Round 16 of the 2026 AFL season kicks off this Thursday night at the Gabba with the game of the round as Brisbane host Sydney in a blockbuster. Draftstars are offering over $50,000 in guaranteed prize money in their main daily fantasy tournament.
This is the marquee single-game slate of the season to this point and the storylines are extraordinary. Both sides come off the bye and arrive fresh for what shapes as a genuine preview of September. Sydney are one of the top teams in the competition and enter as slight favourites despite travelling north to the Gabba, where Brisbane historically hold one of the strongest home-ground advantages in the competition. The Swans comfortably defeated Brisbane in Round 1 this season but the Lions are a different proposition at home. Most models have this within a converted goal either way, making it one of the most genuinely contested single-game slates of the 2026 season for daily fantasy. For Brisbane, Ryan Lester is confirmed back from a calf niggle, giving the Lions important depth across the ground. For Sydney, Errol Gulden, Tom McCartin and Peter Ladhams are all confirmed in with Gulden playing his first game since earlier in the year.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 16 Lions vs Swans
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Thursday: Where to Attack?
The matchup data for this game will be hard to work through given both teams are very tough opponents, however it does scream out for specific plays across the two teams.
The most significant offensive angle on this slate runs through the Brisbane side as they have been giving up +4.54 points above league average to key forwards and +6.11 above average to general forwards over the last 10 games. So despite being on the road I would be looking to play the Swans forwards in this matchup and it helps that they are favoured to win this game given they are coming in as arguably the best team in the league.
On the flip side, Sydney have been conceding above average points to designated kickers (+2.86), which benefits Brisbane’s rebound half-back style of attack. I will be looking to stack up the Lions backs on this slate and that is a typical play when they are at home at the Gabba.
One note of caution: the ruck contest is going to be a tough one with both teams playing two rucks. Witt Peter Ladhams back into the lineup but Grundy playing as well I would be looking to fade the Swans rucks against the Lions and picking up some salary relief by not playing Grundy.
Game Script – Sydney key forwards and general forwards, Brisbane backs
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Thursday – Our Value Fantasy Picks
Charlie Curnow ($10,060) is the underpriced forward play of the slate and the matchup data makes a compelling case. Brisbane have been giving up 4.54 points above league average to key forwards at a 57% win rate and 6.11 above average to general forwards — a combined generosity in the forward line that makes the Lions one of the more targetable sides for attacking players in the competition over the last 10 games. Curnow's score of 130 two weeks ago is the ceiling reference that confirms exactly what is available when he gets supply and converts in front of goal, and his last-three average of 93.7 is well above what his $10,060 price reflects. His opponent scores against Brisbane of 59, 57 and 72 are modest, but those came in earlier rounds when his role was less established and his form was more inconsistent. The Curnow who kicked five goals for 130 points is a completely different proposition and at his current scoring level he is paying well above his price. At $10,060 in Brisbane's softest forward matchup with a 130-point ceiling two games ago, he is the value forward lock of the slate.
James Jordon ($8,090) is one of the most interesting differential plays on the slate and the role angle is the entire case. With Lachie Neale the clear danger man in Brisbane's midfield, Jordon profiles as Sydney's most likely tagging assignment — a role that historically puts him into the thick of the action at virtually every centre bounce, generating the contested possessions, tackles and clearance work that drive his scoring regardless of whether the tag is effective or not. His last two scores of 78 and 72 confirm his floor has lifted materially since his role has firmed in Sydney's defensive midfield system. His opponent scores against Brisbane of 32, 64 and 73 are improving game by game, with that 73 the most recent reference and a ceiling well above what $8,090 prices in.
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Thursday – Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Josh Dunkley ($12,840) is a fascinating mid-price play that requires eyes-open assessment. The honest starting point is that his 2026 form has been noticeably below the standard that made him one of the competition's premier fantasy midfielders — his last five scores of 92, 87, 63, 78 and 77 average just 79.4 points against a career average of 102.4, and there is no clear role explanation for the drop, just a quieter year by his own elite standards. That is the caveat. What makes him compelling despite the form dip is the combination of two factors that rarely align so cleanly. First, his opponent history against Sydney is extraordinary — scores of 108, 132 and 130 in his last three meetings, averaging 123.3 in this exact matchup, the most consistent elite opponent record of any Brisbane player on the slate. Second, his centre bounce attendance has remained high throughout 2026 — he continues to attend 65-70% of Brisbane's CBAs — meaning the platform for a ceiling score is always there even when his actual output has been modest. In a game that shapes as genuinely contested with both teams boasting elite midfield depth, the type of hard-running, high-tackle, clearance-driven game that produces big Dunkley scores is exactly what Thursday night at the Gabba should deliver. At $12,840 he is priced off his 2026 form rather than his ceiling, and the ceiling in this exact matchup is 130 points.
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Thursday – Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Will Ashcroft ($14,170) is the Brisbane premium play noting that Lachie Neale will quite possibly be tagged by Jordan. He has returned to regular midfield time that saw a return to form in his last game posting a career best 152. His opponent scores against Sydney of 67, 118 and 66 are variable but that 118 is the ceiling reference and tells you what he can produce when his contested work fires.
Darcy Wilmot ($15,480) has emerged as one of the most consistent half-back scorers in the competition in 2026 and his price looks genuinely undervalued given his recent output. He has posted 105, 103, 125, 99 and 110 in his last five for a last-three average of 111 points — a staggering run of consistency that makes $15,480 look like a bargain. His opponent scores against Sydney of 103, 106 and 88 — all above 88, averaging 99 in this exact matchup — confirm this is a productive game for him. Sydney have been giving up above average scores to designate kickers and in recent weeks Wilmot has taken over those responsibilities with Zorko out of the lineup (shared with Jaspa Fletcher, a nice value pairing).
Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Fantasy Round 16 Thursday
Weather Report for Thursday 25th June
The Gabba (Brisbane) — 18 degrees, clear. Ideal winter evening conditions for the Thursday night blockbuster.
AFL Betting Markets Round 16 Thursday
Brisbane ($2.10) vs Sydney ($1.75)
Points: 181.5
Line: Sydney -4.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Thursday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
