Thursday Night Football (Friday AEDT) in Week 11 brings the Patriots and Jets to Gillette Stadium in a true AFC East test. New England has been one of the league’s surprise stories this season, while the Jets are trying to build on a late spark and stop a slide that cost them early momentum. With division positioning on the line and short-week prep in play, this one should be physical, fast-paced and full of situational football elements that matter late.
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NFL Week 11 Jets at Patriots Betting Tips
Friday, 12.15pm (AEDT)
New England Patriots
New England enters at 8–2 and playing like one of the AFC’s hottest teams. The club has gotten more consistent on both sides of the ball, the offense finding rhythm under 2nd year quarterback Drake Maye while the defense has remained stingy in key moments. New coach Mike Vrabel has settled the locker room and installed a disciplined approach that’s paid dividends through the first half of the season.
The Patriots have kept a relatively clean injury ledger for this week’s home game, and their game plan is built around physical football: run to set up play action, protect the quarterback, and force opponents into third-and-long. Their red-zone defense and third-down efficiency have been standout metrics that tilt close games in their favor. Expect New England to emphasize ball control and situational execution on a quick turnaround.
New York Jets
The New York Jets are 2–7 but arrive with momentum after back-to-back wins that have at least halted the panic button. The culture shift under head coach Aaron Glenn has shown signs of life as the team’s defense and special teams have produced timely plays, but inconsistencies on offense and health on the perimeter remain concerns. Glenn’s approach is getting results defensively, and the Jets will lean on that identity in Foxborough.
Injuries and protection issues have hamstrung the Jets’ ability to sustain drives, and the status of key playmakers will determine whether they can compete for four quarters. New York needs clean quarterback play and a controlled ground game to keep this within reach; otherwise they risk being put in a one-dimensional spot against a Patriots unit that thrives on forcing predictable situations. Expect the Jets to be physical up front and try to flip field position whenever possible.
Prediction
On balance, I see New England sustaining its form and using home-field advantage to control tempo. The Patriots’ combination of efficient offense, stout situational defense and a stable coaching plan gives them the edge in a short-week scenario where preparation matters. If they execute their game plan, establish the run, protect Maye, and win third downs, they should take over late.
The Jets will fight and could manufacture a couple of game-changing plays, but over 60 minutes I expect the Patriots to be the steadier team. My pick: Patriots win by double digits, something like 27–13, with New England controlling the clock and forcing New York into too many obvious passing downs.
Patriots -12.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Player Prop
Hunter Henry Anytime TD
Henry has quietly become Drake Maye’s go-to safety valve in scoring territory. With Maye still adjusting to NFL coverages, the Patriots have leaned on their veteran tight end in red-zone situations where timing and trust matter most. Henry’s route tree around the goal line, slants, quick outs, and seam fades, fits perfectly with New England’s play-action looks, especially against an aggressive Jets front that can get caught over-pursuing.
Henry Anytime TD
$2.35 (1 Unit)
