Friday night is Manikato Stakes Night at The Valley with a huge crowd expected on course to view the Group 1 race over 1200m.
The only concern is the 20mls of rain that is predicted to hit on the night but as we have seen with the Caulfield track last week, race tracks air out quite well these days. In saying that, punters will have to respect horses that can handle the Soft surface if the rain does come before the first race.
The following day is Cox Plate Day but let's try and concentrate on this card first which is of high quality.
Paulele for the Cummings team will be the likely favourite in the race of the night.
Brendan Bunworth has previewed every race on the Moonee Valley card, so check out his preview and free racing tips below!
Moonee Valley Betting Tips: Friday, October 21st
Race 1
(5) Look Sharpish for Team Corstens and Damien Oliver ran on quite well for fifth at Pakenham last start when beaten by only 1.5L and the rise in distance should suit. She won’t want any rain but being in the first race she will obviously get first use of the Moonee Valley surface and hopefully it will still be on the Good side. Ollie should be able to position her up nicely from barrier four and i expect her to settle around midfield.
(6) Tokorangi is down in class after racing against some very good horses of late. She is another who won’t want it wet but again race one is a bonus. Her 12th in the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes looks bad on form, but she did only lose by 5L.
(7) Shezadandi won’t mind if the rain comes early and her second in the Pinker Pinker Stakes at Cranbourne was very good on a Heavy surface. She is another who will settle around midfield.
(8) Tagomago is going for two in a row and barrier one might play to advantage in race one. I expect Damien Lane will settle third behind the leader.
(5) Look Sharpish
$11 (1 Unit)
Race 2
(4) Grandslam is the pick (if the track is Good) as it is currently 48 hours prior to the race. If the rain comes before the first, then punters will have to respect my second selection. Grandslam is a quality horse who is resuming and has got his fitness up with two recent trials. He has won three of 12 on Good ground and did match it with some quality horses last prep. Jmamie Kah takes the ride, tick.
(3) Regardsmaree wasn't too bad last start in the Weekend Hussler Stakes when second last beaten 4L. He didn't have much luck and if you go on his run previous to that against IwishIwin he was only 3L behind that quality horse. Respect.
(6) Winning Partner was only 1.5L behind the quality Visinari last start and a Good or Soft track will be fine for him.
(7) Eluding is fitter now and did return to form with a nice second at Caulfield on a Heavy 10 last time. First try at The Valley.
(4) Grandslam
$4.80 (1 Unit)
Race 3
(7) Vultan was better last time when second behind Stylish Enuff at Ballarat and now that he is third up he should be a lot fitter now. He won't mind if the rain comes on Friday and will likely come in as a result. His two wins were on the Soft and Heavy so he will be hard to beat if the track gets downgraded on Friday afternoon.
(9) Rattle and Bang has been knocking on the door his last couple and he should get a nice sit in this race for Blake McDougall who takes the ride for the first time.
(4) Stylish Enuff beat Vultan so has to be included. He will likely lead this race for Linda Meech who is a great jockey on front runners.
(6) Demando has a wide barrier to contend with in 11 but would be my selection if he drew better.
(7) Vultan
$4.40 (2 Units)
Race 4
(10) Yowie for John Sadler and Damien Lane was backed to win before going out for a spell (fourth) but I’m going on his debut 1000m win when Lane was also in the saddle. That was on a Good surface and if it stays dry he can beat the Waller favourite.
(3) Great Barrier Reef for Waller and JMac have barrier one and should get a nice sit just in behind the leader. He was only 3L Behind Giga Kick last start at Flemington and we all know how Giga Kick performed last weekend at Sydney.
(1) Shalaman is very fit now but barrier 10 worries me. He can lead but will he use up too much gas doing so?
(5) Field of Flutes won well at Warrnambool last start when starting long odds on. One to watch.
(10) Yowie
$6.00 (1 Unit)
Race 5
*Scratched* (13) Night of Delight for Team Hayes and Dean Yendall combine as first emergency here and he should gain a run in the 955m sprint. The surface won't worry him and Yendall steered him to a good victory here a fortnight ago after settling fifth in the run. I think he will settle in the same area here and will be very close to the action in the final 50m.
(3) Taunting is the likely favourite and is a big chance to lead for Lane from barrier three. But as we know with these 955m races, the pressure will be on from the get-go. In saying that he did win from last two start back at Murray Bridge so is versatile.
(4) Nasturtium should be ready third up for the in-form Jmac who will steer him for the first time. He is another who will press for the lead.
(2) Direct will likely settle second outside the litter or fourth in the one one from barrier seven.
(13) Night of Delight
SCR
Race 6
(5) Hes The Real Deal can pinch this at odds I reckon. From barrier 11 i think he will come over and lead this field and i think he will be in the contest for a long way. He is fit now being fourth up and he won’t mind if the track is Good or Heavy. His run two starts back at Sandown Hillside was excellent when third with Brian Higgins on top. Higgins stays on and he knows the horse well now.
(4) Shibli is a danger but does get back a bit in its races. He ran on well at Sandown Hillside first up but might need one more.
(11) Worthily is another who will settle back and work home well. Flemington in two weeks may be better. He is lightly raced but has placed twice second up before.
(13) Mister Me is going for three in a row and Simon Wilde has him humming along. Yendall stays on and knows the horse well.
(5) Hes The Real Deal
$9.50 (1 Unit)
Race 7
(5) Paulele will start favourite and is the one to beat after winning well at Caulfield last start. JMac stays on and he has drawn a good barrier in six so should be able to position up nicely. He has won at The Valley before and the run behind Coolangatta wasn't too bad in the Moir when sixth. He should settle around fourth and I think this race maps out nicely for him.
(14) Coolangatta has drawn the same barrier as it did in the Moir and will try to use the same tactics. But Paulele is fitter this time. Kah stays on but his rivals will be wary of him getting a cheap run this time.
(7) Rothfire has drawn well in five and will want the rain to stay away. A Soft 5 or 6 is okay but if it buckets down let it go.
(9) September Run has been around The Valley five times now which helps and isn’t without hope. She was backed in last start at Caulfield when fifth and it was a useful run.
(5) Paulele
$3.70 (2 Units)
Race 8
(1) Head of State has burnt me a few times of late, but his run was better at The Valley last time when third. He is fifth up this time and if he doesn't win this that's probably it for this campaign. He will start at each-way odds which will be attractive, and I will hope for a Good track for this one. It's the story of the night but we have to monitor track conditions.
(5) Coolth will have to go back from barrier 12 but will be storming home late. He is probably the fittest horse in the race.
(8) Claidheamh Mor has a good barrier in three and will likely start favourite after a first and second in his first two runs this time in. McDougall takes the ride this time replacing Joe Bowditch.
(1) Head of State
$7.50 (1 Unit)
