The moment of truth has arrived for the Matildas. After a gruelling month of tournament football, Australia returns to Stadium Australia this Saturday night with the chance to lift the AFC Women's Asian Cup for the first time since 2010. Standing in their way is a familiar and formidable foe in Japan. We have broken down the ultimate showdown and provided our best bet for the decider below.
Matildas vs Japan Preview and Betting Tips: AFC Women's Asian Cup Final
Australia chasing history on home soil
Joe Montemurro’s side secured their place in the final following a tense 2 to 1 victory over reigning champions China on Tuesday. Sam Kerr produced a moment of magic from a remarkably tight angle to seal the win after Alanna Kennedy continued her incredible goal scoring run. While the attacking firepower has been brilliant all tournament, the defensive resolve shown in the semi final will give the hosts massive confidence. They managed to shut down a highly physical Chinese outfit and will need every bit of that defensive structure against an incredibly technical Japanese side in front of a packed Sydney crowd.
The Japanese juggernaut
Japan enters the final as the undisputed form team of the competition. They comfortably dispatched South Korea 4 to 1 in their semi final and have looked practically unstoppable going forward. Head coach Nils Nielsen has his team playing a relentless brand of possession football, and they boast serious pedigree on this stage having defeated the Matildas in both the 2014 and 2018 Asian Cup finals. With superstars like Yui Hasegawa pulling the strings in midfield and an intimate knowledge of the Australian setup through assistant coach Leah Blayney, the Nadeshiko will feel incredibly confident about spoiling the home party.
Stats that matter
- Japan has won the last two Asian Cup finals contested between these two nations.
- Australia last lifted the trophy back in 2010.
- Japan conceded their very first goal of the entire tournament during their semi final win over South Korea.
A tactical battle for the ages
This is shaping up to be an absolute classic. Japan might hold a slight mental edge given their historical dominance in finals against Australia, but the Matildas have their own momentum building behind them. The home crowd at Stadium Australia will be absolutely electric, and Kerr thrives on these massive occasions. Japan will likely control the majority of possession and look to pick through the defensive lines, meaning Australia will need to be ruthless on the counter attack. Given the stakes and the defensive solidity both sides can produce when it matters, expecting a tight and cagey opening half is the smart play.
Half Time Result: Draw
$2.10 (2 units)
Matildas vs Japan Match Info and Odds
Date: Saturday, 21st March 2026
Location: Stadium Australia, Sydney Time: 8:00pm AEDT
Odds: Australia $2.80 vs Japan $2.50 (Draw $3.10)
Where to Watch: Live and free on Channel 10 or stream ad free via Paramount+.
