Super Bowl LX closes the 2025 season with a matchup that feels tailor-made for bettors who trust postseason structure over regular-season noise: the Seattle Seahawks’ balanced offence against a New England Patriots team that’s comfortable dragging games into the mud and winning on defence, field position, and quarterback mobility. Played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, this is the type of Super Bowl where tempo can swing wildly based on who lands the first clean touchdown drive, or where one or two negative plays (sacks, fumbles, a red-zone penalty) can decide both the side and the total.
From a betting perspective, Super Bowls trend conservative when the matchup is tight. Coaches shorten decision trees, possessions become precious, and defences are built to take away explosives first. That’s why spread value matters more than “who’s better,” and why totals around the mid-40s often hinge on red-zone outcomes rather than yardage.
The Seahawks arrive off a high-quality NFC title win at home, showcasing balance and finishing drives. New England, meanwhile, survived a blizzard-style AFC Championship rock fight in Denver in a one-score game where every snap was a negotiation.
Below, we break down how each team got here, what the market is asking you to pay, and the best edges across side, total, and prop markets. Be sure to tail our tips at one of Australia's best sports betting apps for the Super Bowl.
2026 Super Bowl Predictions, Props & Betting Preview
Patriots & Seahawks Conference Championship Recaps
New England Patriots — Defeated Denver Broncos 10–7 (AFC Championship)
New England’s path to the Super Bowl wasn’t pretty — it was playoff football in its purest form. In near white-out conditions in Denver, the Patriots won 10–7 in a game where ball security, field position, and a handful of high-leverage plays decided everything.
Denver struck first with a short touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, but New England’s defence responded by squeezing the game into a trench battle. The Patriots’ front generated 3 sacks and consistently forced Denver into low-yield drives, finishing with 59 tackles and multiple tackles for loss in a game where every yard mattered.
Offensively, New England leaned on two things: Drake Maye’s legs and surviving negative plays. Maye and the run game combined to keep the Patriots out of repeated long-yardage traps, with Maye producing 65 rushing yards and scoring the Patriots’ only touchdown on a 6-yard keeper. The passing game was inevitably limited by conditions — the Patriots’ receivers combined for 86 total receiving yards — but that was the point: protect the ball, take what’s available, and let the defence win the leverage downs.
The takeaway: New England are fully comfortable playing a low-possession, high-variance game — and they’ve now proven they can win when the environment forces the offence to be functional rather than explosive.
Seattle Seahawks — Defeated Los Angeles Rams 31–27 (NFC Championship)
Seattle’s NFC Championship win was the opposite type of stress test: a divisional heavyweight fight where you had to score, finish drives, and answer punches. The Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27 at home, opening fast, responding to momentum swings, and landing the final clean touchdown that created separation.
From the scoring sequence, you can see Seattle’s offensive identity: early balance, then play-action and sequencing to create scoring windows. Kenneth Walker III opened the scoring with a short rushing touchdown, while the aerial damage was spread — with scoring strikes involving Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo, and Cooper Kupp.
The Rams kept swinging (including two third-quarter touchdowns to stay glued to the game), but Seattle’s ability to answer quickly was the separator. One drive was literally a one-play, 17-yard touchdown response — the kind of “dagger response” that kills upset scripts. Walker’s impact was felt in the way the game stayed on schedule and allowed Seattle to choose when to be aggressive.
The takeaway: Seattle can win a shootout when required — but they still prefer to win through balance and run-game control, not pure volume passing.
Super Bowl Spread Betting & Total Points Tips
Spread Betting
This is a Super Bowl margin bet built on game shape.
Three reasons Patriots +4.5 is live:
- New England’s defensive structure keeps games inside the number
The Patriots just won a conference title in a 10–7 environment where the offence barely existed, and it didn’t matter. That’s a profile that stays alive deep into fourth quarters.
- Maye’s mobility is a pressure release, not a gimmick
Even when throwing is compromised, Maye can manufacture “free” first downs and flip field position. His rushing production (and the designed usage near the goal line) is exactly the type of edge that keeps underdogs competitive.
