The Wallabies sidestepped an ambush in Mendoza last weekend with a second half rally of real character which must give them heart for the return bout against Argentina. There are some key changes, starting with the late loss of hooker Folau Fainga'a and James O’Connor in at flyhalf for the clash in San Juan on Sunday morning (AEST).
Meanwhile, the All Blacks were comprehensively beaten 26-10 by the Springboks on the opening weekend of The Rugby Championship and head to hostile Ellis Park for another tough Test.
Jim Tucker is back with his preview and rugby betting tips for Week 2 of The Rugby Championship 2022.
The Rugby Championships 2022 Week 2 Preview & Betting Tips
Argentina v Australia
Bicentenario Stadium, San Juan, Sunday August 14th, 5:10am (AEST)
Editor's Note: Preview and tip has been updated at 2:30pm Saturday given key late changes.
As many changes as the Wallabies have made, some will be of clear benefit for this Test. The late loss of hooker Folau Fainga'a is definitely not one of those. It actually flips predictions for the whole Test.
O’Connor adds valued experience at No.10 and coach Dave Rennie made a point of saying that was a big factor in his selection considering Quade Cooper, Allan Alaalatoa and Michael Hooper are missing from this side. There will be some querying this call after O’Connor’s kicking miscues and turnovers in his last Test against England in Brisbane. He was rusty after so long out rather than not up to it. He has had a 40-minute club hit-out since and plenty of sharpening with speed work to be ready for the Pumas.
Lalakai Foketi has been in strong form this year for the NSW Waratahs and Australia A. He is an unfazed type so could slot in nicely at inside centre even though there is no match-proven chemistry between O’Connor, Foketi and Len Ikitau in the midfield which is always a concern. A rushing Pumas defence may cause a few disjointed moments and handling errors.
Up front, the pack gets a boost with Taniela Tupou raring to go as starting prop and lineout trump Rory Arnold at lock. Tupou holds the Wallabies' chances in his giant frame because he has to keep the scrum stable.
The worry is at hooker and the unproven front-row back-ups on the bench where debutant Pone Fa’amausili, Matt Gibbon and rookie hooker Billy Pollard have played just a few minutes of Test rugby between them. The Pumas once lived to scrum. They still love the art and will apply disruptive pressure throughout. Lachie Lonergan comes in to start at hooker for Faingaa. He has just five Test cameos behind him but an excellent Brumbies season. It's a massive test of his ability. He is a buzzsaw of energy around the field but he'll only be marked on scrummaging and lineout throwing in the cauldron of San Juan.
The Wallabies did a superb job of re-setting mid-Test last weekend and finding a way back from 19-10 down at half-time with four second half tries for a 41-26 result.
The Argentinians lacked some smarts in defence and the Wallabies pounced. You can fix a lot of things in a week but turning dodgy defenders into good ones is hard.
The Wallabies can still score enough points to win the second Test but it will be close because a disrupted set piece can erode the whole side. This is a huge character test again.
The Pumas showed their own fighting qualities to rally from 28-13 down in the recent Test against Scotland to steal a victory on full-time.
The Pumas have made some changes of their own and will get more punch with the reinstatement of Gonzalo Bertranou at halfback inside rising young flyhalf Santiago Carreras. Flanker Pablo Matera showed his star class with the early try last weekend and he will be a thorn again.
The Australian try after the final bell ruined our tip of $3.50 on a win by 1-14 points last weekend.Fainga’a delivered last weekend at $2.40 on our prediction of an “Anytime Try” from a driving maul off a lineout. His absence has flipped our prediction from a Wallabies win to Argentina winning by 1-12 points at $3.80. That’s top value with TAB.com.au considering the Pumas have learnt enough to win the second Test of the year against the Wallabies in 1987, 1997 and 2014.
Argentina win 1-12 points
$3.80 (3 units)
South Africa v New Zealand
Ellis Park, Johannesburg, Sunday August 14th, 1:05am (AEST)
The All Blacks are in a rare whirlpool. They’ve lost five of their past six Tests and copped their biggest loss to the Springboks in 94 years last weekend (26-10). Coach Ian Foster is barely hanging on.
The Kiwi forwards were outmuscled last weekend. I’m going to take a punter’s view on this return Test at Ellis Park in Jo-burg. The All Blacks aren’t suddenly an awful team. They have amazing strikepower. There’s character and there is fight. You will wait another 100 years to find the All Blacks at $2.80 to win a Test and $7.50 to win by 13+ points which is how Ladbrokes have listed them. That’s too good to overlook so have a nibble at both.
The All Blacks have installed Richie Mo’unga at flyhalf. The front-row of Tyrel Lomax, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Ethan de Groot is one few could have imagined just three months ago. It’s up to them to produce some fire and starch.
New Zealand WIN
$2.80 (3 units)
