Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Thursday, November 5th.
The Melbourne Cup carnival continues on Thursday with Oaks Day taking centre stage at Flemington! Josh Reed has you covered with his best bets for the day below! Remember, you can head to RacingBet for our in-depth previews of every metro race today.
We saw something similar on Cup day where the tables were turned up the straight in the first and I think it will happen again. (5) Naples was very solid in her debut run coming from 11th to finish 1.5 lengths in third despite being held up around the 400m mark. Expect John Allen to have learnt from that and sit a little bit closer in the run and I think she can make the favourite vulnerable late in the piece. I think the odds available for her to turn the tables are appealing and well worth a shot each – way.
This is a massive race even with Fiesta and Graff coming out. You still have (3) Garner vs (6) Ancesty vs (8) Villiami vs (9) Varda, it is simply mouth-watering. I have gone with (9) Varda here and banking on a Godolphin/John Allen race to race double. She is aiming for five wins in a row and is in the best form of her career. She has raced up the Flemington straight three times for once second, though they were all earlier in her career. She was beaten by Flit in her second race of her career, beaten by Sisstar in her second preparation and then beaten by her rival (3) Garner by three lengths who she meets just 0.5kg better. But hear me out, she is a lot better this preparation and I think they have figured her out. Yes she gets a harder race here, but I love the figures she has been running in the lead up to this.
The highlight of the day around the country is this race, The Kennedy Oaks. This is a very narrow edition with three winning chances in my opinion. I can’t go away from the impressive favourite in (1) Montefilia who is just going leaps and bounds in the right direction. She was solid three starts ago over the 1400m in the Tea Rose behind Dame Giselle before winning the Group 1 Flight Stakes and Group 1 Spring Champion. She has been freshened for this and I think that’s going to be the advantage she will have in this contest with a fresh fit body. She is drawn perfectly to sit in an ideal position throughout and will absolutely love the big Flemington straight. Both her main rivals (2) Personal and (6) Miravalle are on the quick back-up which can be seen as ideal, though I think she has panels on both of them.
This girl impressive at Moonee Valley! (6) Written Beauty slaughtered her rivals over the 1000m by 3.5 lengths and they are lucky it was not over further. The only concern if there is any is the fact this is up the straight, which has been a problem for some horses in the past, but she is classy and should overcome it. She is starting to near peak fitness and continues to break every barrier that has landed in front of her. Only bad luck beats her in my opinion.
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