NFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2023-24: Week 5

The NFL keeps rolling, as we enter the 2^nd month of the season with a 10-game Monday morning slate of games, with 6 in the early window, and 4 in the late. With an average total of 44.5 points, the scoring isn’t expected to be any more than average, however there are a couple of games that project to be high scoring, and are games we should be looking at to stack in. These games include the Chiefs/Vikings (52.5), Eagles/Rams (50), and Giants/Dolphins (47.5).

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Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa - $15,250

We get Tua at a slight discount this week, after a sluggish game offensively for the Dolphins in week 4. And whilst the Giants haven’t been horrible against opposing quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points allowed, they haven’t exactly taken on a murderer’s row of fantasy QBs. Tua could go nuclear against one of the 3 worst teams in football, as he currently leads the league in passing grade, yards per attempt, and ranks 9^th in adjusted completion percentage. He is dominant against man-coverage, which the Giants run at a high percentage. After dropping 70 just two weeks ago, expect another high score here for the Dolphins.

Anthony Richardson - $13,570

Richardson is still not being priced up appropriately in my opinion, and is a great option here at a slight discount on the high-priced QBs. A-Rich has 4 rushing touchdowns, to go with his 3 passing touchdowns, and currently leads the league in explosive plays, despite missing 1 ½ games with a concussion. Richardson has shown in this Shane Steichen run offense that he isn’t afraid to sling it downfield, and that should work this week against a Titans defence that concedes the 6^th highest passer rating, has given up the 6^th highest yards per attempt, whilst also allowing the 3^rdhighest completion percentage above expectation to deep throws. 

Running Backs 

Bijan Robinson – 15,460

Bijan is a whisker away from a breakout game in fantasy. His involvement is constantly improving, as he has played in at least 72% of snaps in this past 3 games. Whilst his rushing ability is well above average, it’s in the receiving game where he makes the difference, ranking 2^nd in targets, 3^rd in routes run, and 3^rd in receiving yards, amongst all running backs. This week, he gets a Texans defence that ranks 29^th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, whilst allowing the 7^th highest explosive run rate, and the 11^th highest yards after contact. All he needs now is to get into the endzone. Could this be the week? If it is, you need the rookie running back in your team.

De’Von Achane - $10,970

This dude is a stud. In the two games he has played a decent number of snaps in, he has scores of 54.3 and 30, and has 6 total touchdowns. He also has over 300 rushing yards in his last two starts. Achane is the RB1 at the Dolphins, and with a plus matchup this week against the Giants, Achane needs to be in your squad. The Giants allow the fourth-highest explosive run rate, 10^th highest yards after contact, whilst conceding the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Achane leads all running backs in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. 

Breece Hall - $9,330

Hall has been held back to start the season, but Head Coach Robert Saleh has come out with the news all fantasy players were waiting for, and it’s that the 2^nd year running back is no longer on a snap count. Over the first 4 weeks, Hall has played less than 50% of all offensive snaps in every game for the Jets, I expect to see that number bumped up well over 60% this week. He gets a great matchup against the Broncos, who rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs, and bottom 3 in explosive run rate, missed tackles allowed per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Hall should eat this week.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase - $15,780

This could be the last week I play anything Bengals related, but the positive news for a Chase breakout this week all looks good. He was vocal after last week’s mediocre performance, claiming he’s “Always f#%kin open” to the media after the game. Joe Burrow hasn’t been seen on the Injury Report this week, and everyone is doubting this Bengals team. Added to the narrative based reasons to pick Chase, the stats give us hope too. Chase’s numbers again zone coverage, which he will see plenty of this week, are superb. His first-read share percentage is 41%, air-yard share 42%, and target share 30.5%. With Tee Higgins likely out, or at best limited, Chase will be fed this week.

Tyreek Hill - $16,780

Tyreek continues my love for the Dolphins in this slate, in what could be a great spot to stack this explosive offense. Hill will see plenty of man coverage this week against the Giants, which is not the plan against Hill, who can burn any cover corner. Hill leads the Dolphins with a 25% target share, 51.3% air-yard share, and 4.75 yards per route run against man-coverage this season. The Giants rank middle of the pack in terms of conceding fantasy point to wide receivers, however as mentioned in the Tua write up, they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of fantasy king wide receivers. This could get really ugly.

Marquise Brown - $9,340

Brown, and the Cardinals, have been a pleasant surprise this season. Whilst they get a potentially rough match up this week against the Bengals defence, I like Brown at the price as a cheap WR2 type player. With three straight scores in the 16-18 range, the floor is nice at the price. Since the addition of Michael Wilson as a starting receiver, Brown’s numbers have significantly improved, to where he now commands a 29% target share and 42% air-yard share. The more quarterback Josh Dobbs gets in sync with his WR1, the better Brown will look. With the amount of elite wide receivers in this slate, you’ll want two of them, so Brown is a nice cheap option with a good floor for your squad to save some money.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta - $9,310

LaPorta has been a beast to start the season, and looks every bit the top 5 tight end in the NFL in just 4 starts. LaPorta ranks 2^nd in the league for yards per route run, 4^th in target share, 12^th in YAC per reception, and 14^th in first-read share amongst tight ends. This week, he gets a great matchup against a Carolina team that has been burnt by tight ends this season, despite facing no-one besides Hockenson last week. The Panthers defence aren’t allowing too many targets to tight ends, but the targets they do allow are big ones. LaPorta is currently third in the league in points per game by tight ends in fantasy, and I see him having a big game this week against the Panthers.

Tyler Higbee - $6,860

Higbee is a nice mid-priced target at tight end this week, with a matchup against the Eagles on tap, who have been horrible against tight ends for years. This season, the Eagles have conceded the third most fantasy points, 6^th most receiving yards, and 9^th highest yards per reception to opposing tight ends. With Cooper Kupp back, targets may be reduced for Higbee, however it might also get him better chances at getting open, with the defence now having to deal with Kupp, Nacua, and Atwell. Higbee is a matchup play here, with TE1 upside based off of this.

D/ST

Detroit Lions - $5,060

The Lions are taking on the anaemic Panthers offense at home this week, and they could be in for a huge game on defence and special teams. In their 3 wins this season, the Lions D/ST unit has scores of 9, 16, and 10. The Lions currently rank 9^th in the league for sacks, whilst the Panthers have given up the 8^th most sacks by a team this season. Whilst the Lions have struggled for takeaways this season, at home in an intimidating environment, rookie QB Bryce Young will surely fumble at least once, and more than likely throw at least one pick, as the Panthers will be chasing in this game.

Baltimore Ravens - $4,960

I can’t quite believe the price on the Ravens D/ST unit, as they take on the Steelers in the game with the lowest total this week, and 2^nd lowest total of the entire season. This matchup has a 12-9 scoreline written all over it, and even a loss should still see a decent score for these Ravens D/ST units. They are always well coached, and offer a solid floor at this position with the likelihood of such little scoring in this game.

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