The second of the two semi finals in the AFL this weekend will see Brisbane host Adelaide at the Gabba on Saturday night. The Lions suffered a shock loss last week but are the clear favourites to bounce back at home and continue their quest for a three-peat. Will they be too strong like the odds suggest?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Lions vs Crows below. Show your support by creating an account with Dabble to help us keep our content free!
Brisbane vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Semi Final
Lions Demanding a Response
Brisbane return to the Gabba for Saturday night's Semi Final needing to address an uncharacteristic defensive lapse. The two-time defending premiers were thoroughly outplayed by Sydney in last week's Qualifying Final, conceding 141 points on their way to a 53-point defeat. It marked the most points a Chris Fagan-led side has conceded in 21 finals appearances, placing immediate scrutiny on their defensive structures and transition running. The midfield group, anchored by Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft, and Josh Dunkley, was comprehensively beaten around the ball by the Swans, and they will be desperate to reassert their physical edge this week. Returning to their home deck gives the Lions a crucial opportunity to reset, tidy up their stoppage work, and keep their hopes of a premiership three-peat alive.
Crows Carrying Genuine Belief
Adelaide travel north with plenty of confidence after securing a 90-68 Elimination Final victory over the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval. The result broke a nine-year finals drought for the club and continued an impressive run of form that has seen Matthew Nicks' side win 10 of their past 13 matches since the mid-season bye. Izak Rankine has been a primary catalyst for that surge, putting together an exceptional run of form and producing elite numbers across the past two months. The key challenge for Adelaide now is translating that strong home form to a hostile interstate environment, testing whether their defensive discipline can hold up under sustained heat away from home.
The Gabba Hurdle
The teams met in Brisbane back in Round 7 this year, with the Lions running out comfortable 52-point winners, 19.13 (127) to 11.9 (75). Brisbane's midfield was absolutely dominant that night, led by Lachie Neale with 42 disposals and Will Ashcroft who gathered 36 touches, while Zac Bailey stuffed the stat sheet with 29 disposals and three goals. The Crows' resistance was largely led by captain Jordan Dawson, who fought valiantly for his 28 disposals and two goals, but Adelaide ultimately lacked the depth of contributors to stem the tide.
Where the Value Lies
It is difficult to back against Brisbane at home, particularly when they are coming off a heavy defeat. Chris Fagan's side rarely produces two poor performances in a row, and you can expect a sharp response from their senior midfielders after a poor display last week. Adelaide's recent form is strong, and their defensive structure has improved enough over the back half of the season to ensure this match is much tighter than the Round 7 blowout. However, the Lions' forward firepower and track record at the Gabba should be enough to see them over the line. Expect a tight, contested battle before Brisbane's class eventually tells in the second half.
Brisbane 1-39
$2.20 (1 Unit)
Brisbane vs Adelaide Prop Bet
Logan Morris was well held by the Swans last week but still managed four shots at goal for 2.2 and he’s now kicked 18 goals over the past four weeks (4, 4, 8, 2). He’s the clear number one option up forward for the Lions and in a game where they are set to start at around 4-goal favourites, he will get plenty of chances in front of goal. Great value here.
Logan Morris 3+ Goals
$2.60
Brisbane vs Adelaide Same Game Multi
Brisbane to Win: For the reasons mentioned above in our best bet.
Darcy Fogarty 2+ Goals: He has been consistently hitting the scoreboard with 2+ goals in each of his last eight matches.
Cam Rayner Anytime Goal Scorer: He’s kicked at least one goal in eight of his last 10 matches and usually performs well in big matches.
Brisbane vs Adelaide Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday, 12th September
Time: 7:35pm AEST
Location: Gabba, Brisbane
Odds: Brisbane $1.33 vs Adelaide $3.35
Line: -21.5
Points: 179.5
Where to Watch Brisbane vs Adelaide
You can watch the Lions vs Crows live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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