The twilight fixture on Saturday sees Hawthorn and North Melbourne face off in Launceston. Can North Melbourne cause another upset and get back to back wins for the first time this season? Or will the Hawks continue their push for a place in the top four?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Kangaroos below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 16
Credentials Proven
After three straight losses between Rounds 10-12, there were plenty of questions around Hawthorn’s status as a contender in season 2025. However, with gritty wins over the Bulldogs and Crows in their last two games, has raised optimism for the Hawks as we head into the back half of the season. The Hawks looked in all sorts of trouble having kicked just two goals in the first half, but they lifted their pressure and strangled Adelaide in the second half, holding one of the most dangerous teams in the comp to just one goal in a half. Hawthorn’s defence held up remarkably well, conceding just five goals despite having -12 contested possessions, -7 inside 50’s and -5 clearances.
Kanga Kanga Kanga
After an honorable loss against Fremantle in Round 14, the Roos came out with serious intent against the Blues, slamming on eight straight goals during the second and third quarter to set up an 11 point win. The final margin didn’t reflect the Kangaroos dominance, who tried to shut down the game early in the final quarter which allowed Carlton to make the margin more respectable. North Melbourne’s efficiency inside forward 50 was as good as it’s been under Alistair Clarkson, converting 45.2% of their inside 50’s into scores. The Kangaroos will be looking to build on the momentum as they take on one of the strongest teams in the comp.
The Stats That Matter
Hawthorn’s game is built around pressure, ranking 2nd for pressure acts and 5th for tackles and the Hawks will need to bring their pressure game given how good the Roos have been around clearances. North Melbourne are the number one clearance team in the competition, but the Hawks have found ways to score from clearances, ranking 2nd in the league for scores from centre bounce and 5th in the AFL for scores from stoppages.
The scoring capacity between the two teams looms as a major difference, with Hawthorn having scored 90+ points in seven games this season, while North have only done it twice, and are yet to score 90 points since Round 2.
Hawks or Kangaroos? Here’s our Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Tip
Hawthorn have completely had their way against the Kangaroos, winning their last six games against North Melbourne. The last four games between the two teams has seen Hawthorn come away with wins margins of 124, 45, 19 and 46 points. Although North Melbourne have shown enough this season that they shouldn’t get blown off the back in the manner they did last season, there is a gap between these two sides.
Hawthorn have dominated against the bottom eight sides in the competition, with a 6-0 record against teams currently 11th or lower on the ladder. Since 2001, Hawthorn has won 63 of 82 games at UTAS Stadium and are currently on a 8 game winning streak in Launceston. The Hawks are an incredibly difficult side to be in Launceston, and will be too strong for the Roos.
Hawthorn -31.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prop Bet: Sheezy Ball
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Harry Sheezel 30+ Disposals
Since Round 10, Harry Sheezel has seen more CBAs and an uptake in his midfield minutes and the young superstar is having a massive impact on games. Sheezel has recorded 30, 32 and 28 disposals across his last three games and looks set for another big outing on Saturday afternoon.
Harry Sheezel 30+ Disposals
$2.40 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Same Game Multi
Harry Sheezel 25+ Disposals: As highlighted above Sheezel has had a return to form with an increased midfield role, and he’s got a strong record against the Hawks. Sheezel's three games against Hawthorn in his career have produced returns of 26, 30 and 26 disposals.
Colby McKercher 25+ Disposals: In a flip with Sheezel, Colby McKercher’s move to being the main man at half back has been huge for the Kangaroos. McKercher has recorded 29, 27 and 35 disposals in his last three games.
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals: Jack Ginnivan is building a great couple months of form after being dropped earlier in the season. Ginnivan has kicked 2+ goals in five of his last eight games and has kicked 2+ goals in all four of his games against North Melbourne across his career.
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: UTAS Stadium, Tasmania
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 10 degrees
Odds: Hawthorn ($1.15) vs North Melbourne ($5.50)
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs North Melbourne?
You can watch Hawthorn vs North Melbourne on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Tips at Dabble!
