still a genetic specimen and is capable of generating a lot of power and speed with his strikes. Nine of his eleven career wins have been by TKO and while Weidman has shown off an impressive ability to absorb punishment, Romero is the most dangerous striker he has faced. Romero’s success on the feet means he hasn’t really had to show off much in the way of wrestling, but he does tend to get tired if he is forced work up against the cage.
Despite having two TKO wins over the great Anderson Silva, Weidman has never been known as a striker. While he has steadily improved over the years under the tutelage of Longo, he remains susceptible on the feet and Romero can definitely catch him here. If Weidman can avoid the big shot, he can win the striking battle with volume, but his clearest path to victory is grappling. A two time All American, Weidman has developed into one of the best submission wrestlers in the sport. He is very good at transitioning forward pressure into takedowns and is dominant from top position.
Prediction: On paper, Romero’s Olympic pedigree would seem to nullify Weidman’s ground game. But Romero hasn’t shown enough wrestling to date and I don’t expect him to be very comfortable off his back. Romero has the ability to hurt Weidman on the feet, but I don’t expect him to be able to outscore him on the judges’ cards. Weidman is coming off a serious neck surgery and you have to wonder if he is rushing things to be ready to fight on this historic card. Regardless he won’t lack any motivation. Romero could have the best of it early, but Weidman’s all round technical superiority will see him takeover late. Chris Weidman by 3rd Submission.
Tip: Chris Weidman in round 3 or by decision - $1.80 at Sportsbet
Kelvin Gastelum (#5) 13-2 Donald Cerrone (#6) 31-7
With the division’s title on the line later on in the co-main event, this excellent fight between two top welterweights takes on even more significance. Ultimate fighter winner Kelvin Gastelum is a surprisingly well rounded mixed martial artist for someone so young. He is most dangerous coming forward and initiating clinches, but is comfortable wherever the fight takes place. Gastelum will be at a striking disadvantage and will need to use footwork and forward pressure to score points and get the fight out of striking range. On the mat he should be able to avoid Cerrone’s submission threat and can win rounds on top.
Donald Cerrone has enjoyed a career resurgence at 170 pounds. After losing a lightweight title fight to Rafael Dos Anjos, three impressive victories have seen him solidify himself as a title contender in the welterweight division. Cerrone is a Muay Thai specialist who can out strike most people he comes up against. Gastelum’s two loses come against striker’s who have frustrated him by controlling range. Cerrone definitely has the tools to do this and this will be the first time Gastelum has faced someone with this range of offense. Cerrone has showed off more wrestling recently, but I don’t think that will be on his mind in this fight. He has an active guard and is always a submission threat on the ground, but if Gastelum can crowd him up against the fence it will limit Cerrone’s offensive output.
Prediction: Cerrone will have a reach advantage, but Gastelum is clearly the bigger, more powerful fighter. Cerrone came out absolutely sizzling in his last fight with Rick Story, but you can’t bank on too many performances that perfect from anyone. Gastelum has never been finished and baring something spectacular from Cerrone, I don’t see that streak ending. A three round striking clinic from Cerrone is certainly possible, but I think Gastelum should be good enough to keep this fight close and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get a decision on the judges’ cards. Kelvin Gastelum 29-28 decision.
Tip: Fight to go to decision - $1.70 at Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
