Saturday’s sandwich game takes us to Wellington, where the Warriors are taking a home match to Sky Stadium and facing a Dolphins side that still looks vulnerable whenever the game gets fast and wide. From a betting perspective, I’m far more interested in the New Zealand points than the side or total. The Warriors are averaging a touch over 31 points per game, the Dolphins are conceding just under 28 per game and sit among the poorer defensive teams in the competition, and the matchup itself points strongly toward a healthy Warriors score. Team news pushes things further that way: the Warriors lose Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad but still field a dangerous backline, while the Dolphins are without Kodi Nikorima and have shifted Brad Schneider into the six.
Let's break it all down!
Warriors vs Dolphins Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 8
Dolphins Still Too Loose Defensively
The Dolphins’ last game, a 23-22 golden point loss to Penrith in Darwin, was gutsy and dramatic, but it didn’t really change their larger profile. They fell behind 18-0, mounted an enormous comeback, and still lost when Nathan Cleary slotted the late field goal. There is obvious attacking quality in this side. Herbie Farnworth was influential again, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow threatened as he usually does, and they showed enough speed and late game spark to drag a top side deep into extra time.
The problem is that they keep spotting teams control. Falling behind heavily, leaking field position, and needing second half chaos to recover is not a sustainable way to win in the NRL. Even when the Dolphins are dangerous, they still concede too many points and too many momentum swings. That is especially dangerous against a Warriors side that has been one of the sharper attacking outfits in the competition all season. If the Dolphins give New Zealand the sort of field position they gave Penrith early, they may not be chasing one or two tries, they could be trying to reel in four or five. I’m also very concerned about how much that tough game in Darwin took out of them physically last weekend, in some of the most brutal conditions seen on a football field.
The good news for Souths is that this matchup gives them a lot more margin for error than last week did. The Dragons don’t have the same punch through the middle, they don’t have the same ability to stretch games, and they are entering Round 7 with a damaged backline. If the Rabbitohs can replicate even half of what they produced in attack after halftime last week, there should be enough points in them to cover a decent start.
Warriors Good Enough to Respond
The Warriors’ 28-20 win over the Titans was not perfect, but it still said something positive about where they are at. They blasted out to a 22-0 halftime lead, looked fast and direct with the ball, and then did enough to absorb the Titans’ late push. Alofiana Khan-Pereira bagged a first half double against his old club and New Zealand again looked like a side capable of scoring quickly once they got their shape working.
That matters because the market may be underrating just how reliable the Warriors’ attack has become. They have scored points consistently, and even when they have had flatter stretches in games, they have still been able to generate enough field position and edge pressure to put totals under stress. Against the Dolphins, who remain a bottom tier defensive side by the numbers, the setup is ideal. The venue could bring heat from the crowd, and the Warriors have enough strike out wide to turn that energy into points quickly if the Dolphins’ edges lose shape.
Warriors vs Dolphins Recent History
These sides met twice in 2025, with two tight contests producing low scores, something unexpected from the Dolphins in 2025.
In their most recent meeting in round 22 last season, the Dolphins got the win on the road at Go Media Stadium, sneaking home 20-18 after a last minute Jamayne Isaako try. Earlier in the year, the Warriors managed the road win, getting by the Dolphins 16-12 at Suncorp Stadium in round 11.
Recent results:
2025 Round 22: Dolphins def Warriors 20-18
2025 Round 11: Warriors def Dolphins 16-12
2024 Round 23: Dolphins def Warriors 34-32
2024 Round 12: Warriors def Dolphins 24-20
2023 Round 27: Dolphins def Warriors 34-10
A real back and forth history between these teams, will it continue here?
Warriors Team Total Is the Play
I’m not especially interested in laying a side number here, because Wellington can be quirky, and the Dolphins still have enough attack to create volatility. But the Warriors team total over 28.5 stands out. They are averaging over 31 points a game, the Dolphins are leaking close to 28 a match and sit around the fourth-worst mark in the league defensively, and the matchup screams points if New Zealand get front foot ball.
The biggest reason I like the team total specifically is that it lets us lean into the best part of the game state without overcomplicating the rest. The Dolphins do have enough strike to turn this into a fast, messy evening, and that actually helps the Warriors score. Even if the match becomes a little wild, New Zealand are the side I trust more to consistently convert pressure into tries. The loss of CNK hurts a little in backfield organisation, but not enough to move me away from a number that still sits below their scoring baseline. If the Warriors play to their average, this bet is live. If the Dolphins defend the way they usually do, it is in terrific shape.
There’s also a nice angle in how the Warriors tend to score. They’re not purely reliant on grind-and-break type football; they can score off early set yardage, shape shifts, support play and broken-field opportunities. That makes them much easier to back in a team total market than a side that needs every try to come off three repeat sets in good ball. Against a Dolphins team that can get loose around the ruck and on the edges, that variety matters. It means New Zealand don’t need everything to be perfect to still land 30.
The weather and venue could scare some punters off, but I’m not especially worried. If anything, a neutral-ish setting in Wellington may help the Warriors play a little freer, and the Dolphins’ profile suggests they’re more likely to contribute to an open game than shut it down. I don’t need the Warriors to dominate every minute here. I just need them to get to the part of the game where the Dolphins are defending tired, retreating and out of shape. That has been a reliable scoring window against them all year.
Warriors (team total) over 28.5 points
$1.94 (1.5 Units)
Warriors vs Dolphins Player Prop Bet
Has scored in both the last two games for the Dolphins and appears to be rounding nicely into form for the Dolphins. Coming up against Ali Leiataua this week, I see Herbie having too much guile to not score again.
Herbie Farnworth (1+ try)
$2.55
Warriors vs Dolphins Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Warriors (-7.5) – See best bet.
Leg 2: H Farnworth (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: J Ford (1+ try) – Ford has been the best forward in the game this year, and against a weak-bellied Dolphins’ defence, Ford has every chance to barge over for another try this week.
SGM Odds: $21.29 at Ladbrokes
Warriors vs Dolphins Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 25th April
Location: Sky Stadium - Wellington
Time: 6:05pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 11 degrees
Odds: Warriors ($1.45) vs Dolphins ($2.80)
Line: Warriors (-7.5)
Points: 49.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Where to Watch Warriors vs Dolphins
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