A tighter 10-game Monday morning slate greets us in NFL Week 13, courtesy of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday fixtures thinning out the usual chaos. Even so, the slate still offers a fascinating mix of defensive matchups in the early window and highly volatile fantasy environments later in the day. Seven games kick off early, with only Rams @ Panthers (44.5) projecting as remotely high-scoring. The remaining matchups sit in the low-40s or below, meaning we need to be selective, disciplined, and willing to embrace uncomfortable plays to access ceiling outcomes.
The late window gives us just three games, headlined by Bills @ Steelers (45.5) — a matchup that could blow past the total if both defences continue their recent slide. With $20,000 guaranteed on Draftstars and $2,000 to first, roster differentiation and slate-specific strategy will decide who climbs the leaderboards this week.
Below, we break down every position, expand your player selections with relevant 2025 stats, and map out a clear route to stacking, anchoring, and leveraging your way toward a profitable Week 13.
NFL 2025-26 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 13 Monday
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford — $17,010
Matthew Stafford is now the deserved favourite for the 2025 NFL MVP, and his statistical profile backs it up. He enters Week 13 with:
- 2,830 yards
- 30 passing touchdowns
- Just 2 interceptions
- Top-three ranking in EPA/play
- Top-five in completion rate over expectation (CPOE)
Stafford has shredded nearly every defence he’s faced, with only Baltimore and Seattle holding him below 17 fantasy points — both elite units that disguise coverages pre-snap better than any in the league.
This week’s matchup is not that.
The Panthers will be without Jaycee Horn (concussion), leaving a secondary that already ranked bottom-five in explosive pass plays allowed to defend the league’s hottest quarterback. The Rams are also 10.5-point favourites, projecting a script where Stafford and this passing game feast early and often.
Stack him confidently with Nacua, Adams, Williams, or a combination in a game the Rams genuinely could put away before halftime.
Cam Ward — $10,710
Cam Ward is the salary-saving quarterback of the slate. And yes — it's justified.
Since the Titans’ Week 10 bye, Ward has delivered two of his three best fantasy performances of the season against elite defences in Houston and Seattle. His accuracy has improved, he’s pushing the ball to intermediate windows with more confidence, and most importantly:
He has rushing floor.
Ward has 9 carries for 70 yards across the last two weeks, finally tapping into the athleticism that made Tennessee draft him.
This week he gets the Jaguars — a defence showing flashes, but not even close to the Texans or Seahawks in terms of overall cohesion or pressure rate. Jacksonville ranks bottom-ten in pressure rate over the last month, giving Ward more time in the pocket and more escape lanes if plays break down.
This is not a ceiling play — but it doesn’t have to be. His newfound rushing equity plus Tennessee’s condensed red-zone usage gives Ward a stable floor at a bargain-bin price.
QB Strategy
This slate is simple:
You either pay up for Stafford, who is in the only high-total environment early, or you punt down with Ward to unlock elite skill players.
Because there are so few appealing mid-range QBs, ownership will condense around Stafford and whichever late-window QB people feel safest about. That creates leverage:
- Stafford stacks = raw ceiling + low bust risk
- Ward lineups = salary relief + differentiated builds
- Avoid the “dead zone” QBs, who carry identical risk without comparable ceiling
Lean into build structure rather than “best plays.” This is a slate where the field chooses wrong at QB far more often than it chooses right.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane — $19,150
Achane is the premier point-of-difference play at running back this week.
Most players will gravitate to McCaffrey or Taylor, but both have tough matchups (Browns, Texans). Achane gets the Saints — a defence that can be stout up front but has repeatedly had issues containing speed backs who threaten the edge.
Achane enters Week 13 with:
- 9 rushing TDs
- Top-five RB yards per touch
- Top-three breakaway run rate
- The highest fantasy points per touch of any RB with 100+ touches
The Saints may try the same “stack the box” approach they used vs Rico Dowdle, but Achane is not a binary runner — he’s a home-run hitter who can flip a slate in one play.
In a week where chalk RBs have landmines attached, Achane is the cleanest high-price leverage option available.
James Cook III — $14,240
Cook’s season continues to be one of the most efficient in football. Even with Buffalo’s offensive inconsistencies, Cook has:
- Only two games under 10 fantasy points
- A top-10 RB target share
- A top-five yards per route run among RBs
- The ability to break a play at any moment
The Steelers’ defence has improved since September, but they remain vulnerable to backs who can catch passes in space — and Cook fits that description perfectly. His ceiling this week hinges on touchdowns, but in a projected high-scoring environment, he should get multiple opportunities.
A safe mid-range RB with a top-five ceiling.
Kenneth Gainwell — $8,800
Gainwell has quietly had a career-best season in Pittsburgh, fully earning his “change-of-pace plus” role behind Jaylen Warren. Even with Warren returning to full practice, Gainwell’s role remains:
- Passing downs
- Third downs
- Red-zone participation (near equal to Warren in Week 12)
He also ranks top-10 among RBs in targets per route run, giving him sneaky PPR upside on Draftstars.
This is a prototypical FLEX play with RB2 upside at a value price point. Gainwell fits balanced builds, Stafford stacks, and salary-tight constructions.
RB Strategy
Three clear tiers emerge:
1. Pay-up leverage (Achane)
Perfect for contrarian builds that aim to beat highly owned chalk RBs.
2. Mid-range stability (Cook)
A staple in lineups that use Ward at QB or double-spend at WR.
3. Salary-savers (Gainwell)
Allows premium stacks and positional upgrades elsewhere.
