Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday, May 23rd.
With the Adelaide racing carnival wrapped up and the revised Brisbane Winter carnival approaching, our attention has turned to Queensland in the lead up to June 6's Group 1 feature race day.
Tim Geers has previewed the main races at Eagle Farm on Saturday and offered his best bets on the card.
Best Bet: Race 7 - (5) Kinane
Best Value Bet: Race 4 - (9) Dissolution
A small each way bet to get us started in Brisbane with one horse piquing my interest. (9) Dissolution is David Vandyke's only runner for the day and he operates at about a 27% strike rate here at Eagle Farm. He was very heavily backed last start and he justified the money, fighting on to win by a nose at Doomben, having run 10th, 11th and 9th in his three starts before that. He's placed in both starts at Eagle Farm and the track has been upgraded into the good range, which is important for him as he isn't effective on soft going. Has a tricky draw in 12, but he's in winning form now and as the stable's only runner today, I'd expect him to go well again at each way odds.
(16) Stylish Saga went down as the $1.60 favourite first up at Doomben but it's worth respecting that SP profile and following him again today with $5.50 on offer. The rider reported post-race that he resented being inside horses; he shouldn't have that problem from barrier 16 today. He gets the blinkers on for the first time and on his form last prep, alog with his first up SP, I expect him to bounce back today. The danger and value could be (9) Totally Charmed, who won well first up at the Sunshine Coast resuming from a year off the track. You'd think there would be improvement to come given his lengthy break. He's placed in all three starts at Eagle Farm and draws well in barrier 5. Expecting him to be right there in the finish at $7.50.
The first of the Group races for the day is for the two-year-olds. I'm leaning to (1) Rothfire here, who returns from a 10-week break having last been seen going down as the $1.20 favourite at the Gold Coast. Prior to that his form was impeccable, notching up three straight wins with combined margin of 15L. There's a few things that have me siding with him over the favourite (7) Isotope. Isotope has been faultless in his two career starts, bolting in by 10L on debut before overcoming one or two difficulties last start to win impressively again. Both of these horses have won over 1110m at Doomben on a Soft 5. Rothfire ran 1:04.31 with a last 600m of 34.27, while Isotope's winning time was 1:04.45 with a last 600m 34.35. Now I am aware they were on different days and they can't be lined up precisely like that, but it does give us a little angle to work with. Eagle Farm is also a different track to Doomben and while Isotope is yet to race at Eagle Farm, Rothfire has won all three starts at the track. (2) Wild Ruler comes up from Sydney. He won on debut back in December and resumed with a narrow 2nd behind Macroura, who has since come out and won again to remain undefeated. It will be interesting to see how that form line lines up against the locals.
If the real (5) Kinane turns up, this is just all over isn't it? He couldn't have been more impressive winning the G3 Frank Packer Plate in Sydney last start, stamping himself as a major player wherever they decided to send him next. The form out of that race has already been franked, with the horse he beat (Bottega) coming out and winning his next start. He drops from 2000m to 1800m but I don't think that will be stopping him. He looks destined for better races and comes out of a strong Sydney race, taking on a bunch of horses from Brisbane who aren't anywhere near the same class. (14) Sky Horse is potentially a runner to keep safe from the Maher/Eustace yard in Melbourne. She's won her past two starts but draws poorly.
Very open race the Victory Stakes. (1) Kementari is suited back at set weights but I'm off him today and probably forever. There's any amount of winning chances in this. (7) Victorem started $6.00 first up in the G3 BRC Sprint but he bucked early in the race and just never recovered, finishing last of the 10 runners. He's been back to the trials since then. He was a Listed winner over this track and distance during last year's carnival. He's drawn well in barrier 4 which is important, given the ast 18 winners of this race have all jumped from a single-digit barrier. If you forgive him for that first up run and respect his SP profile, he looks a decent price at $14. (9) Signore Fox has been disappointing in two starts up in Sydney this prep, but they've been in pretty strong form races. He's won his only start at this track and distance and he has two wins from three starts when third up from a spell. Always have to respect this stable and $34 looks over the odds. (8) Vega One has been given two barrier trials leading into this and Jim Byrne replaces Baylee Nothdurft today. Will he be ready (and will the intent be) to win third up today? Or will they be waiting for the Stradbroke? He's none from three at this distance and Gollan has said all along he'll be better over further. (6) Niccanova has three wins from six starts first up and isn't hopeless at big odds, though he's another that is probably looking for further. (4) Tambo's Mate next best and the chances don't end there!
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