Rugby league fans are given everything they desire in the 2026 State of Origin series with a Game 3 decider. What more could you want? It has been a series whereby both teams have produced interesting performances, with neither looking like the finished product they desire to capture the series. The Blues scraped home in Game 1 and were punished for their mistakes in Game 2, looking inept in what they were trying to achieve. With the momentum with the Maroons, it will be intriguing to see how the Blues rally in a hostile environment. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the game and hopefully find you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
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2026 NRL State of Origin Game 3 Predictions & Tips
Queensland vs New South Wales Preview
The series headed down to Melbourne for Game 2 and Maroons saluted following an unexpected outcome in Game 1. With a full complement of players on the field, the Maroons set a new standard which the Blues could not match, performing to the level that was expected of them after a fast start in Game 1 of the series. It was a slow start which saw them trail 12-8 at HT. A brilliant display in the second half saw them 6 tries, with a late try to the Blues coming during ‘garbage time’ to only narrow the margin of victory.
The Maroons were a class above and it show statistically. With a 55% share of possession, they completed at 95% (Blues 80%), made more metres per carry (8.5m vs 7.8m), had more PCM’s (484 vs 863), and created significantly more opportunities in attack via their line breaks (7 vs 2). They were stronger defensively also, missing fewer tackles (30 vs 40) which allowed them to shut down the Blues attacking movements in positive field possession. This was the way that Game 1 was trending so it was no surprise to see the Maroons execute to this standard and it will be a huge challenge for the Blues to stop their opponents.
Maroons or Blues? Here's our State of Origin Game 3 Tip
Momentum is a key factor in performing well in rugby league and there is no question that it is with the home team. Aside from the advantage of playing at home (QLD have won 8 of the past 9 Game 3 matches at Suncorp), there is little doubt that they are the superior team in 2026. They dominated majority of Game 1 until Ponga was dismissed and generated a dangerous level of attacking power to make the Blues look inept despite their ability to complete well. This had led to numerous changes within the Blues team. The inclusion of a new centre pairing offers a stronger defensive structure on the edge, with Martin coming in to offer a punch in the back row; he will have the Maroons halves looking for him as they take the ball to the line.
The other key changes come from the bench, and the Blues must get this right in Game 3. They failed in this area in Game 2, heaping further pressure on the coaching staff. The Maroons have also reacted to the potential of a faster game, recalling Carrigan and Nanai to their interchange. It is scary to think that the home team can get better. If they were to have their momentum disrupted, the quality of player within their team means that they can react in a positive way to swing this back in their favour. Unfortunately for the Blues, there are too many doubts about how they will perform compared to their opponents to invest on them with any confidence. It is a proven formula for Maroons success, and it again should fulfil the narrative of Queensland spirit following a defeat in Game 1.
Queensland 1-12
$2.75 (1.5 units)
NRL State of Origin Game 3 Best Prop Bets
Who will score the first try?
Outside backs (players 2-5) have a knack of scoring first in Game 3 matches. Since 2011, they have scored 11 times, with centres have scoring 6 times and wingers 5. Another interesting statistic to point out is that Queensland has scored first in all but 3 Game 3 matches since 2011. Out of the 19 tries scored this series, 5 have been by forwards.
Queensland
Best Bet = Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $10 at Ladbrokes – he has scored two tries so far this series and arguably hasn’t been at his best. The Maroons are aware of his attacking threat and will look to give him every opportunity to cross the tryline.
Value = Briton Nikora @ $23 at Ladbrokes – the addition of Nikora to the starting team for Game 2 gave the Maroons a quicker set of attacking forwards. A noted try scorer at club level, Nikora is a threat both running the ball and chasing kicks, giving him multiple opportunities to grab a try.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $7.50 at Neds – making his debut in Game 2, Nawaqanitawase gabbed a double and should only grow in confidence ahead of this game. The Blues scored 3 tries on the right edge too and Nawaqanitawase should only benefit from having a stronger ball carrying centre inside him.
Value = Bradman Best @ $17 at Neds – recalled for this game, Best has earned his way back to this level via his tremendous form at club level. You can expect that to continue here as he looks to leave his mark on the series and help his team. He is at his best with the ball in hand and providing he gets this early, he should be a handful for his opponents to try and stop.
Man of the Match Prediction
This is a market which is always advised to stay away from. Since 2011, a player outside of the spine (1, 6 7 & 9) has only won this award twice, with one of those (Corey Parker – 2014) coming in a dead rubber. Already this series, both halfbacks have been awarded this honour, crucial to the success of their team over 80 minutes.
Queensland
Best Bet = Cameron Munster @ $9.50 at Ladbrokes – Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Munster thrives at this level and is yet to dominate the contest for 80 minutes. That is somewhat harsh to say because he has been influential in his team’s success in 2026. With another strong performance expected, it is time he is recognised for this.
Value = Reuben Cotter @ $36 at Ladbrokes – Cotter has also been terrific thus far for the Maroons, dominating the middle of the field. If it is a low-scoring match which requires relentless defensive efforts, Cotter will be in his element. It does go against the trend of players winning this award, but it should come as no surprise if he is awarded this honour.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Nathan Cleary @ $7.50 at Neds – he captured this award in Game 1 after being influential in leading the Blues comeback. Following unwarranted criticism for his Game 2 performance, Cleary will want to add his mark on this game. If the Blues are to win this game, you can expect his fingerprints to be all over the result.
Value = Payne Haas @ $15 at Neds – there was a notable difference in the middle of the field with Haas back in a Blues jersey. He is vital to the success of the Blues and will again need to deliver a strong performance to give his team an edge.
Over or Under? Our Total Points Prediction
The average total points in State of Origin Game 3 matches since 2011 is 36.6 points. However, in the first two games of this series we've seen more high scoring encounters with the average total points scored being a lofty 55. We like to lean more towards recent history and how the games are currently being played, which makes taking the over in the total points market the more enticing play if you're keen to tap into this market.
Total Points – Over 44.5
$1.90
State of Origin Same Game Multi
Based on the selections we've talked about above, there's a juciy Same Game Multi you can play at big odds using these legs:
QLD 1-12
Total Points Over 44.5
Nikora & Nawaqanitawase to score
Queensland vs New South Wales Team Lineups
Queensland
1. Kaylan Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Briton Nikora 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Reuben Cotter Interchange: 14. Max Plath 15. Patrick Carrigan 16. Jeremiah Nanai 17. Trent Loiero 18. Reece Walsh 19. Murray Taulagi Reserve: 20. Corey Horsburg
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco 2. Jack Bostock 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Payne Haas 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray 15. Addin Fonua-Blake 16. Haumole Olakau’atu 17. Blayke Brailey 18. Ethan Strange 19. Tolutau Koula Reserve: 20. Victor Radley
Queensland vs New South Wales Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Wednesday 8th July
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Time: 8:05pm (AEST)
Odds: Queensland $1.55 vs New South Wales $2.50
Line: -5.5
Points: 43.5
Where To Watch the State of Origin?
You can watch the Maroons vs Blues live and free on Channel 9, while full replays will be shown on Kayo Sports!
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