Round 18 of the NBL26 season begins on Wednesday night with a juicy double-header of Ignite Cup action. Second up on the slate is a matchup between the South East Melbourne Phoenix and the New Zealand Breakers at the State Basketball Centre. We bring you our full preview and betting tips for the clash below!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for every game of the NBL26 season, so make sure to head over to our NBL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content.
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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers Prediction & Betting Tips: NBL26 Round 18
Phoenix Going from Strength to Strength
The South East Melbourne Phoenix enter Round 18 with significant momentum following a dominant 108–89 victory over the league-leading Adelaide 36ers at HoopsFest. That win was particularly impressive as it came in the absence of co-captain Nathan Sobey, who missed the clash due to illness. In his stead, Ian Clark flourished, pouring in 27 points, while Owen Foxwell nearly broke a club record with 12 assists. Sitting comfortably in second place on the NBL26 ladder with a 17–8 record, Josh King’s side has now officially beaten every team in the competition this season. With Sobey expected to return for Wednesday's matchup at the State Basketball Centre, the Phoenix look to tighten their grip on a top-two finish and advance their Ignite Cup standing.
Breakers Still Alive
The New Zealand Breakers arrive in Melbourne fighting to keep their post-season aspirations alive. Currently placed seventh with a 10–15 record, the Breakers secured a vital 104–86 win over the Cairns Taipans during the HoopsFest festivities in Perth. However, that victory came at a heavy cost, as import big man Rob Baker II suffered a season-ending ACL injury. The burden now falls heavily on star guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Izaiah Brockington to maintain the offensive output. While New Zealand currently leads the Ignite Cup standings, their inconsistent perimeter shooting remains a concern, especially against a Phoenix team that leads the league in three-point volume and pressure.
Recent H2H History
Historical trends heavily favour the "Heartland" side in this matchup. South East Melbourne holds a dominant 15–7 all-time head-to-head advantage over the Breakers. This season has been no different; the Phoenix have already secured two wins against New Zealand, including a 92–80 victory in Round 12 where Sobey exploded for 36 points. Looking back further into the NBL25 season, the Phoenix won three of the four encounters. The Breakers have often struggled with the Phoenix's scoring depth and transition game, particularly at the State Basketball Centre, which has become a fortress for the Melbourne-based club.
Phoenix too Strong? Here’s Our Tip!
The Phoenix are currently listed as 7.5-point favourites, and there is a strong case for them covering this spread. South East Melbourne’s offensive efficiency is at an elite level, and the return of Sobey alongside an in-form Ian Clark creates a backcourt pairing that the shorthanded Breakers will find difficult to contain. Without Baker II to anchor their interior defence, New Zealand may struggle to stop Jordan Hunter and John Brown III from dominating the glass. Given the Phoenix's ability to go on devastating double-digit scoring runs, as evidenced by their 16–0 and 15–0 bursts against Adelaide, expect them to pull away late and comfortably cover the -7.5 line in front of a sold-out home crowd.
Phoenix –7.5
$1.80 (2 Units)
Phoenix vs Breakers Dabble Pick‘Em
Popular sportsbook Dabble have launched Pick’Em - a new a simpler way to combine player markets from the same game for bigger odds. We’ve put together a 3-Leg Pick’Em for the Phoenix vs Breaekers clash that you can follow via the link below! You can also learn more about Dabble’s Pick’Em feature here.
- Parker Jackson-Cartwright 18 Points (MORE)
- Ian Clark 13 Points (MORE)
- Rueben Te Rangi 7 Points (MORE)
Dabble Pick‘Em Odds Multiplier: 6.5x ($10 to win $65) - Click here to get involved!
Phoenix vs Breakers Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Wednesday, January 21st, 2026
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Location: State Basketball Centre, Victoria
Odds: Phoenix $1.25 vs Breakers $4.00
Line: Phoenix -9.5
Points: 190.5
Where to Watch Phoenix vs Breakers
You can watch the Phoenix vs Breakers clash live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back In our Phoenix vs Breakers Tips at Dabble!
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