Roster construction at RB this week should prioritise floor + touchdown paths, not volume alone. With many games projecting low scoring, backs who can break big plays (Achane, Cook) become far more valuable.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams — $14,180
With Jaycee Horn out, this matchup screams ceiling for Adams.
He leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns, remains one of the top red-zone targets in football, and consistently sits around 6–7 targets per game. He may not have the volume of a prototypical WR1, but he has unmatched touchdown equity in the Rams’ offense.
Carolina’s secondary has allowed:
- Top-five rate of TDs to WRs
- Top-three rate of explosive passes
- A bottom-ten EPA per dropback
Adams has legit multi-touchdown potential here. This is the most cost-efficient WR1 ceiling on the slate.
Jaylen Waddle — $13,130
Waddle has transformed into the Dolphins’ WR1 with Tyreek Hill sidelined. Even without explosive Miami passing production this year, Waddle ranks:
- Top-15 in yards per route run
- Top-10 in target share since Week 10
- Top-10 in fantasy points per target
The Dolphins are 4.5-point favourites at home, and Tua has historically performed dramatically better in Miami. The Saints struggle defending speed and layered route-runners, meaning Waddle’s path to 8–10 targets is clear.
If he finds the end zone, Waddle ends the slate as a top-five WR.
John Metchie III — $8,440
Two straight games of 13.5 and 18.5 fantasy points have launched Metchie into weekly FLEX relevance. It’s not volume-driven — it’s touchdown-driven — but at this price, that’s acceptable.
Tyrod Taylor trusts Metchie in the red zone, and the Jets have started scheming him into intermediate crossers and slants, increasing separation and scoring opportunities.
Better yet:
Metchie now faces a Falcons secondary that has been torched for big plays and ranks bottom-five in completion percentage allowed over the past month.
Low ownership + touchdown equity + great matchup = elite low-salary WR leverage.
WR Strategy
This is a slate to target touchdown upside and explosive-play potential rather than raw volume. With so many low-total games, receivers who can create chunk plays or win in the red zone carry outsized value — making Adams, Waddle, and similar profiles ideal building blocks. Cheap WRs with TD equity, like Metchie, become strong leverage pivots in tournaments. Prioritise stacking with your QB, avoid the crowded mid-range “safe” plays, and use WR to differentiate your builds without sacrificing ceiling.
Tight Ends
George Kittle — $12,200
Trey McBride is the only TE playing better football right now — and Kittle still projects as a top-two option.
Cleveland’s defence is elite, but tight ends have produced against them, with the Browns allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Kittle ranks:
- Top-five in yards per target
- Top-three in YAC per reception
- Top-three in end-zone targets among TEs
Volume + red-zone equity + explosive-play ability makes Kittle an elite TE1 this week.
Juwan Johnson — $9,430
Johnson has caught three straight touchdowns since Tyler Shough took over, becoming one of the most reliable cheap TEs in DFS.
Miami ranks:
- 5th most receiving yards allowed to TEs
- 5th most fantasy points allowed
- Bottom-ten in red-zone TE coverage
This is the ideal salary-saving TE play — Johnson gives you top-six upside at a mid-range price.
Tight End Strategy
A true fork-in-the-road decision:
1. Pay up for Kittle
Safe floor + elite ceiling. Works beautifully with Ward builds.
2. Save with Johnson
Allows premium WR/RB stacks without tanking your TE ceiling.
Avoid the “in-between” plays this week. The drop-off after these two is steep.
Defence / Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks — $6,810
This is the premium play of the slate.
Seattle faces an undrafted rookie making his first career start, behind a Vikings offensive line missing key starters. This matchup projects:
- High sack upside
- Turnover volatility
- A likely negative script forcing 35+ pass attempts
The Seahawks could flirt with 20+ points, making them a pay-up-to-be-different D/ST option.
Tennessee Titans — $4,160
An underrated defensive unit with legitimate upside.
The Titans have posted 15 and 20 fantasy points in two of the past seven weeks, and Trevor Lawrence remains one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the league. Tennessee is also at home in a divisional matchup — historically one of the best environments for defensive outlier scores.
If you need value, this is your play.
D/ST Strategy
- Seattle for ceiling
- Tennessee for value + leverage
- Avoid middle-priced defences stuck in low-play-volume environments
D/ST will swing tournaments this week — prioritise pressure rate and turnover paths over points allowed.
Slate Strategy & Roster Construction
This is not a normal slate. Only one early game projects for scoring, and ownership will centralise around a handful of plays. Your edge comes from:
1. Embracing discomfort
Plays like Achane, Metchie, Gainwell, and Ward open unique roster builds.
2. Correlated stacks
- Stafford + Adams/Nacua/Williams
- Ward + Spears/cheap Titans run-back
- Bills/Steelers mini-stacks in late window
3. Salary structure
This week rewards extremes:
- Stars + scrubs
- Heavy mid-range
- Premium stacks with value TEs/DST
Avoid balanced, middle-priced builds — they lack ceiling
Final Thoughts
Week 13 is a slate defined by low totals, one elite passing game, and several mispriced leverage options. Your advantage is leaning into the volatility:
- Stafford stacks = raw ceiling
- Achane = premium contrarian
- Ward = unlocks everything
- Metchie + Gainwell = slate-shaping value
- Kittle/Johnson = simple TE pool
- Seahawks/Titans = D/ST clarity
Build with purpose, embrace leverage, and don’t fear uncomfortable constructions. These are exactly the slates where sharp DFS players make their biggest moves.
Good luck — see you at the top of the leaderboard.
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