- If you like the under, you should strongly respect the dog
Totals in the mid-40s imply fewer possessions and fewer true separation opportunities. That naturally increases the value of points, especially above the key numbers.
Patriots +4.5
$1.93 (2 Units)
Total Points Market
This total is sitting in the danger zone where yardage can be misleading — you can move the ball and still cash the under if drives end in punts, field goals, and red-zone stalls.
Why the under is strong:
- New England want compressed tempo and will happily turn this into a field-position game if it’s close.
- Seattle can win with patience. If they’re ahead at any point, their cleanest path is to lean on Walker and shorten the game.
- Super Bowls often become more conservative late, especially if the game remains one score into the fourth.
Verdict: Under 45.5 is a top-tier play.
Under 45.5 Points
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
Key Players & Prop Markets Betting Tips
Kenneth Walker (Rushing Yards)
This is the most script-aligned prop on your card.
Why it plays:
- Seattle’s best version is balance-first, and Walker is the engine for that identity.
- PFF has Seattle’s run-blocking offensive line as the best of any team this postseason, which is a massive green flag for rushing efficiency holding up under playoff pressure.
- If you’re backing under 45.5, you’re implicitly backing a game where both teams spend long stretches running to stay on schedule.
Kenneth Walker over 71.5 rushing yards
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Cooper Kupp (Receiving Yards)
This is a role prop, and it’s even cleaner once you look at how New England’s coverage matchups can funnel targets.
Key angle: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a prime candidate to be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, which increases the chance Seattle lean harder on secondary options and inside timing routes to stay efficient. Kupp doesn’t need to be the featured weapon to clear 32.5 — he just needs steady underneath work and one chain-moving catch-and-run.
Why it plays:
- If Gonzalez reduces JSN’s “free access” reps, Seattle’s next-best stabiliser is often the experienced separator working zones.
- 4–5 touches at modest efficiency clears this number comfortably.
Cooper Kupp over 32.5 receiving yards
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Hunter Henry (Receiving Yards)
We’re not selling this as “Henry is a postseason alpha” — we’re selling it as a matchup and geometry prop.
Why it makes sense:
- Seattle’s defence can be elite overall and still leak production over the middle, particularly to tight ends working underneath zone windows. Yahoo’s Super Bowl matchup framing has specifically pointed to Seattle’s zone structures as a potential opportunity for Henry.
- Over the 2025 season, tight ends collectively produced substantial volume against Seattle (including 105 TE receptions as tracked in season splits).
- The under bet also supports more third-down, chain-moving throws — and that’s where tight ends often do their best work.
Hunter Henry over 38.5 receiving yards
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Drake Maye (Anytime Touchdown / Super Bowl MVP)
This is still a clean playoff-style prop.
Why it’s live:
- Maye already scored New England’s only touchdown in the AFC Championship on a designed keeper.
- In high-leverage games, QBs with mobility become red-zone problem solvers — especially when defences win early in the down and force improvisation.
- Maye MVP is the best value on the board. If the Patriots win, Maye has to be a 95% chance at taking the MVP.
Also Backing: Drake Maye Super Bowl MVP + 25 yards rushing $5.00 @ NEDS (0.5u)
Drake Maye anytime touchdown
$4.25 (0.5 Units)
Final Thoughts
This Super Bowl sets up as a game where style matters as much as talent. Seattle have the cleaner path to explosive points, but New England have the cleaner path to keeping this inside one score — and that’s exactly what you want when you’re taking +4.5 and the under.
If the Patriots can avoid the “quick deficit” scenario and force Seattle into a patient, drive-by-drive game, the under stays alive and the spread becomes extremely valuable late. And if Seattle do get ahead, Walker’s volume and Seattle’s postseason run-blocking edge make your rushing prop one of the strongest ways to ride that script.
Bet the game shape... not the highlight reels.
