It’s time for another instalment on the pinnacle of rugby league – State of Origin – all eyes will be on Brisbane on Wednesday night for the showpiece event. The action is set to be exhilarating on the field as two great rivals go at one another. Strap yourselves in, this is expected to be a blockbuster match. New South Wales head into this game as holders of the shield and face a tough task of starting the series in Brisbane.
Check out our full preview and tips for Game 1 of the State of Origin below and if you’re keen to play along with our tips, consider joining Dabble - One of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the country!
2025 NRL State of Origin Game 1 Predictions & Tips
Queensland vs New South Wales Preview
This series appears to be one of transition. There is plenty of change heading into the 2025 instalment of State of Origin. Despite a successful 2024, New South Wales head into this year with a new coach; Laurie Daley returns to the Blues head position and will want to prove that he is again capable after previously delivering the Blues success. While somewhat short-lived, there are plenty of positive stories being spun about his reemergence. A renewed focus from the Maroons will make them hungry to overturn the result from last year. Billy Slater was out coached and unsettled in the 2024 campaign, an unusual outcome for a meticulous coach (and player). It is rare that Queensland enters a lull for too long and if the thought emerges that they are, they lift to another level and remind people that they’re wrong. The first game will start in Queensland this season, giving an early advantage to the Maroons. There are plenty of lingering questions both on and off the field of both teams. New faces and combinations bring uncertainty, but the same intensity in Origin is set to be retained. It’s a brutal form of rugby league but one which leaves everyone wanting more.
Maroons or Blues? Here's our State of Origin Game 1 Tip
The odds for this game should be far closer than what is listed. The Blues appear to be the more capable team, while also having fewer debutants, the Queenslanders have several key inclusions that with improve their cause. The loss of Hunt is huge for them; their bench rotation and experience are now inferior. Bring back in Tino and Ponga, with a healthy Munster and Grant, suddenly, there is a renewed confidence north of the border. The Maroons have started the past 3 series as winners also; they know how to start well and will thrive on ambushing their more fancied opponents.
It is unbelievable to think of the disparity between these two sides given the home ground advantage also. The Maroons have a 64% record here comparted to the Blues 34%. Any true rugby league fan will know the advantage the Maroons have. They will also be aware that you should underestimate them at your own risk.
While the momentum and strength appears to be with the Blues, the safer option it to invest around this game being a close contest. Only 4 times since 2011 has a Game 1 fixture been decided by more than 10 points. The changing face of rugby league in 2025 may contribute to this being toppled but the facts are there for all to see; Game 1 is a fixture whereby teams are defensively minded; they are tense and do not want to make a mistake. Use this to your advantage and take this game to be yet another close contest, with either team capable of winning this contest.
Either Team 8.5 or less
$1.95 (2 Units)
NRL State of Origin Game 1 Best Prop Bets
Who Scores the First Try?
Since 2011, a forward has only scored twice in the series opener (Cordner – NSW – 2016 & Hunt – QLD – 2024). Wingers have scored 4 times, centres 4 times (4 of the past 6 years to be exact), halves twice and a fullback once. It is a good sign for the eventual winner too, with 9 of the teams who have scored first going on to win the match. This could be useful for punters who are interested in a live bet.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Lomax $8.50 at Ladbrokes – There is no doubt that wing is his best position, and he excelled last season here. Another strong showing in this position is expected and he will be out to make a statement to reward the faith of selectors leading into this match.
Value = Crichton at $15 at Ladbrokes – Cometh the moment, cometh the man. Crichton has improved in every area he has been exposed to. The 2025 edition of the State of Origin Series should be no different.
Queensland
Best Bet = Xavier Coates $10 at Neds – He has been dynamic for Melbourne this season and will again be a threat down the left edge. Expect the Maroons playmakers to make use of his advantage in the air also.
Value = Tabuai-Fidow $13 at Neds – A quiet season by his expectations, the Hammer is now closer to the ball. Word is that Crichton will also be on the other side, allowing him to take advantage of Mitchell’s eagerness in defence.
Man of the Match Prediction
This is a betting market which comes with a warning; usually, the best player doesn’t always win the award and controversy reigns once it is named. This is a market which you would be encouraged to stay away from or invest no more than 0.5 units. However, we will provide an insight if you wish to have an investment.
In the 14 Game 1 Origin matches since 2011, players from the spine (1, 6, 7 or 9) have a 50% success rate; interestingly, a forward (Cotter – QLD) won for the first-time in 2023 since 2017. Look at the key players for each side. There is greater value on players who may not play in the spine but will be influential to the outcome of the contest; given this should be a tight contest, perhaps a middle forward will be influential to the outcome of this game. The obvious selections are the shorter ones, with those players needing to have strong games if their teams are to win.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Cleary $5.50 at Neds – It is the safe option for the Blues as they welcome back their key playmaker to the fold. His calm presence will undoubtedly have a positive impact. Even in times of trouble for his club team, he appears to find something special.
Value = Edwards $13 at Neds – While not gathering the same attention as other players in the team, his inclusion is crucial to their success. Expect another solid game from him, with his defensive organisation as important as ever to his team’s success.
Queensland
Best Bet = Munster $8.50 at Ladbrokes – His form at club level has been great so far this season. Refocussed and hell bent on producing his best, expect a strong game from a player who has been ‘missing’ in more ways than one in recent years of Origin, but always manages to ‘show up’.
Value = Cherry-Evans $11 at Ladbrokes – He has had a lot on his mind recently, but the comfort of the Maroons set-up should allow him to escape and bring out his best play. He is wiser than ever and will be ready to pick apart the Blues team as other players establish a platform for him.
Over or Under? Our Total Points Prediction
The average points scored in Game 1 Origin fixtures since 2011 is 30.8 points. They are traditionally tight, defensive orientated encounters. There has been only three times since 2011 that games were won by a 13+ margin also (2017, 2021 & 2025 – two by NSW and one by QLD). This game look headed for the same outcome as each team doesn’t take the usual number of risks that would come at an NRL level. You need to factor this into your decision making prior to an investment.
Total Points – Under 39.5 $1.90 at Dabble – Consider adding this to a SGM or other sports multi.
Queensland vs New South Wales Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Date: Wednesday 28th May
Time: 8:05pm (AEST)
Odds: Queensland ($2.25) vs New South Wales ($1.65)
Line: Queensland +2.5
Total: 38.5
Queensland vs New South Wales Team Lineups
Queensland
1. Kaylan Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Tom Dearden 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Beau Fermor 17. Trent Loiero Reserves: 18. Kurt Mann 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Mitch Barnett 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Connor Watson15. 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Max King Reserves: 18. Campbell Graham 19. Stefano Utoikamanu 20. Haumole Olakau’atu
Where To Watch the State of Origin?
You can watch the Maroons vs Blues live and free on Channel 9, while full replays will be shown on Kayo Sports!
Tail our NRL State of Origin Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
