Sunday in AFL Round 11 will see three matches play out, with the sandwich game being Melbourne vs Sydney at the MCG. The Demons are coming off a surprise upset win against the Lions, while the Swans were also last start winners.
We bring you our full match preview, best bet, prop bet, and Same Game Multi for the Demons vs Swans below, and if you’re keen to tail our tips, consider joining BoomBet for great odds!
Melbourne vs Sydney Prediction & Tips: 2025 AFL Round 11
Melbourne Hitting Their Straps
Melbourne has orchestrated a significant turnaround following a challenging 0-5 commencement to their 2025 campaign, achieving a 4-6 win-loss record. Their Round 10 performance, a determined 14.15 (99) to 13.10 (88) victory over the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, underscored their improved form. Despite trailing at each interval, Melbourne delivered a compelling final quarter, largely influenced by Max Gawn's commanding ruck performance (46 hitouts, 8 personal clearances), which contributed to a notable +18 contested possession differential. Jake Melksham's contribution of four goals and Kysaiah Pickett’s dynamic play (2 goals, 12 score involvements) were also instrumental in securing their fourth victory in five matches.
Can the Swans Start to Soar?
Sydney also enters this encounter with momentum, following a crucial 11.12 (78) to 9.8 (62) win against Carlton at the SCG in Round 10. Paralleling Melbourne's recent success, the Swans overcame a three-quarter-time deficit with a powerful five-goal final term. Isaac Heeney produced a best-on-ground display, accumulating 38 disposals, 10 clearances, and two vital goals, with Chad Warner also providing substantial impact through 30 possessions and two majors. Most importantly, that win keeps Sydney in contention for a top-eight spot and demonstrated their capability in high-pressure situations, even when initially conceding territory, as Carlton did with early inside 50 advantages.
Key Stats for the Match
Statistically, this game screams midfield battle. The Dees usually get on top in contested ball (often +10) and with Max Gawn giving them an armchair ride in the ruck (a +15 to +25 hitout advantage is pretty standard for him), they average around 38 clearances. The big question for Melbourne is always cashing in: they average around 53 inside 50s, but their goal kicking accuracy and making their marks inside 50 count can swing wildly. The Swans have a sharp midfield too, with their stars helping them to around 37 clearances per contest (a +9 differential on the season) and plenty of forward thrusts, averaging over 54 inside 50s with a hefty +24 differential. With Brodie Grundy also giving them good ruck service (+71 team hitout differential for the year), they get their chances. For Sydney, it’s also about making those entries pay and converting from their marks up forward.
Demons or Swans? Here’s Our Melbourne vs Sydney Tip
This fixture is a huge one for both clubs. Melbourne will aim to consolidate their recent improved form against a fellow finals aspirant, relying on their strength in contested play and Gawn's ruck dominance. Sydney, conversely, will seek to build upon their recent victories, as they strive for greater consistency in converting attacking opportunities. While Melbourne's recovery has been noteworthy, Sydney has the class edge and are our selection in what should be a compelling contest.
Sydney to Win
$1.90 (2 Units)
Melbourne vs Sydney Player Prop Bet: Consistent Campbell
Our Best Player Prop: Braeden Campbell 15+ Disposals
Braeden Campbell (Sydney) has been extremely consistent from a week-by-week basis, always hovering around the 15-16 touches. The good news for punters is he’s hit the 15 disposal mark in seven of his last eight games yet remains a juicy price north of $2 on Sunday. Campbell also had 16 disposals last time these teams met, so there’s plenty in his favour and I’m more than happy to be on board at the $2.25 quote.
Braeden Campbell 15+ Disposals
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
Melbourne vs Sydney: Same Game Multi
Kozzie Pickett 2+ Goals: Having a fantastic season and has kicked two goals in each of his last two games, and he also has a bag of five to his name this year. Great odds.
Chad Warner Score Anytime: Kicked two goals last week and is always a danger in the forward 50. He also will thrive with the extra space at the ‘G.
Isaac Heeney 25+ Disposals: Was having a quietish season until last weekend where he exploded for 38 disposals. I’m expecting another strong performance form Heeney in a big game for the Swans.
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Melbourne vs Sydney Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 25th May
Time: 3:20pm AEST
Location: MCG
Weather: Sunny, 17 degrees
Odds: Melbourne ($1.90) vs Sydney ($1.90)
Line: Even
Points: 167.5
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Where To Watch Melbourne vs Sydney?
Watch the Demons vs Swans match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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