Week 10 of the NFL season gets underway on Friday afternoon (AEDT) with the Miami Dolphins hosting the Baltimore Ravens. As always, Tom Kelly has you covered with his preview for the three marquee games of the week as well as betting tips for the rest.
Week 9 was a 7-7 week for the tips, taking our record to 71-65 at the halfway mark of the season. There are still a few byes to play out, so we have another 14 games this week. Remember to check out our NFL Tips page each week for regular updates.
NFL Week 10 Betting Tips
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Friday 11:20am AEDT
The Ravens are humming at this point in the season, rebounding from a bad loss before their bye to run down the Vikings in overtime last week. At 6-2 they haven’t exactly been able to limit opposition attacks, but they are doing enough to most weeks to give Lamar Jackson a chance. Jackson continues to pull defences apart with his dual-threat abilities, in particular this season leveraging a bigger pass volume into a lot more deep targets to Marquise Brown. A committee of veteran running backs is doing a good enough job to get by in the absence of several injured starters at the position.
Meanwhile the Dolphins are 2-7 and continuing to be bitten by the injury bug, with Will Fuller and Devante Parker still out, and Tua Tagovailoa questionable with his finger injury. If he misses again Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but I can’t see either of them keeping it close with Jackson & co. The Dolphins defensive unit has gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks, but still aren’t playing at the level we saw last season. In short, right now this, matchup is a good team against a bad team, so I’m happy to take on a decent sized spread.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium , Monday 12:15pm AEDT
Well the Chiefs gave us nothing to indicate they’re heading back towards their best in a grinding 13-7 win against a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers. While the star trio of Mahomes-Hill & Kelce are all still majorly involved, things continue to be noticeably clunky. Perhaps teams have worked them out to some degree, or they’re all just in average form at the same time. Throw in the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and it is a much less potent Chiefs team than we are used to. The defensive unit is not going any better, sitting in the top 5 for points conceded so far and struggling to slow down good opposition. At 5-4 this divisional matchup shapes as a crucial game if they are to get their season back on track.
The 5-3 Raiders are an underrated opponent, despite two of their three losses coming against weaker teams in the Bears & the Giants last week. There is nothing particularly electric about the way the team is playing, but the defense has stepped up this year with particularly impressive play from the pass rush unit (led by Maxx Crosby). They’re doing enough to allow to Derek Carr to keep the team in games with his efficient passing style. Since Jon Gruden was booted out the running back duo of Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake have settled into a better share fo the workload and are playing at a higher level. The big weak spot for the team is at wide receiver, where the departure of Henry Ruggs leaves just Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones as recognisable names. None of them could be considered a lead receiver, but some of that pressure is taken away by the bigger role of Darren Waller at TE.
Everything I’ve said suggests the Raiders are a red-hot chance in this game, but I’m still siding with the Chiefs due to the undeniable upside of their offense. We haven’t seen it much lately, but I don’t think it’s gone and I expect them to come out ready to play in this one.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium, Tuesday 12:20pm AEDT
The 7-2 Rams met their match last week when the Titans secured a comfortable win despite missing their #1 player. It means that the Rams still trail the Cardinals in the NFC West, but they have a comfortable lead over this weeks opponent (the 49ers are 3-5). The Rams have a significantly shorter injury list right now, with only 5 players not he injury report and none of them irreplaceable. It’s likely that the growing chemistry between Stafford, Woods, Goff & Henderson continues to show on the field, and that the Rams strong defensive unit will make life difficult for Jimmy Garropolo & co.
The 49ers injury curse has been strong again this season, with their RB group being tested again wit JaMycal Hasty and Elijah Mitchell both on the injury report. George Kittle was good on his return last week, but it still a week-to-week injury risk. Various lineman and defenders are also on the report, challenging their depth even further. They’ve essentially managed to beat the teams they should beat this season, and struggled against the stronger teams. With the Rams one of the stronger teams in the NFL this season, I fully expect the trend to continue and the visiting Rams to score a comfortable victory.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins - See Above
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts - Colts -10.5 ($1.95 at Sportsbet)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots - Browns +1.5 ($1.94 at Sportsbet)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys - Cowboys -9 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets - Bills -13 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans - Titans -2.5 ($1.84 at Sportsbet)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team - Buccs -9.5 ($1.86 at Sportsbet)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers - Lions +8.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers - Chargers -3 ($1.87 at Sportsbet)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals - Cardinals -10.5 ($1.93 at Sportsbet)
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers - Seahawks +3.5 ($1.86 at Sportsbet)
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos - Broncos -2.5 ($1.85 at Sportsbet)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders - See Above
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers - See Above