Another big-time matchup on Friday Night NRL, however with a host of big names missing, it could be a bit tighter than originally predicted. The 8th placed Roosters will head to Melbourne to take on the 2nd placed Storm, in a pivotal clash for the final makeup of the top 8. Should be a cracking contest.
Ben Bridge brings you his preview and NRL best bets for this match below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Picklebet via this link!
Storm vs Roosters Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 25
Storm Set to Rest Several Stars
The Storm continued their surge towards the finals, winning their fifth-straight last week by defeating the Bulldogs on Friday Night Football, 20-14. With a top 2 finish all but secured for the Storm, the quest for the Minor Premiership has taken a back seat as Head Coach Craig Bellamy has looked this week at resting some of his bigger names so they are fresh for the finals.
Last week in their victory over the Bulldogs, the Storm lost star hooker Harry Grant to suspension, as their skipper will now miss two weeks for a shoulder charge. Silver lining, he will be fresh come finals time. Statistically last week, the Bulldogs absolutely dominated the Storm, and I don’t know if it’s more concerning for the Bulldogs, or more impressive from the Storm that they managed the win. The Bulldogs outgained the Storm by over 400 metres, made 10-line breaks to three, popped 15 offloads to five, and managed 54% possession, however still lost the game. Ryan Papenhuyzen looked dangerous in his return from injury, scoring a try, setting up a line break and running for 132 metres, whilst Cam Munster was also heavily involved, setting up a try and running for 110 metres.
Roosters Ill-Discipline to Cost Them Place in Top 8?
The Roosters come into Round 26 clinging onto the eighth and final place in the finals. However, with the Dolphins and Sea Eagles breathing down their necks, they need to keep pushing to make the finals. Last week, the Roosters took on the Eels at CommBank Stadium as healthy favourites. Unfortunately, they lost Sam Walker to a concussion inside the first 10 minutes and were never in the game from that point on, with the Eels running out 30-10 winners in a six try to two demolition. Whilst the loss of Walker proved a difference, it was clearly the horrific ball handling and discipline from the Roosters which cost them the game, making an astonishing 22 errors, the second most of any team this season. With a completion rate of just 57%, the Roosters never had a chance.
Looking for positives, and winger Mark Nawaqanitawese was solid in attack, setting up two tries, busting six tackles, popping three offloads and running for 120 metres, but he was poor in defence. There was not a lot else to write home about if you’re a Roosters fan, and they will need to be a whole lot better to beat the Storm this week.
Storm vs Roosters Recent History
The Storm have dominated the recent rivalry before these two heavyweights, winning the past seven games, and 12 of the past 13 matchups with the Roosters. This run also includes two impressive finals victories over the Chooks, in a rivalry that has been decidedly one-sided of late.
Interestingly, the two teams met just over a month ago at Allianz Stadium in Round 21, where the Storm went off as 3.5-point road favourites, with a closing total of 46.5. In a cracking game of football, the teams traded tries back and forth throughout, with neither team managing to score three unanswered tries, and the biggest margin throughout the game being the 8-point lead the Roosters enjoyed after the 47th minute Lindsay Collins try which had the Roosters leading 24-16. It took a 72nd minute try to Stefano Utoikamanu for the Storm to take the lead for good, winning 34-30 on the road.
The statistics were just as tight, with not much separating the teams on the stat sheet. James Tedesco was one of the Roosters’ best, setting up a try, two-line breaks, busting 8 tackles and running for 188 metres, whilst Harry Grant stepped up for the Storm, scoring a try and setting up two others, whilst also making 40 tackles and running for over 100 metres.
Roosters’ Overs Dominance to Continue
The Storm opened solid 7.5-point home favourites on the look ahead line, before re-opening at the same number. This quickly changed after team lists dropped on Tuesday afternoon, with the Storm dropping to just 2.5-point favourites after Craig Bellamy decided to rest a bunch of stars, and Harry Grant was confirmed to be out due to suspension. They are still listed as 2.5-point favourites for this Friday Night clash, and it’s hard to know what to make of it. If both these teams were full strength, I would have the Storm a 9.5/10.5-point home favourite here, however with the key losses of Grant and Hughes, added in with the resting of other key players, it’s easy enough to see why the spread is 2.5. Whilst I would heavily lean towards the Storm to cover here, I’ll leave this alone for now. The Roosters have slightly more to play for, and that may be enough to keep this close.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 44.5 and hasn’t moved all week. This is where I will look to jump in on this game, as I make a fair total 49.5 and believe there’s upside, given the turnover at the Storm. With the edges looking different, the Storm defence could have some holes open up that aren’t usually there. The last two games involving these teams have seen over 60 points in each, and I’ll back this in to go over 44.5.
Adding to my love of this play is the Roosters’ overs dominance this season, with 14 of their 22 games going over, the most of any team in the competition.
Over 44.5 points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Storm vs Roosters Player Prop Bet
Prince Papi of AAMI Park
Papenhuyzen seems to grow another leg when he’s playing at home, and with points on offer this week, I love the fullback to get a four pointer.
Ryan Papenhuyzen (1+ try)
$2.10
Same Game Multi: Storm vs Roosters
Leg 1: Over 45.5 points – See best bet.
Leg 2: R Papenhuyzen (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: D Tupou (1+ try) – Continues scoring tries, with 8 in his past 5 games. Tupou will be coming up against an inexperienced winger this week, no matter which Storm winger he faces, and the veteran will get another try here.
SGM Odds: $5.25 at Dabble
Storm vs Roosters Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday 29th August
Location: AAMI Park - Melbourne
Time: 8:00pm AEST
Weather: Rain, 10 degrees
Odds: Storm ($1.65) vs Bulldogs ($2.25)
Line: Storm (-3.5)
Points: 44.5
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2025 NRL season, so make sure to head over to out NRL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all our free content.
Where to Watch Storm vs Roosters
Watch the Storm vs Roosters match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Storm vs Roosters Tips at Neds!
Not familiar with Neds? Check out our full Neds review here, or by clicking the banner below.
