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2026 AFL Semi Finals: Tips, Predictions & Betting Odds

September 7th 2026, 11:29am, By: Heath Chick

AFL Semi Finals Preview and Tips
2026 AFL Finals Series
AFL
Semi Finals
Four teams remain in action and two places in the Preliminary Finals are on the line as the 2026 AFL Finals Series reaches the Semi Final stage.
Two games. Two winners. No second chances.

The 2026 AFL Semi Finals are set, with four clubs fighting to keep their premiership campaigns alive following a dramatic opening week of the traditional top-eight finals series.

Friday night sees Fremantle host Geelong at Optus Stadium, with the minor premiers receiving their second chance after falling to Hawthorn in their Qualifying Final. Geelong kept their season alive by progressing through their sudden-death final against Carlton.

On Saturday night, Brisbane host Adelaide at the Gabba. The Lions get another opportunity following their Qualifying Final defeat to Sydney, while Adelaide move on after eliminating the Western Bulldogs.

The equation is now simple for all four teams: win and advance to a Preliminary Final, lose and the 2026 season is over.

2026 AFL Semi Finals at a glance
  • - Fremantle v Geelong – Friday night at Optus Stadium.
  • - Brisbane v Adelaide – Saturday night at the Gabba.
  • - Both Semi Finals are sudden-death matches.
  • - Hawthorn and Sydney have already qualified for the Preliminary Finals.
  • - The two Semi Final winners progress to the final four.
First Semi Final
Fremantle VS Geelong
FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER   •   8:10PM AEST   •   OPTUS STADIUM

Fremantle vs Geelong

Head to Head
FREM ($1.57) vs GEEL ($2.41)
Line
FREM -9.5 ($1.90)
Total Points
172.5 points ($1.90)

The first Semi Final takes us back to Perth as Fremantle host Geelong at Optus Stadium on Friday night.

Fremantle's reward for finishing on top of the ladder was a double chance, and they now need to make the most of it after losing their Qualifying Final to Hawthorn. There is no further safety net from here, with the Dockers' season on the line.

Geelong arrive in Perth having survived their first knockout assignment against Carlton. The Cats now face another do-or-die contest, this time on the road against a Fremantle side that was one of the competition's strongest teams throughout the home and away season.

The betting market has Fremantle as the clear favourite at $1.57, with Geelong at $2.41 at the time of writing. The Dockers are also giving away a 9.5-point start in line betting.

The winner progresses to a Preliminary Final against Sydney, while the loser's 2026 premiership campaign is over.

Fremantle vs Geelong Tips →

betr Wildcards

Second Semi Final
Brisbane VS Adelaide
SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER   •   7:35PM AEST   •   THE GABBA

Brisbane vs Adelaide

Head to Head
BRIS ($1.35) vs ADEL ($3.25)
Line
BRIS -19.5 ($1.90)
Total Points
178.5 points ($1.90)

Saturday night's second Semi Final sees Brisbane host Adelaide at the Gabba in another sudden-death contest.

Brisbane were denied direct passage to a Preliminary Final by Sydney and must now regroup at home. The Lions remain firmly in the premiership race, but their double chance has been used and another defeat would bring their season to an end.

Adelaide arrive in Brisbane with momentum after surviving their Elimination Final against the Western Bulldogs. The Crows now face the significantly tougher assignment of beating Brisbane on its home ground to advance to the final four.

Brisbane are strong $1.35 favourites in the head-to-head market, with Adelaide at $3.25 at the time of writing. The Lions have been installed as 19.5-point favourites, while the total points line sits at 178.5.

The winner will travel to face Hawthorn in the Preliminary Final, while the losing team's 2026 season is finished.

Brisbane vs Adelaide Tips →

Dabble

What Happens After the AFL Semi Finals?

Just four clubs will remain in the race for the premiership once the Semi Finals are complete.

The winner of Fremantle vs Geelong will advance to face Sydney in a Preliminary Final, with the Swans having earned the week off by winning their Qualifying Final.

The winner of Brisbane vs Adelaide will progress to meet Hawthorn, who also advanced directly through to the final four.

The winners of those two Preliminary Finals will then meet at the MCG in the 2026 AFL Grand Final.

2026 AFL Semi Finals Betting Tips

Before You Bet will provide full match previews and betting tips for both games during the 2026 AFL Semi Finals.

We'll analyse the latest head-to-head odds, line betting, total points markets, team selections, injuries and key match-ups before providing our best bets for Fremantle vs Geelong and Brisbane vs Adelaide.

You can also visit our AFL Tips page for all of our latest finals coverage, or check the latest 2026 AFL Premiership Odds as the race for the flag reaches the final four.

 

Heath is one of the original founders and the active Managing Director of The Trifect Group, the company that owns and operates Before You Bet.

Heath has worked in the wagering industry for two decades. Formally in the poker industry, Heath ran Australia's leading poker news portal before transitioning across to lead Before You Bet. Heath also manages other TTG projects that include our US based site Total Sports Picks and our daily fantasy sports website Daily Fantasy Rankings.

On Twitter, you'll find Heath providing unsolicited commentary on the latest cricket, NBL, darts or AFL matches - mixing fortunes with the success of his JackJumpers in the NBL with the misfortune of the lowly North Melbourne in the AFL.

Heath will occasionally contribute content in these fields, but otherwise is left to manage operations which includes business development, affiliate partnerships and our content & editing team. Feel free to connect with Heath via our Contact Us page if you'd like to discuss any new business opportunities with us!

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